Vuelta Leading Contenders

[hfer07]

@hfer07

Do you know what Betancur's form is like? I heard he had a resporatory infection, which caused him to miss Burgos and of course gave him a setback for the Vuelta. I'm hoping with you, that he can achieve a podium or a stage win, but I'm in doubt about his preparation.

I honestly wasn't aware of any respiratory infection at all-but the rumor seems baseless to me since Ag2-r has categorically nominated him as team leader-which indicates to me he's on the right track. What I do know is that he's been training hard in Colombia & perhaps he's lacking racing rhythm, but I have no doubt he'll be very competitive at the Vulelta.

 

[jens_attacks]

i can tell you for now only 2 sure things:

1. ivan basso will win this bike race
2. belkin team leaders will collapse in the third week

 

[slosada]

I like some of the choices of the OP:
3 big names: Nibali, Valverde and Purito
3 Colombians
But 2 of the old guys: Basso and Sánchez.

However I also noticed that everyone has an issue:
Nibali, the best in this race, is not in top shape. There were news he went to Burgos already behind in the schedule, and the last Km in Lagunas de Neila was painful.
Bur as others have said: If he's around by the 3rd week, he will have a good chance.
Valverde and Purito came from Tour. Giro pre-Tour proved too hard for Evans and others. Can it be different this time? 3rd week will be really hard for them.

Betancur: He hasn't raced in a long time. He was reportedly sick to enter Burgos. I have question marks (on the sickness and his fitness)
Henao: I expected more in Poland, he was close but his ITT was not good nor did he try in other stages to take some time back (he lost a place in GC per day in the last 3 stages). Vuelta has stronger competition than Poland.

Uran: He took Poland easy... Will Sky support him in case he has better chances than Henao?
Basso: He did great in Burgos, better than Sánchez

I wil be rooting for the Colombians and expect one of them in the podium.
My guess is: Two of the big3 to fight for the GC, one Colombian in Podium, another Top-5 along Basso.

 

[Pentacycle]

I honestly wasn't aware of any respiratory infection at all-but the rumor seems baseless to me since Ag2-r has categorically nominated him as team leader-which indicates to me he's on the right track. What I do know is that he's been training hard in Colombia & perhaps he's lacking racing rhythm, but I have no doubt he'll be very competitive at the Vulelta.

Colombians don't need race rythm as proven by Nairo in the Tour. I have no doubt he'll show himself then

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I like to see Dan Martin do well, Nieve and Majka too.

However this will likely boil down to a battle of the old dogs: Basso, Valverde, J-Rod and Sanchez. Scarponi could even join the party.

Anyway, looking forward to the action.

 

[Gloin22]

I like some of the choices of the OP:
3 big names: Nibali, Valverde and Purito
3 Colombians
But 2 of the old guys: Basso and Sánchez.

However I also noticed that everyone has an issue:
Nibali, the best in this race, is not in top shape. There were news he went to Burgos already behind in the schedule, and the last Km in Lagunas de Neila was painful.
Bur as others have said: If he's around by the 3rd week, he will have a good chance.
Valverde and Purito came from Tour. Giro pre-Tour proved too hard for Evans and others. Can it be different this time? 3rd week will be really hard for them.

Betancur: He hasn't raced in a long time. He was reportedly sick to enter Burgos. I have question marks (on the sickness and his fitness)
Henao: I expected more in Poland, he was close but his ITT was not good nor did he try in other stages to take some time back (he lost a place in GC per day in the last 3 stages). Vuelta has stronger competition than Poland.

Uran: He took Poland easy... Will Sky support him in case he has better chances than Henao?
Basso: He did great in Burgos, better than Sánchez

I wil be rooting for the Colombians and expect one of them in the podium.
My guess is: Two of the big3 to fight for the GC, one Colombian in Podium, another Top-5 along Basso.

Why would you expect Henao to be winning in Poland?

His peak is Vuelta. Not Pologne.

And for his first race back from long break, 5th in GC is incredible... I honestly can't see many riders getting 5th in GC in in their first race back, especially with first two stagse being hell.

And Henao will be the nominated leader, it's been said few times.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Why is Basso getting so much love here?

The guy is what? 35? Has he done anything in the last year and a half (ie since Giro 2012) to indicate that he can top 5? I mean, 8th in Poland and 10th in Burgos is decent enough form, but hardly the sort of thing that would put the fear of God into the other GC riders.

 

[il_cobra]

just waiting for some no name spanish dopp.. i mean suffering from depression hard woker at podium. like nozal, mosquera and cobo
it's appears to be pretty open contenders field at this year race.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Why is Basso getting so much love here?

The guy is what? 35? Has he done anything in the last year and a half (ie since Giro 2012) to indicate that he can top 5? I mean, 8th in Poland and 10th in Burgos is decent enough form, but hardly the sort of thing that would put the fear of God into the other GC riders.

Wasn't he publicly predicting a podium position ?

I was impressed in Burgos - he looked strong if a little one-paced. Unlike most he's had this as the year's only objective.

On paper the Vuelta is never going to be ideal for him (not enough truly hard stages) but on the plus side it could easily cut up into a pretty moderate field. Even Nibali doesn't seem overly confident about his form

 

[il_cobra]

on other hand basso just was able to follow david arroyo's tempo on climb at burgos

such a degradation in few years

 

[greenedge]

I think Valverde will win- he was quiet at the start of the year compared to JROD and he sat up at the end of the TDF. Last year he rounded out the season very strongly and this year i think he will be even better at the Vuelta.

