What will be the decisive stage(s) of the Tour?

[klmorgan]

After studying the maps, terrain & historical weather for stages 1 through 3-these might actually be good. In the past TDF opening stages have been a little predictable with bunch sprints at the end. These stages might actually be good: add in 1st week tour nervousness and these stages could be really good.
Stage 1: potential strong cross wind from the North Sea
Stage 2: Mini Ardennes classic
Stage 3: Cobbles
Add 1st week tour jitters and a little weather and I believe these 1st three stages could be game changers.
These might actually be entertaining for the entire stage, not just the the mass sprint and may actually open up some time gaps. What do you guys think?

Also agree with the analysis. Gaps will easily open and it is going to be the attentive GT riders who really benefit, particularly those with classic specalists on the team. Those without are really going to have to chase and they could be quite decisive stages.

The weather, could also through another spanner in the works, and those not prepared (or coming off the Giro and not fully recovered from it and illnesses), will loose time!

 

[180mmCrank]

Anybody mind if I merge this with another thread sort of on the same topic...

Oh well I did it anyway

 

[Ferminal]

I think they are interesting stages but the gaps which open up on the GC will be minimal. I would love to see a selection of GC guys on the Spa or Cobbles stages. Time differences will come from guys falling out the back, not someone (a GC man) trying to shoot off the front.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think they are interesting stages but the gaps which open up on the GC will be minimal. I would love to see a selection of GC guys on the Spa or Cobbles stages. Time differences will come from guys falling out the back, not someone (a GC man) trying to shoot off the front.

Only gc guys who are going bad will lose time on Spa stage. Vino will win that one. If they race hard enough a small group of 30 to 40 riders could come to the finish and battle it out.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Col de la Croix-Neuve aka Montée Laurent Jalabert: 3,1km @ 10,1%.

Just a pity its the Tour and they have to finish at the aerodrome, not the top of the climb.
Otherwise, we would see similar gaps to those at Avoriaz.
One of my personal favourites.
Best ever finish was in 2004 Midi Libre, (Languedoc-Rousillion)
when Christophe Moreau pipped Ekimov on the line, coming from miles back.

A real toil, that day.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Just a pity its the Tour and they have to finish at the aerodrome, not the top of the climb.
Otherwise, we would see similar gaps to those at Avoriaz.
One of my personal favourites.
Best ever finish was in 2004 Midi Libre, (Languedoc-Rousillion)
when Christophe Moreau pipped Ekimov on the line, coming from miles back.

A real toil, that day.

Is it the same finish line as 2005? I am confused at where it finished because I thought there was a downhill bit from the climb to the finish in 05?

 

[Ferminal]

Just a pity its the Tour and they have to finish at the aerodrome, not the top of the climb.
Otherwise, we would see similar gaps to those at Avoriaz.
One of my personal favourites.
Best ever finish was in 2004 Midi Libre, (Languedoc-Rousillion)
when Christophe Moreau pipped Ekimov on the line, coming from miles back.

A real toil, that day.

The 3km flat to the finish makes it tough for someone to get away doesn't it? If that was there in P-N, we would've had a small group at the finish. So instead of Contador attacking to gain 10-20s we will have Contador marking moves by inferior attackers.

 

[Tom T.]

I think Radio Shack is counting on stages 1 thru 3, especially 3, being decisive. They know it's Lance's only chance if they can get AC to do a "Mayo" on the cobble and lose minutes. I look for them and Saxo to do serious damage on these stages, especially if there are crosswinds, which should make them great to watch. But Astana isn't Euskatel, Vino and Noval will have AC near the front and out of trouble. Should be great racing because some GC man will get caught out for sure.

Stages 14 and 17 will be the other game changers.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

I think Radio Shack is counting on stages 1 thru 3, especially 3, being decisive. They know it's Lance's only chance if they can get AC to do a "Mayo" on the cobble and lose minutes. I look for them and Saxo to do serious damage on these stages, especially if there are crosswinds, which should make them great to watch. But Astana isn't Euskatel, Vino and Noval will have AC near the front and out of trouble. Should be great racing because some GC man will get caught out for sure.

Stages 14 and 17 will be the other game changers.

I will be watching stage 3 very keenly.

 

[Climbing]

I'll bet on 14,17,19.
I doubt stage 1-3 will be decisive; indeed some GC could lose some time and Menchov will fall 7 times on the cobbles for sure.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

stage 14.
but i will say it again, this route sucks. Therefore the itt will be most decisive imo.

 

[theyoungest]

stage 14.
but i will say it again, this route sucks. Therefore the itt will be most decisive imo.

Meh, taken stage by stage, it actually promises to be far more entertaining than last year. Which, I admit, isn't very hard. But stage 14 will have the biggest time gaps, I agree.

 

[Sophistic]

In that order:17-ITT-14 but the climb to Avoriaz could produce bigger gaps than many predict, from Km 4 to Km 9 the incline averages 7,5% - hard enough for an attack - and then about 6,5% till 600m before the finish - still hard enough to keep a group away. It would be foolish for a pure climber like Gesink to not attack on this climb, considering there are only 3 mountain top finishes.
Stage 12 would obviously be much more interesting, as someone already posted, if the stage would finish on the top but nevertheless i think that the group of favourites will fall apart early and we will see small gaps at the finish.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Schleck said the final tt won't be very descisive at all. I disagree as if Conti falters on the cobbles or any of the other contenders who could be in the lead falter on the tourmalet but are still within distance of another it could come down to the tt. Schleck should not be so dissmissive of the route.

