What will be the decisive stage(s) of the Tour?

[Climbing]

The story of the Giro tells us that if you lost time on Mortirolo, you will lose more on Aprica, because you're overcoocked by both the ascent and descent (where you push to recover).
In the end he would have probably lost the jersey anyway, with the Gavia coming next day.
Anyway my point was that you better don't give gifts of 13 minutes to anyone, especially GC contenders.

 

[Gregory]

The story of the Giro tells us that if you lost time on Mortirolo, you will lose more on Aprica, because you're overcoocked by both the ascent and descent (where you push to recover).
In the end he would have probably lost the jersey anyway, with the Gavia coming next day.
Anyway my point was that you better don't give gifts of 13 minutes to anyone, especially GC contenders.

Arroyo lost more time not because he was overcooked, but because he had to ride by himself to Aprica (the riders with him weren't collaborating), while the 3 leaders were working together perfectly. On such a false flat and small climb, as to Aprica, a harmoniously working group has a great advantage over an individual rider. That's why you seldom see an individual rider attack Mortirolo by himself. Besides you cannot really overcook on such steep descent as from Mortirolo: it's the question of technique and risk, but not effort. In fact, you can have problems on the final climb from doing nothing on the descent - di Luca suffered from this in 2005.

 

[The Hitch]

Anyhow, getting back on topic.

A very good piece in the Podium Cafe, today.
Their rating of all the climbs, plus some detailed % profiles.
http://www.podiumcafe.com/2010/6/29/1543466/tour-de-france-lets-rank-the-climbs#storyjump

Great piece.

I knew alpe de huez was no ventoux but i didnt know that the madeline and tourmalet were harder.

You wouldnt know the difficulty rating (under their terms) for some of the giro mountains, just to compare how much more difficult the zoncolan and montirillo are to the french climbs.

 

[Climbing]

Arroyo lost more time not because he was overcooked, but because he had to ride by himself to Aprica (the riders with him weren't collaborating), while the 3 leaders were working together perfectly. On such a false flat and small climb, as to Aprica, a harmoniously working group has a great advantage over an individual rider. That's why you seldom see an individual rider attack Mortirolo by himself. Besides you cannot really overcook on such steep descent as from Mortirolo: it's the question of technique and risk, but not effort. In fact, you can have problems on the final climb from doing nothing on the descent - di Luca suffered from this in 2005.

Evans, Vino and the others didn't have interest in recovering Basso, Scarponi and Nibali? Why they didn't help to try to recover? Were they not interested in general classification?
It's simple... no more gas, while Nibali, Scarponi and especially Basso still had energies to push.
By the way I was very surprised by Arroyo lucidity and courage, and he obtained a well deserved podium in the end, wich is a fantastic result for him I think.

 

[180mmCrank]

It's fun to debate hisorical tactics of past Giro but this thread is about the Tour 2010 - can we saty on topic - Would love to hear your views about the decisive stages and what tactics will work here...

 

[Road Hazard]

I'll pick the overly obvious: 17 Tourmalet and 19 the 50km TT.

Sure the cobbles on 3 could cause an upset, but just because there are no cobbles the the alpine decents doesn't mean there is no possibility of crashes there.

Stages 14 and 15 will certainly make the GC picture more clear but again, the uncertainty of racing means that those stages can't be called decisive, there's just too many days left with chances for crashes, breakaways, injuries, mechanicals etc.

And sure the riders with certain strengths and weakness are going to predict that their strengths will win (Andy says TT won't make big diff, he wishes!), and in the Velonews Tour guide Jens Voigt says that some of the flat stages could lead to GC changing breakaways (he wishes!). Predictably, Alberto predicts the Pyrenees will be decisive!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans, Vino and the others didn't have interest in recovering Basso, Scarponi and Nibali? Why they didn't help to try to recover? Were they not interested in general classification?
It's simple... no more gas, while Nibali, Scarponi and especially Basso still had energies to push.
By the way I was very surprised by Arroyo lucidity and courage, and he obtained a well deserved podium in the end, wich is a fantastic result for him I think.

