As some have already mentioned, if Menchov stays out of trouble and is in top shape, he can win the TDF. I could even see him contending next year, but this could be a great opportunity. I'd like to see him be more aggressive and attack once in a while. He is similar to Evans in that regard. I also agree that this years route will suit him more than most of the other top riders, so he should capitalize on that, although his Dauphine was anything but impressive. Hopefully he is just sandbagging and racing himself into form. Still, almost three weeks to the start.