Who would listen to people who pose like this?

WTF?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Anyhow, getting back on topic.

A very good piece in the Podium Cafe, today.
Their rating of all the climbs, plus some detailed % profiles.
http://www.podiumcafe.com/2010/6/29/1543466/tour-de-france-lets-rank-the-climbs#storyjump

May help some folks to decide.

the climb to Avoriaz could produce bigger gaps than many predict,

Morzine Avoriaz < Monte Termanillo and MT was considered too easy to cause a split.........as it proved, once again.
Of course, this is the Tour.........

 

[auscyclefan94]

Anyhow, getting back on topic.

A very good piece in the Podium Cafe, today.
Their rating of all the climbs, plus some detailed % profiles.
http://www.podiumcafe.com/2010/6/29/1543466/tour-de-france-lets-rank-the-climbs#storyjump

May help some folks to decide.



Morzine Avoriaz < Monte Termanillo and MT was considered too easy to cause a split.........as it proved, once again.
Of course, this is the Tour.........

They did not go too hard up the terminillo and nobdoy of the big guns attacked as people were ******ed after Montalcino stage. Terminillo is a bloody tough climb.

 

[cyclingmad]

stage 14.
but i will say it again, this route sucks. Therefore the itt will be most decisive imo.

Cant agree with you there and believe this race will be exciting. There was nothing wrong with the route last year or this year. The race was dull on a lot of stages last year because of Astanas strength and tactics. Aside from Saxo bank no team could do anything about it.

This year there is more balance Rabo, Radioshack, Saxo, Astana and Liguigas all have strong enough teams and individual riders to create a more exciting race. Other teams have riders that can take advantage of the lack of a dominant team. 2003 was a good tour because the LA train couldn't burn everyone off before the mountains so everyone could attack him and on many stages the attacks came. Lets hope this year all the favourites take their chances

 

[auscyclefan94]

last years route sucked but this year even with a tdf field will bring some excitement. Teams will have plans to dismantle Conti as they would be idiots to have the same approach as last year. It won't be as easy for him this year.

I find it a bit odd that saying contenders who have good cobble teams will be vital to this race as if your leader can't ride on the cobbles your team mates can't ride it for you. Even if you have Cancellara, Boonen, Hincapie, etc. on your team the leaders need to be able to ride the cobbles.

 

[flyor64]

Not sure how decisive it will be to the overall, but I think any one of the first few stages, especially 3, could flip the race upside down for a bit and make the rest of the race much more exciting and not so formulaic...

If there are winds, and/or rain, and/or any significant crashes (increased probability with wind and/or rain), I think stage 3 could mix it up greatly ala some of the Giro early stages...

OR it could be controlled, safe, and relatively boring...meaning nothing to the overall race.

I hope for the first option (with no serious injuries of course)

 

[Mellow Velo]

They did not go too hard up the terminillo and nobdoy of the big guns attacked as people were ******ed after Montalcino stage. Terminillo is a bloody tough climb.

Morzine-Av is this year's Arcalis stage. Those expecting big fireworks will be disappointed.
Sure, any weakling Contenders will get exposed, but, other than that, expect the tempo trains to be running until the final couple of kms.
The Col de Ramaz is actually a fair bit harder.

Oh and the Terminillo never produces a major sort out. That's why it always figures in stage 7 or 8, same as Morzine Av in the Tour.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Morzine-Av is this year's Arcalis stage. Those expecting big fireworks will be disappointed.
Sure, any weakling Contenders will get exposed, but, other than that, expect the tempo trains to be running until the final couple of kms.
The Col de Ramaz is actually a fair bit harder.

Oh and the Terminillo never produces a major sort out. That's why it always figures in stage 7 or 8, same as Morzine Av in the Tour.

If it was in the tour it would be the main finish. It is not that different in difficulty in comparison to the tourmalet as it is 7.3% and 16km long. I guess that proves that the giro has tougher climbs or puts in tougher climbs.

 

[Dedelou]

I wonder if we can see a repeat of what happened in the giro when the top contenders were so confident of the their chances to win they allowed their weaker competitors a good 10 minutes advantage so they could show the public how much stronger they were at the end. So let us imagine that Contador and Vino, basso , evan and the Sleckters bros handicap themselves by 5 minutes behind the Amstrong, Wigging, Sastre types (After all it is the tour and not the giro) in the early stages and them thrill us with fireworks as they regain the time day by day. if that scenario takes place it would be on the last day of the first week .

 

[Climbing]

I wonder if we can see a repeat of what happened in the giro when the top contenders were so confident of the their chances to win they allowed their weaker competitors a good 10 minutes advantage so they could show the public how much stronger they were at the end. So let us imagine that Contador and Vino, basso , evan and the Sleckters bros handicap themselves by 5 minutes behind the Amstrong, Wigging, Sastre types (After all it is the tour and not the giro) in the early stages and them thrill us with fireworks as they regain the time day by day. if that scenario takes place it would be on the last day of the first week .

I highly doubt that.
And btw Basso almost lost the Giro for their (Liquigas firstly) grave mistake.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yup, if Arroyo had had a bit more help he could have joined the Basso trio on the Aprica. He already made minutes on the (mindblowing) descent. One of the best moments of the year, and such a shame for him. One of cycling's nice guys.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yup, if Arroyo had had a bit more help he could have joined the Basso trio on the Aprica. He already made minutes on the (mindblowing) descent. One of the best moments of the year, and such a shame for him. One of cycling's nice guys.

Being spanish and being on valverde's team I find that hard to believe!