Which active rider will win more Grand Tours

[Andy schleck]

The problem with Vingegaard is that he'll be 26 and doesn't seem likely to target the lesser GTs. He's not going to win 7 more TdFs.

For shure he's not going to win 7 TdFs, nobody is gonna do that. But he can win also other grand tours. He will target later another grand tours.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

We have to be careful with the age issue, it's not really that important to be 26 or 24, for me it's more relevant the years of each one at their maximum and the grand tours raced, therefore it would make sense that Vingegaard would have the same years ahead of him at the top as Pogacar or even more, it would also be even possible that he had even more margin and progression than him, since from 2021 to 2022 he has improved much more (althouhg I believe it wil be difficult to improvetheir current level for either of them).
It will be difficult to surpass Froome in any case, for both or for Remco but stadistically at least one of them should be close.
Still no clue for Ayuso, great first GT with the crazy age of 20, but again a logical and lineal progression is not guaranteed in cycling and not every talent could be a multiple GT winner, he seems to have the potential of course but I need to see him at least in his next GT to have a more formed opinion about him.

And lastly about Roglic, he shouldn't be as burnt out as an average 33 year old great cyclist, in fact I have a feeling he will retire with at least one more GT or even two (Why not ehh...) but more seems difficult I afraid

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I did not include any of them as I simply don't believe they will win many GT's. The topic is about many GT wins (7+). Yes, I believe they MAY win some, their top level doesn't seem high enough to dominate. While Rodriguez and (to a lesser extent) Arensman are still progressing and neither of us knows where they will stop.

So you didn't include those because they won't win 7 GTs. But you include Arensman and Rodriguez because they might eventually?

There are dozens of young riders who have shown progression and potential that may one day lead to GT winning abilities. As such, guys like Arensman, Rodriguez might get there, just like dozens of others "might" one day. Same was said of Sivakov, Gaudu, heck plenty of people even thought Sosa could one day win a GT, 4 years ago. We're still waiting to see what riders just a few years older with better results can do, like Vlasov, Almeida, Mas, Carthy... That's why i just think it's a bit random to single out these two. On the other hand, two years ago nobody could have foreseen Vingegaard would develop into a GT winner. The guy winning 7 GT's might not even be on our rader right now.

 

[YavorD]

So you didn't include those because they won't win 7 GTs. But you include Arensman and Rodriguez because they might eventually?

There are dozens of young riders who have shown progression and potential that may one day lead to GT winning abilities. As such, guys like Arensman, Rodriguez might get there, just like dozens of others "might" one day. Same was said of Sivakov, Gaudu, heck plenty of people even thought Sosa could one day win a GT, 4 years ago. We're still waiting to see what riders just a few years older with better results can do, like Vlasov, Almeida, Mas, Carthy... That's why i just think it's a bit random to single out these two. On the other hand, two years ago nobody could have foreseen Vingegaard would develop into a GT winner. The guy winning 7 GT's might not even be on our rader right now.

Fully agree with all of your points. Most likely they won't win many, I'm just saying that these are guys I won't be surprised if they do.

 

[perico]

No, obviously when people say a 22-24 your old could win "this Vuelta/Giro already" they forgot to add "but that's the only GT he'll ever win!" Because obviously, that omission is implied.

Maybe in threads dedicated to Remco/Almeida/QS rivalry, but that’s not all that uncommon for fans of specific riders. Hell at one point you could probably find a 2018 post of mine proclaiming Enric Mas would match Contador in the Mas specific threads.

outside of that circle of specific of fanboys, I don’t remember many proclaiming him a multiple GT winner, but I could’ve missed it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Maybe in threads dedicated to Remco/Almeida/QS rivalry, but that’s not all that uncommon for fans of specific riders. Hell at one point you could probably find a 2018 post of mine proclaiming Enric Mas would match Contador in the Mas specific threads.

outside of that circle of specific of fanboys, I don’t remember many proclaiming him a multiple GT winner, but I could’ve missed it.

I think a distinction needs to be made here. Either you are on the fence whether someone is capable of winning a GT. In this case, he might not, or he might, but you're not sure and don't rule out either possibility. There are plenty of riders who have won only one, and there will be plenty in the future who will be able to win one, when all the stars align. Then there is the possibility of being (near) certain a rider will win a GT. In this case, i can not imagine anybody proclaiming or predicting that is where it will end. Especially when the rider is only 22-24 years old. When you say a 22 year old is going to win a GT next year, i can not imagine anybody doing so without assuming he has the potential to win more afterwards. If not, then you would not be so convinced he would win even once to begin with. Hence while my initial statement may have been a hyperbole, it almost boils down to the same thing as stating a young rider wil/can win one GT all but implies he could win 2 or 3 as well.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

That's how many threads Logic has derailed to make the discussion exclusively about Evenepoel? It's becoming quite annoying...

 

[tobydawq]

That's how many threads Logic has derailed to make the discussion exclusively about Evenepoel? It's becoming quite annoying...

