Where do ASO go from here? Tour route 2018

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

21 x Paris-Roubaix.

11 x Paris-Roubaix + 10 x Lombardy course from the last couple of years.

In all seriousness, I have never understood why we don't have 3/4 Paris-Roubaix type stages in the Tour.
It doesn't have to be quite as hard as Roubaix - even if it is just like 2014 (but longer) or 2015 (but harder) or that one stage where Frank Schleck crashed out in 2010.
I want to see 3/4 of them in the Tour, with one of them being 250km.

I do understand that some would contend it is too difficult for the riders, but isn't that the point of the Tour - to test the best riders of the world to the best of ALL their abilities?
(That's why I am so pro having relatively 80km+ of TT at least in every Tour - the Tour is not supposed to be won by Chiappucci's or even Quintana's [unless he does his every-once-in-a-while brilliant TT]. The Tour should test all aspects of the best riders in the world)

Having 3/4 cobbled stages can only be done riding over the same cobbled sectors for 3/4 days. They can just swap their order and their location relative to the finish. Like the Flanders classics

On the other hand, testing the best riders to the best of their abilities would surely leave the race with the winner known at the first rest day, and that is bad business for ASO. That is unless cobble stages are after all the TTs and mountains... and nobody waits if the leader suffers a misfortune.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Looks pretty decent. Going into Bretagne I assume means we get a decent hilly stage (or even unpaved roads from Tro-Bro Léon like in the previous rumour?). A long flat ITT and a hilly ITT is decent. It depends on how hard they make it, but unless it's up and down on a decent gradient all the time, Dumoulin can probably still win a bit on Froome in the hilly TT. Also, as stated, the ITT to Bordeaux should be 50km or something. With two TTs, one of them being pan flat and 50km, Dumoulin really can't complain.

A stage in the Massif Central and hopefully a good Jura stage to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine is nice as well. Also, the stage to Agde I assume will be built for echelons (look at the map, and you'll know what I mean).

Really, if it has a good stage in Bretagne, good Jura stage, a good echelon stage enough TT kms and a it looks like enough mountains to balance it out. Looks pretty good compared to the stuff we normally get.

Dumoulin can actually win more in a hilly TT than in a flat one. As proven time and time again.

 

[Svam]

Re: Re:

Thanks!

Now that Bordeaux has withdrawn, where do you think the (hopefully) long, flat and final ITT will be?

Well, I don't even know if there will be one final ITT

I remember an interview of Prudhomme in 2014-2015 and it was clear that for ASO the equilibrium of the route has to change every year. In 2017, rouleurs had the "last serve" in Marseille, so by this logic I'm expecting a last GC stage for climbers in 2018... And I don't even know if this stage will be in the Pyrennees, in the Alps or in an intermediary mountain range. A french weekly (VSD) has recently published an article about the next year route based on "rumors in the caravane" and it points Alps then Pyrenees with 3-4 stages there including one in Spain (but no clue about where)...

 

[Finn84]

The route Vayer tweeted suggests no mountaintop finishes in Pyrenees?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

The route Vayer tweeted suggests no mountaintop finishes in Pyrenees?

It suggests a mtf in Superbagneres which is a HC climb. But someone said that route is bs anyway, so that doesn't really matter.

 

[Singer01]

How about a cobbled TT? i'm not a big fan of cobbled stages in stage races normally because of the lottery factor, but if it was a TT then a flat tyre only costs you the time it takes to change a wheel, rather than potentially minutes if you get dropped from the lead group. I'd also like to see an ascent/decent (or vice versa) TT where poor descenders can't just follow wheels, and there again is limited risk of someone else taking you out.

Other than that i want a balanced route that rewards the best overall rider, not a particular rider that i like. No GC should be won with less than 60km of flatish TT, or fewer than 5 proper mountain stages.

 

[Durden93]

What I would like to see as far as TT goes is:
30km flat TT before the first mountain days, and then a 30km TT which incorporates a second categorized climb, similiar to one of the 2012 time trials. Froome will get an advantage on that TT+ the TTT earlier in the week. The other favourites will have to attack and combine forces.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

The other favourites will have to attack and combine forces.

Just like this year.

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

The other favourites will have to attack and combine forces.

Just like this year.

Froome's gap wasn't big this year. If Bardet was down 3 minutes he would've attacked before the Izoard.

