Vuelta Stage 15: Alcalá la Real - Sierra Nevada (129.4 km)

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Here you can watch a preview of the last climbs of today's stage with Delgado and Valverde though I understand "nada". Nice to see Don Alejandro but sad he's not in Vuelta.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAqkFgqkYXE

Indestructible or what?

It was recorded before the Tour

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Breakaway candidates who could take it for the stage:

- Rafał Majka (unlikely after yesterday's effort, but if he decides he's interested in the GPM)
- Darwin Atapuma and Jaime Rosón (both came in at over 13 mins yesterday and don't have a leader to consider riding for like, say, the Yates brothers)
- Marc Soler (attacked the favourites group near the top of the penultimate climb yesterday, then sat up and came in over 16 mins down)
- Enric Mas (similarly was 18 minutes down, and may have more freedom if de la Cruz is going to start dropping off in his GC bid)
- Emanuel Buchmann (has shown good form setting up Majka in the Collado Bermejo stage, lost over 20 mins yesterday)
- Dani Navarro (not in good form, but can come into it, contract is due, knows the climb very well)
- Thomas de Gendt (he is Thomas de Gendt)
- Antonio Pedrero (Movistar still hunting that elusive stage win, and he's been climbing well alternated with rest periods, yesterday came in with the bus)
- David Arroyo (proven climber, well past his best but might save himself for one final bid for glory)
- Przemysław Niemiec (likewise, and came in half an hour down yesterday)
- Rein Taaramäe (he has to do SOMETHING, right? Hasn't come higher than 120th in any stage)
- a couple of Manzano-Postobon climbers. Suaza looked best yesterday, but Reyes is probably the better overall.

 

[Ikbengodniet]

I think one of the Yates brothers has to go in the break.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Alberto Contador will win this bike race.

Or add to his top 10 list. One of the 2

Or both.

 

[klintE]

Superman Lopez will win this bike race.

 

[Blanco]

Alberto Contador will attack on Hazallanas, Nibali on El Purche, and Lopez in last 5km. One of them will sneak away...

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Re:

You have to get rid of the Sky doms before the last 18km otherwise the train will squeeze all life out of the race.


Hopefully Nibs has some dirty pics of Vino to make Astana work with BM.

But even if most of Sky is dropped before the final climb, someone still needs to keep a high pace to prevent numerous Sky riders from returning. Lopez looks like the only rider willing to sustain an attack to me, but he won't get much rope now either.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

I think one of the Yates brothers has to go in the break.

AY would seem the logical choice since he's been shedding time, arguably deliberately, but two questions arise. Firstly, does he have the actual form to be able to make anything out of being in the break ? Secondly, is his actual racing style even conducive to been of much use in an "up the road" scenario ?

SY is a more adventurous racer than his brother and would arguably be a reasonable choice, either to make something out of being in the break or being of use "up the road". Only problem is that he's "running on fumes" and just hasn't the gas left in the tank for either scenario to be viable.

Realistically, Orica's best option would be Haig who is a stronger TTer than either Yates or Chaves and significantly better form than either Yates. The question is whether he would actually be better utulised up the road or close to Chaves .... and whether Chaves actually has the form to be able to take advantage of any team mate up the road.

 

[the_cutter]

Re: Re:

But even if most of Sky is dropped before the final climb, someone still needs to keep a high pace to prevent numerous Sky riders from returning. Lopez looks like the only rider willing to sustain an attack to me, but he won't get much rope now either.

Yeah, lots of things would have to happen for Sky to be dropped. If Nibali, Contador and Lopez try standalone moves they won't succeed. Moreover, even in a select group of 10 Froome will still have at least one dom at hand. Moreover moreover, even if say 4-5 guys get away and Froome is isolated behind somebody will start defending their GC place and help him. Just too many ifs here. So... an all day Sky train and uphill sprint in the last 3km is still the most likely result, but one can hope for more.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Yeah, lots of things would have to happen for Sky to be dropped. If Nibali, Contador and Lopez try standalone moves they won't succeed. Moreover, even in a select group of 10 Froome will still have at least one dom at hand. Moreover moreover, even if say 4-5 guys get away and Froome is isolated behind somebody will start defending their GC place and help him. Just too many ifs here. So... an all day Sky train and uphill sprint in the last 3km is still the most likely result, but one can hope for more.

Sad but true

 

[portugal11]

This stage is perfect for the sky train. Nothing will happen today

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

But even if most of Sky is dropped before the final climb, someone still needs to keep a high pace to prevent numerous Sky riders from returning. Lopez looks like the only rider willing to sustain an attack to me, but he won't get much rope now either.

Yeah, lots of things would have to happen for Sky to be dropped. If Nibali, Contador and Lopez try standalone moves they won't succeed. Moreover, even in a select group of 10 Froome will still have at least one dom at hand. Moreover moreover, even if say 4-5 guys get away and Froome is isolated behind somebody will start defending their GC place and help him. Just too many ifs here. So... an all day Sky train and uphill sprint in the last 3km is still the most likely result, but one can hope for more.

If the top guys start to attack right from the bottom of El Purche, there will be no Sky train for very long. Also the pace on Hazallanas must be very high. It's possible to derail them, but it will take lots of risks and more than one team involved.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Vincenzo Nibali will win this bike race.

 

[yaco]

I suspect one or two of the GC riders will attack on the second last climb.

 

[ice&fire]

Full stage broadcast starting in 20 minutes

 

[dacooley]

hoping for favourable wind confidions, otherwise any big action on sierra nevada can be neutralized. one will hardly call the 2009 and 2011 ascents epic...

 

[Bolder]

Re:

Unless an alliance happens between teams who want chaos, it will come down to the last climb. If *** goes haywire on the Hazallanas, they can get rid of Froome's entire team if they go hard enough up Hazallanas.

In 2011 (Stage 4) Froome finished with the GC bunch. According to CN, it was a really hot day.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/vuelta-a-espana-2011/stage-4/results/

Today, looking much cooler (around 30 in Monachil, but high teens in the mountains). Interestingly (and I had no idea), there was an ITT up Sierra Nevada in 1981...

 

[spalco]

Broadcast is live.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The fun begins

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Is it true we have already 25 stages of Vuelta in a row, that any Spaniard doesn't win?

 

[Climbing]

They say tailwind, not sure if that's the case at the finish as well.

 

[Inquitus]

Re:

Is it true we have already 25 stages of Vuelta in a row, that any Spaniard doesn't win?

Yep Stage 9 last year

9 28 August Cistierna – Alto del Naranco, Oviedo 164.5 km (102 mi) Medium-mountain stage David de la Cruz (ESP)

 

[ice&fire]

There must be about 150 riders willing to go on a breakaway

 

[DNP-Old]

Pantano trying repeatedly to get in the break.

 

[klintE]

Get in break or die trying competition