"It will be interesting to see how they go. evans seems unsure of how he will go. here are some comments from his past two, post giro diary entries.

It's interesting, after a solid Giro, it takes a while to get going again, but things have come together on the training side of things. I'm looking forward to see how the alternative build up goes, and of course a whole new group around to enjoy the race with. A few more days, and we'll see how good the preparation really was."

"I came out of it a little more fatigued than normal. Not to worry, a few days holiday with the family, and bike of course. And I seemed to have recovered enough to get back into Tour de France prep. Yes, I have been doing my homework for next months' 'lap of France'. Checking out a few of the Tour's more unpredictable stages with our in house French Director, Jacques Michaud."

 

[richwagmn]

Not sure how decisive it will be to the overall, but I think any one of the first few stages, especially 3, could flip the race upside down for a bit and make the rest of the race much more exciting and not so formulaic...

If there are winds, and/or rain, and/or any significant crashes (increased probability with wind and/or rain), I think stage 3 could mix it up greatly ala some of the Giro early stages...

OR it could be controlled, safe, and relatively boring...meaning nothing to the overall race.

I hope for the first option (with no serious injuries of course)

I agree with this. Those first 3 stages could be brutal. I have mixed feelings about them being included at all (well mostly stage 3).

It would be a shame to lose a GT rider early on.

 

[rghysens]

Great piece.

I knew alpe de huez was no ventoux but i didnt know that the madeline and tourmalet were harder.

You wouldnt know the difficulty rating (under their terms) for some of the giro mountains, just to compare how much more difficult the zoncolan and montirillo are to the french climbs.

calculated it for you:

mortirolo: 185
zoncolan: 197

 

[The Hitch]

calculated it for you:

mortirolo: 185
zoncolan: 197

good god

Thanks for that.

Shows how much harder the giro is.

Id be willing to take a guess that from this years giro a few other mountains- kronplatz, monte grappa and teminillo would be up there as well.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Is there any video in the internet from the 2004 TdF 3.stage to Wasquehal ?

thanks for a link.

 

[rghysens]

Id be willing to take a guess that from this years giro a few other mountains- kronplatz, monte grappa and teminillo would be up there as well.

since you asked for it:

monte terminilio: 120
monte grappa: 158
kronplatz: 138

 

[sagard]

The time trials. Contador will gain time on Schleck and everyone. The climbs will simply be Contador matching all attacks and then pulling away for small time gains vs. whoever managed to stay with the lead group.

 

[The Hitch]

since you asked for it:

monte terminilio: 120
monte grappa: 158
kronplatz: 138

thanks again. Though then again if alp de huez is harder (by not much i know), how comes it took Armstrong 39.41 minutes, and others 1-2 minutes back to do a 15.5km alp de huez stage in 2004, yet on a shorter- 12.8 km stage on the kronplatz in 2008 it took pellizotti 40.26 minutes, with others 0-2 minutes back, and in 2010 the 12.8 kronplatz climb took everyone 1 and a half minutes longer.

so a shorter stage on the kronplatz seems to take longer. Shouldnt that mean that the kronplatz is harder?

 

[Barrus]

thanks again. Though then again if alp de huez is harder (by not much i know), how comes it took Armstrong 39.41 minutes, and others 1-2 minutes back to do a 15.5km alp de huez stage in 2004, yet on a shorter- 12.8 km stage on the kronplatz in 2008 it took pellizotti 40.26 minutes, with others 0-2 minutes back, and in 2010 the 12.8 kronplatz climb took everyone 1 and a half minutes longer.

so a shorter stage on the kronplatz seems to take longer. Shouldnt that mean that the kronplatz is harder?

there's also another possibility that would be more at home in the clinic

 

[The Hitch]

there's also another possibility that would be more at home in the clinic

I dont think that would explain the huge difference in time.

And Franco Pellizotii doesnt belong in the clinic? what about ricardo ricco who finished a few seconds back from Pellizotti there.

 

[Winterfold]

I dont see how the Kronplatz is 'easier' than the Alpe. It is clearly a harder climb - and before you factor in the surface - I guess we are pushing the limit of that algorithim in that case.