 

[staubsauger]

That rumored route literally means Bardet rides the Giro. I don't buy it.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

How about a cobbled TT? i'm not a big fan of cobbled stages in stage races normally because of the lottery factor, but if it was a TT then a flat tyre only costs you the time it takes to change a wheel, rather than potentially minutes if you get dropped from the lead group. I'd also like to see an ascent/decent (or vice versa) TT where poor descenders can't just follow wheels, and there again is limited risk of someone else taking you out.

Other than that i want a balanced route that rewards the best overall rider, not a particular rider that i like. No GC should be won with less than 60km of flatish TT, or fewer than 5 proper mountain stages.

There will always be a lottery factor in a 3-week stage race. Sometimes the lottery eliminates a contender, sometimes it solidifies a champion's lead.

There was an uphill/downhill itt in 2013, stage 17 32km from Embrun to Chorges over 2 2nd cat climbs. Froome beat Contador by 9 seconds for the stage win and extended his GC lead to 4:34. JC Peraud crashed in the wet on a late corner and had to abandon the race while sitting in 9th overall.

There was a lump TT last year too, I think Dumoulin held off Froome for the stage win.

I'd like to see a TT with cobbles. The equipment choices would be interesting to say the least. Of course, it would depend how many kms of cobbles there would be.

 

[Ruby United]

Looks pretty decent. Going into Bretagne I assume means we get a decent hilly stage (or even unpaved roads from Tro-Bro Léon like in the previous rumour?). A long flat ITT and a hilly ITT is decent. It depends on how hard they make it, but unless it's up and down on a decent gradient all the time, Dumoulin can probably still win a bit on Froome in the hilly TT. Also, as stated, the ITT to Bordeaux should be 50km or something. With two TTs, one of them being pan flat and 50km, Dumoulin really can't complain.

A stage in the Massif Central and hopefully a good Jura stage to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine is nice as well. Also, the stage to Agde I assume will be built for echelons (look at the map, and you'll know what I mean).

Really, if it has a good stage in Bretagne, good Jura stage, a good echelon stage enough TT kms and a it looks like enough mountains to balance it out. Looks pretty good compared to the stuff we normally get.

Dumoulin can actually win more in a hilly TT than in a flat one. As proven time and time again.

The gap between Dumoulin and other competitors in a hilly TT is as big as in a flat tt.
But the gap between Dumoulin and Froome in a hilly TT is smaller than a flat TT.
In fact, Froome is arguably better in a hilly TT.
So overall, a hilly TT is worse for Dumo as Froome is obviously the man to beat.

 

[Gigs_98]

Looks pretty decent. Going into Bretagne I assume means we get a decent hilly stage (or even unpaved roads from Tro-Bro Léon like in the previous rumour?). A long flat ITT and a hilly ITT is decent. It depends on how hard they make it, but unless it's up and down on a decent gradient all the time, Dumoulin can probably still win a bit on Froome in the hilly TT. Also, as stated, the ITT to Bordeaux should be 50km or something. With two TTs, one of them being pan flat and 50km, Dumoulin really can't complain.

A stage in the Massif Central and hopefully a good Jura stage to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine is nice as well. Also, the stage to Agde I assume will be built for echelons (look at the map, and you'll know what I mean).

Really, if it has a good stage in Bretagne, good Jura stage, a good echelon stage enough TT kms and a it looks like enough mountains to balance it out. Looks pretty good compared to the stuff we normally get.

Dumoulin can actually win more in a hilly TT than in a flat one. As proven time and time again.

The gap between Dumoulin and other competitors in a hilly TT is as big as in a flat tt.
But the gap between Dumoulin and Froome in a hilly TT is smaller than a flat TT.
In fact, Froome is arguably better in a hilly TT.
So overall, a hilly TT is worse for Dumo as Froome is obviously the man to beat.

Better than Dumoulin? Definitely not. The TT in last years tour was pretty hilly and Dumoulin was one class above Froome. I think if both show up in top shape Froome can only win a mountain time trial and maybe something like the 2nd TT in 2013.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

That rumored route literally means Bardet rides the Giro. I don't buy it.

i agree. After consecutive podiums he swaps to the Giro ? But he really has to address his TT issues.

 

[Brullnux]

Looks pretty decent. Going into Bretagne I assume means we get a decent hilly stage (or even unpaved roads from Tro-Bro Léon like in the previous rumour?). A long flat ITT and a hilly ITT is decent. It depends on how hard they make it, but unless it's up and down on a decent gradient all the time, Dumoulin can probably still win a bit on Froome in the hilly TT. Also, as stated, the ITT to Bordeaux should be 50km or something. With two TTs, one of them being pan flat and 50km, Dumoulin really can't complain.

