Henao is older so might be a safer bet for a gt, especially since he already has a top 10.
As for Henao being forced to work, he wont do **** before the mountains and since mountains is mostly mtf, it will be straight shootout anyhow. So what if eventually when theres only 15 riders left he has to ride in front of Froome and uran, probs wont be no pace setting anyhow.
Also i do think looking at burgos is a very good indicator. Last 3 years winner has been on podium. And other guys on the podium have also overperformed.