 

[richwagmn]

Possible that stage 3 might just be a dud?

Seeing how you could lose the tour on this day, I'm wondering if the GT teams (sans RadioShack) might be just stay at the front and shut this stage down. RS (as least according to LA) seems like the only GC team aiming for this stage given the damage likely to occur to LA in the ITT and Pyrenees.

 

[Thee_chisa]

doubt it, all the good riders on cobbles are going to drive this. a single team won't be able to control the peloton

 

[metaCYCLE]

like i said before there most likely will be crashes, abandons etc. but i don't see anything notable happening GC-wise.

 

[peacefultribe]

I think that the stage will be very exciting, and we may see some surprises. The GC contenders will be very cautious, and the pave specialists will take more risks. Because of that, we may see riders that we least expect to have troubles, make mistakes.

I think that RS will try to cause problems, and not just by riding well.

I see the Schlecks as having troubles. Maybe it's because it seems to be the trend for them this season. More Andy than Frank.

Contador may be ok. It will depend on if Vino can keep him out of trouble. Vino is like a cat. Even though he didn't podium at the Giro, he certainly knew how to stay out of harms way.

 

[Thee_chisa]

can't see RS doing much, if anything it will be saxo and sky with their classics guys pushing it with thor trying to keep up the front (i can't see him staying to help sastre when he has the potential to win a stage)

 

[guncha]

This year's TDF offers a very good GT route, it is better than the route of Giro - there is no doubt Giro had harder climbs but it didn't provide any balance between ITT and mountains. Only 23 km of flat ITT is not enough when there are three GC stages with 8,5%+ climbs plus other GC stages. For instance, Evans managed get time on Basso in uphill ITT - it would have been interesting to see 50km flat ITT where he could have got 2 or 3 minutes on everyone. Moreover, in TTT strong time trialists with weak team lost time as well.

In this year's tour there are a lot of stages with potential GC shakeups (unlike the route of TDF 2009) in the first two weeks. For instance, classics stages and an uphill finish at Rousses in the first week (however, those won't be decisive). Then the first high mountain finish which is not very difficult. Finish after Madelaine and Mende could also bring something.

By the time they reach Pyrenees a lot of rides should be in contention. However, Pailhères and Domaines stage might be decisive because riders will already be very tired and Pailhères will make the matters worse and someone like Contador might drop everyone at Domaines. If it is not enough with Domaines then Tourmalet and ITT will decide everything.

 

[Ferminal]

This year's TDF offers a very good GT route, it is better than the route of Giro - there is no doubt Giro had harder climbs but it didn't provide any balance between ITT and mountains. Only 23 km of flat ITT is not enough when there are three GC stages with 8,5%+ climbs plus other GC stages. For instance, Evans managed get time on Basso in uphill ITT - it would have been interesting to see 50km flat ITT where he could have got 2 or 3 minutes on everyone. Moreover, in TTT strong time trialists with weak team lost time as well.

In this year's tour there are a lot of stages with potential GC shakeups (unlike the route of TDF 2009) in the first two weeks. For instance, classics stages and an uphill finish at Rousses in the first week (however, those won't be decisive). Then the first high mountain finish which is not very difficult. Finish after Madelaine and Mende could also bring something.

By the time they reach Pyrenees a lot of rides should be in contention. However, Pailhères and Domaines stage might be decisive because riders will already be very tired and Pailhères will make the matters worse and someone like Contador might drop everyone at Domaines. If it is not enough with Domaines then Tourmalet and ITT will decide everything.

On the other hand, the Giro paid a massive favour to the "non-climbers" with the Montalcino stage - Evans and Vino both took 2minutes which is more than they would've got in a 40km ITT.

 

[benpounder]

What will be the decisive stage(s) of the Tour?

Stage 3. The cobbles will wipe out a number of pretenders, will promote a number of dark horses, and will show just which team really can support its leader.

I suspect Astana, SaxoBank, Radio Shack, Cervelo and HTC will finish the day well. Yeah, so will QuickStep, but what chance do they have in the GC?