I expect Henao to continue the Colombians' run of best young rider jerseys.

 

[saneguy]

Nibali doesnt have form but he does have the benefit of rest / no fatigue. Question is can he reach the form in time? If so he will clearly out run the field. This, to my mind is the best chance for Purito to win. He was very reserved and quiet in the first 2 weeks of the Tour. And then rode very well in the 3rd week.

I still believe if Uran and Henao didnt have to domestique for Wiggins, then they had a good chance in the Giro. Both rode well and expect them to ride well again.

 

[Peter von]

I think Valverde will win- he was quiet at the start of the year compared to JROD and he sat up at the end of the TDF. Last year he rounded out the season very strongly and this year i think he will be even better at the Vuelta.

I expect Henao to continue the Colombians' run of best young rider jerseys.

I fear you're right, he also have a strong team compared to Rodriguez and have probably been mentally preparing himself since halfway through the Tour.

Basso might be very strong for once he haven't crashed while preparing for his big Grand Tour of the season, but still i don't believe him to be as strong as in 2010, or has the team to ride his usual steam engine tactics.

Nibali is very strong of cause, but all he has talked of since the Giro is the worlds, i think he is afraid that if he wins la Vuelta he will only be at 95% in Firenze, but what do i know, surprisingly enough he haven't called me to talk about priorities.

Uran/Henao might be the jokers in all this, they rode well together in the giro last year and i think SKY prefers to have them both in the mix since neither are top favorites from the start.

 

[the asian]

IMO Nibbles, Valverde, Purito and Henao will contend for the overall. Samu and Betancur have a shot at the podium. Martin is too inconsistent to be on the podium but should win a stage.

 

[SimonC]

I would agree with you if they had not ridden the Tour de France. You have to factor in the fatigue.

True but Nibali has stated he is going for stage wins unless he is trying to down play his chances and most of the other contenders will have ridden the Giro also.
As for riders like Basso he's well past his sell by date and will be being put out to pasture with Cadel Evans very soon.

 

[barmaher]

I wouldn't be putting a rider with a GT podium in the past three months out to pasture.

Basso, on the other hand......

 

[SafeBet]

on other hand basso just was able to follow david arroyo's tempo on climb at burgos

such a degradation in few years

basso is usually **** in prep races.
Either he's peaking too early or you should be scared of what he's gonna do in the vuelta.

Nibbles will take it easy in the first week and then see what happens. If he's within striking distance by the end of week 2 he'll try to win the whole thing, otherwise just stage hunting.

Betancur looks very good on this parcours. I'm gonna be bullish and say he's a top3 favorite if he's got the form.
Valverde is gonna be there too. 2013 looks a lot like 2012 for him, not full gas the whole tour.

 

[The Hitch]

I wouldn't be putting a rider with a GT podium in the past three months out to pasture.

Basso, on the other hand......

That's silly logic. Basso couldn't do the giro for health reasons. To say Evans is better at this moment because he beat basso in a race basso didn't take part in.

 

[Arredondo]

Basso had a good preparation in Burgos, and with Purito and Piti with their Tour legs on, he definitely can finish in the top-5 (or even on the podium)

Watch out for Horner though. He's got some really good form, is fresh and said in interviews that the Vuelta is his big goal of the season.

1. Nibali
2. Basso
3. Horner
4. Henao
5. Purito (although i really hope that he wins)

 

[Flamin]

basso is usually **** in prep races.
Either he's peaking too early or you should be scared of what he's gonna do in the vuelta.

Nibbles will take it easy in the first week and then see what happens. If he's within striking distance by the end of week 2 he'll try to win the whole thing, otherwise just stage hunting.

Betancur looks very good on this parcours. I'm gonna be bullish and say he's a top3 favorite if he's got the form.
Valverde is gonna be there too. 2013 looks a lot like 2012 for him, not full gas the whole tour.

Seriously?

 

[maxmartin]

Basso had a good preparation in Burgos, and with Purito and Piti with their Tour legs on, he definitely can finish in the top-5 (or even on the podium)

Watch out for Horner though. He's got some really good form, is fresh and said in interviews that the Vuelta is his big goal of the season.

1. Nibali
2. Basso
3. Horner
4. Henao
5. Purito (although i really hope that he wins)

Nah, Horner's form is so so, dropped like a stone by a second rate climber Tommy D and lose more than a min in that climb.

 

[Arredondo]

Nah, Horner's form is so so, dropped like a stone by a second rate climber Tommy D and lose more than a min in that climb.

Yeah, after four months inactivity, it's not really far to compare a guy who rides his first race after Catalunya with a rider who's coming to Colorado with tour-form (haven't seen him though)

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Yeah, after four months inactivity, it's not really far to compare a guy who rides his first race after Catalunya with a rider who's coming to Colorado with tour-form (haven't seen him though)

Horner could probably be most posters grandfather. I hope hes done and gets beaten to pulp.

 

[maxmartin]

Yeah, after four months inactivity, it's not really far to compare a guy who rides his first race after Catalunya with a rider who's coming to Colorado with tour-form (haven't seen him though)

then you can't say his current form is good, there is not any indication about that. Don't listen to Horner himself, he always talks big and he always fades in the GT. Plus he is getting older everyday.

 

[Arredondo]

then you can't say his current form is good, there is not any indication about that. Don't listen to Horner himself, he always talks big and he always fades in the GT. Plus he is getting older everyday.

If you win a mountain stage in your first race in four months, you're form is already quiet good i suppose. He doesn't get a lot of chances to lead a team in a GT of course.