A stage in the Massif Central and hopefully a good Jura stage to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine is nice as well. Also, the stage to Agde I assume will be built for echelons (look at the map, and you'll know what I mean).

Really, if it has a good stage in Bretagne, good Jura stage, a good echelon stage enough TT kms and a it looks like enough mountains to balance it out. Looks pretty good compared to the stuff we normally get.

Dumoulin can actually win more in a hilly TT than in a flat one. As proven time and time again.

The gap between Dumoulin and other competitors in a hilly TT is as big as in a flat tt.
But the gap between Dumoulin and Froome in a hilly TT is smaller than a flat TT.
In fact, Froome is arguably better in a hilly TT.
So overall, a hilly TT is worse for Dumo as Froome is obviously the man to beat.

I agree with the first bit, but saying Froome > Dumoulin in a hilly TT is insanity.

 

[dacooley]

Froome and Dimoulin compete in a hilly long TT once in 2-3 years and there's no guarantee they will clash in this discipline in the future, so no special need to make big conclusions. 1 minute difference in the 2016 Tour seems quite fair, though, Froome might've minimized the margin a big better providing Tom had ridden for GC as well.

 

[Ruby United]

Looks pretty decent. Going into Bretagne I assume means we get a decent hilly stage (or even unpaved roads from Tro-Bro Léon like in the previous rumour?). A long flat ITT and a hilly ITT is decent. It depends on how hard they make it, but unless it's up and down on a decent gradient all the time, Dumoulin can probably still win a bit on Froome in the hilly TT. Also, as stated, the ITT to Bordeaux should be 50km or something. With two TTs, one of them being pan flat and 50km, Dumoulin really can't complain.

A stage in the Massif Central and hopefully a good Jura stage to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine is nice as well. Also, the stage to Agde I assume will be built for echelons (look at the map, and you'll know what I mean).

Really, if it has a good stage in Bretagne, good Jura stage, a good echelon stage enough TT kms and a it looks like enough mountains to balance it out. Looks pretty good compared to the stuff we normally get.

Dumoulin can actually win more in a hilly TT than in a flat one. As proven time and time again.

The gap between Dumoulin and other competitors in a hilly TT is as big as in a flat tt.
But the gap between Dumoulin and Froome in a hilly TT is smaller than a flat TT.
In fact, Froome is arguably better in a hilly TT.
So overall, a hilly TT is worse for Dumo as Froome is obviously the man to beat.

I agree with the first bit, but saying Froome > Dumoulin in a hilly TT is insanity.

I based it on the fact that in the 2016 Tour, Dumo won the 'hilly' TT. But the hilly TT really wasn't particularly hilly. Km's 7-33 were basically completely flat. I would call it 'lumpy' rather than hilly. The general flatness of the main part of the course in my opinion played into Dumo's hands (in comparison to Froome).
Having said that, I admit there isn't much precedent so we are relying on speculation here.
But it seems obvious to me that the hillier the course, the better for Froome in relation to Dumo.
(I would agree though, having considered it, that there is not much reason to suppose Froome is better in a hilly TT than Dumo, so I retract that statement. However, my primary point, that the hillier the TT the worse for Dumo in comparison to Froome, still stands)

 

[Finn84]

If I looked the roads correctly, here would be 16-kilometre TT partly on cobbles used in Paris-Roubaix. From Valenciennes to Maing. Should include sectors 21, 20 and 19 from 2013 P-R. (didn't want to check others but that came up when I googled Paris-Roubaix map)

 

[Axel Hangleck]

I've always wondered about a ITT with cobbles included; it would never happen, but it would be interesting. After all, aren't we wanting to see the best 'all round' rider winning? Not the best TT-er or best climber, but the best multi skilled rider?
I thought Nibali's ride on the cobbles in 2014 was pretty impressive.
Saying that, I do think the routes tend to be a little formulaic; why not have a few 'classics type' stages in the final week as opposed to the first week.

 

[OlavEH]

It's difficult to create an interesting route if the top GC contenders are as unwilling to attack as they were in this year's edition. The race really needs riders like Quintana and Aru in peak shape. But they could certainly create a much, much better route than this year:

- For God's sake, reduce the number of flat stages.
- A Tro Bro Leon like stage would be great.
- More medium mountain stages, 200+ kms would also be great. There are possibilities in Massif Central.
- And of course: TOUGHER hight mountain stages, typically 4000+ height meters and 200+ kms.