He's talking about Almeida...

 

[houtdffan]

Evenepoel and not even close

When the greats are saying how good he is (better than Hinault according to Guimard, by far the best according to Valverde), that should be a tell tale sign to everyone

 

[tobydawq]

Evenepoel and not even close

When the greats are saying how good he is (better than Hinault according to Guimard, by far the best according to Valverde), that should be a tell tale sign to everyone

"Not even close", yeah sure.

There's just no way for anyone to know that.

 

[Andy schleck]

Evenepoel and not even close

When the greats are saying how good he is (better than Hinault according to Guimard, by far the best according to Valverde), that should be a tell tale sign to everyone

Of course not even close! in a TT of 100 km, Evenepoel can gain 10 min on vingegaard and pogacar right?!

Valverde was drunk, don't count him. You should talk of who is the best in the world for merckx, the best rider in history.

 

[Extinction]

Of course not even close! in a TT of 100 km, Evenepoel can gain 10 min on vingegaard and pogacar right?!

Valverde was drunk, don't count him. You should talk of who is the best in the world for merckx, the best rider in history.

And Merckx, what does he say now?

 

[hrotha]

Evenepoel and not even close

When the greats are saying how good he is (better than Hinault according to Guimard, by far the best according to Valverde), that should be a tell tale sign to everyone

The greats say stuff like that all the time about pretty much anybody

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That's how many threads Logic has derailed to make the discussion exclusively about Evenepoel? It's becoming quite annoying...

Not quite as annoying as people not knowing what they're talking about.

He's talking about Almeida...

About Almeida vs Arensman/Rodriguez more precisely, but hey, it got him 3 likes from equally blind posters, lol

 

[Wyndbrook]

I,m older than most of you, so statistically I have a better chance of living longer, so I will always bet on the guy with most wins so far.
Froome will end his career with most GT wins.

 

[houtdffan]

The greats say stuff like that all the time about pretty much anybody

Guimard has never said anything like that until Remco came along

 

[JosefK]

Evenepoel will likely never win a grand tour. He's just not built for the long climbs and ... oh, wait. This isn't 2021? ... Time to lay off the pipe.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[Bonimenier]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

Legit the least likely of the list to get to at least 7.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Legit the least likely of the list to get to at least 7.

The list is a rather select one. If we exclude Froome. The rest of the list still has some (serious) catching up to do.

 

[Extinction]

The list is a rather select one. If we exclude Froome. The rest of the list still has some (serious) catching up to do.

And a long career to do so. Something drammatic would have to occur to think someone like Pog wouldn't reach 7.

 

[CyclistAbi]

And a long career to do so. Something drammatic would have to occur to think someone like Pog wouldn't reach 7.

My personal opinion is cyclists start too soon these days. Winning big. Hence i don't believe they can maintain such level through lets say 10 or 15 years career. What can happen is a decline and rise during the career. But 10 or 15 years of being on the highest level. I don't see that as being realistic. For 7 GTs and if you do one per year you more or less need to be close to the highest level for lets say a decade.

But for sure Pogi can win 7 GTs in his career. In my opinion so can Rogla. Pogi due to his young age and current success rate. Rogla due to his ability to at minimum be on a podium in 2 GTs per year. Hence a double win per season will likely happen sooner rather then latter.

 

[RedheadDane]

Rogla due to his ability to at minimum be on a podium in 2 GTs per year. Hence a double win per season will likely happen sooner rather then latter.

So, because he podiumed in two GTs in a year twice (2019 and 2020, admittedly; including a win both times) you think it's only a matter of time before he wins two GTs in a year? Right...

 

[CyclistAbi]

So, because he podiumed in two GTs in a year twice (2019 and 2020, admittedly; including a win both times) you think it's only a matter of time before he wins two GTs in a year? Right...

Yes.

P.S. And not just that. Even at Tour 2022. He was the deciding factor on stage 11. All while riding with his back broken. Then in contention again at Vuelta 22. Rogla is a proven two GT per year champion. Not only a participant in one and doing the other one seriously. ATM i am not aware about another cyclist in the pro peloton i could say that about.

 

[Extinction]

My personal opinion is cyclists start too soon these days. Winning big. Hence i don't believe they can maintain such level through lets say 10 or 15 years career. What can happen is a decline and rise during the career. But 10 or 15 years of being on the highest level. I don't see that as being realistic. For 7 GTs and if you do one per year you more or less need to be close to the highest level for lets say a decade.

But for sure Pogi can win 7 GTs in his career. In my opinion so can Rogla. Pogi due to his young age and current success rate. Rogla due to his ability to at minimum be on a podium in 2 GTs per year. Hence a double win per season will likely happen sooner rather then latter.

I think Tadej and Remco are among those rare talents who come along only once in while (like Hinault material or better, actually Guilmard said he thinks Remco is a bigger talent than Bernard), and certainly bigger talents than Froome who won 7.