Mongol_Waaijer said:It's fairly simple really.
Contador has Lance over a barrel.
If Lance "attacks" he won't make any ground, and Sastre, Evans. Schleck and whoever else is up there in the lead group will follow easily. Once they catch him (probably almost immediately) Contador will counter, gain time, and it will be seen as a smart and conventional tactic.
If Contador attacks first (or counters a move by a non Astana GC rider) and gets some immediate ground Evans, Sastre, Schleck etc might hesitate and look to each other. Contador could quickly open up some distance.
Lance will be in trouble because there's only one thing worse than chasing down a teammate and that's trying to chase down a teammate and failing.
Imagine the media reports if that happens! He is then forced to choose between losing the tour and being able to claim he is a team player, or losing the tour and looking like an ar*e.
The funny thing is Baby Schleck is tipping Lance to win right now. He said that Contador isn't unbeatable because he only got 20 seconds at Arcalis. My guess is that Riis is trying to exploit the Astana rift as much as possible.
Contador has to play his cards wisely. As he said, his legs cannot fail him once.