Like the rumours regarding Mur de Bretagne, Col de Beal and especially Superbagneres. But it wouldn't suprise me the least if a Superbagneres stage would be a short mountain stage, like 120-140 km, with only 2-3 categorized climbs. If they should use that climb, they shoud rather do something like this:

 

[Ruby United]

Re:

It's difficult to create an interesting route if the top GC contenders are as unwilling to attack as they were in this year's edition. The race really needs riders like Quintana and Aru in peak shape. But they could certainly create a much, much better route than this year:

- For God's sake, reduce the number of flat stages.
- A Tro Bro Leon like stage would be great.
- More medium mountain stages, 200+ kms would also be great. There are possibilities in Massif Central.
- And of course: TOUGHER hight mountain stages, typically 4000+ height meters and 200+ kms.

Like the rumours regarding Mur de Bretagne, Col de Beal and especially Superbagneres. But it wouldn't suprise me the least if a Superbagneres stage would be a short mountain stage, like 120-140 km, with only 2-3 categorized climbs. If they should use that climb, they shoud rather do something like this:

Your Tour is ridiculously hard.
Not a lot of flat stages, a Tro Bro Leon stage (which, by the way, would destroy the competition as Aru and Nairito would lose 4+ minutes to Froome and Dumo) and fill the route with 200km+ mountain stages that are tougher.

Whilst I agree with some of your points here, the Tour you propose would kill competitive cycling.

 

[OlavEH]

Re: Re:

Your Tour is ridiculously hard.
Not a lot of flat stages, a Tro Bro Leon stage (which, by the way, would destroy the competition as Aru and Nairito would lose 4+ minutes to Froome and Dumo) and fill the route with 200km+ mountain stages that are tougher.

Whilst I agree with some of your points here, the Tour you propose would kill competitive cycling.

Not tougher than several of the Giro versions under Zomegnan's reign. The last Tours have been ridiculously easy and haven't actually promoted competitive cycling. ASO needs to understand that close GC battle isn't equal to entertaining cycling and good stages.

The most important point is regardless tougher and better designed mountain stages. They have been pretty, pretty rare in the last years.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

It's difficult to create an interesting route if the top GC contenders are as unwilling to attack as they were in this year's edition. The race really needs riders like Quintana and Aru in peak shape. But they could certainly create a much, much better route than this year:

- For God's sake, reduce the number of flat stages.
- A Tro Bro Leon like stage would be great.
- More medium mountain stages, 200+ kms would also be great. There are possibilities in Massif Central.
- And of course: TOUGHER hight mountain stages, typically 4000+ height meters and 200+ kms.

Like the rumours regarding Mur de Bretagne, Col de Beal and especially Superbagneres. But it wouldn't suprise me the least if a Superbagneres stage would be a short mountain stage, like 120-140 km, with only 2-3 categorized climbs. If they should use that climb, they shoud rather do something like this:

Your Tour is ridiculously hard.
Not a lot of flat stages, a Tro Bro Leon stage (which, by the way, would destroy the competition as Aru and Nairito would lose 4+ minutes to Froome and Dumo) and fill the route with 200km+ mountain stages that are tougher.

Whilst I agree with some of your points here, the Tour you propose would kill competitive cycling.

We've seen Tours that fit the criteria (minus Tro Bro Leon like stages) several times before...

It's more the case that current routes are ridiculously easy.

 

[Kyllingen86]

Any further news on next years Tour?

I assume this is the closest thing to a thread about Tour de France 2018.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

Any further news on next years Tour?

I assume this is the closest thing to a thread about Tour de France 2018.

Nothing really convincing.
The first three (and a half) stages are known, 4th stage will be flat too, 5th is rumored to include some dirt tracks (not used by Tro Bro Leon), 6th stage either a hilly final to Brest or (more likely) a hilltop finish at Mur-de-Bretagne, than some more flat stages in Northern France for the rest of the week (the idea of going to Col de Béal on the first intermediate sunday seems to be abandonned).
A transfer to the Alps (first Alpine stage is rumored to finish in Aix-les-Bains). There are some rumours about a double finish to Alpe d'Huez: a road stage by Col de Sarennes, like in this years Dauphiné and a mtt like in the 2004 tdf. Next is a crossing of the Massif Central (with a finish in Mende) before 4 Pyrenean stages (2 mtf's) and a tt in the surroundings of Bordeax.