Who deserves the Vélo d'Or the most so far?

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

I believe that if Sagan was in that group instead of GVA, everyone would race much harder in those big hills, and even the peloton wouldn't have let him go in the first place.

To use a recent example, look at Froome's stage win in Romandie. The peloton let him go. If Sagan wasn't a threat for the green jersey or if he had already sealed it up, he'd be allowed to go just like GVA was. Would Sagan have been able to drop De Gendt like GVA did? I think not

 

[MacBAir]

Re: Re:

I believe that if Sagan was in that group instead of GVA, everyone would race much harder in those big hills, and even the peloton wouldn't have let him go in the first place.

To use a recent example, look at Froome's stage win in Romandie. The peloton let him go. If Sagan wasn't a threat for the green jersey or if he had already sealed it up, he'd be allowed to go just like GVA was. Would Sagan have been able to drop De Gendt like GVA did? I think not

What you think is irrelevant because Sagan has a lot of better climbing performances than GVA on his palmares. But that was also irrelevant to what I was saying.

8KM before the finish line at the olympics not even GVA or anyone in that group was thinking that it was possible to gain a medal. And before that, the peloton with bigger favorites let that group go.

The 3 strongest guys got a nice gap, and the rest is history and GVA won also because Jakob wanted a medal at all costs.

Anyway... That was a great, fantastic win, for everything it meant. A fantastic rider, underdog on that race, getting reward after years of aggressive racing. But it was a underdog win. Those happen all the time on 1 day races.

Being the overwhelming favorite, with all eyes on you, a world champ jersey, and destroying the field on a big, big race that is the season goal of the specialists/strong riders? That's a different kind of win and it's a rarity on modern times, as far as monuments go. Both are beautiful wins, but it's pretty clear how different they and the respective riders are. GVA never did, and probably never will, be able to do that.

 

[Brullnux]

Nibali did not have bad luck, he took unnecessary risks and crashed by his own mistake. He can only blame himself. And Henao was inattentive behind. Well okay, you might claim Henao was unlucky but definitely not Nibali.

Hope this helps.

Did you see him crash?

Well, Nibali said the exact same thing in a post-race interview. He's gracious in defeat and victory. Well, he didn't call it unnecessary risks because according to him he would've been caught without taking those risks.

He also said that it was because he hit some debris on the road that he crashed, right?

He said that he was taking risks to drop Henao then during a corner the front wheel slipped a bit, he tried to hold it up but by doing so the trajectory of the corner naturally becomes wider, which caused him to crash against the kerb or whatever.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Did you watch the olympic road race? Majka was going to survive until GVA attacked. Yes, he didn't pull as much as Jakob but that's because it was tactically astute not to. GVA is a great rider, not Sagan level, but nobody is.

I beg your pardon?

He didn't. You are welcome to actually measure the length of their pulls.

Both went all out. It's impossible to measure, but there is absolutely no reason to believe GVA didn't go all out as he had absolutely no reason to hesitate and it's also not in his nature.
He only "wheelsucks" when facing a likely stronger rider in the sprint.

 

[Kwibus]

Nibali did not have bad luck, he took unnecessary risks and crashed by his own mistake. He can only blame himself. And Henao was inattentive behind. Well okay, you might claim Henao was unlucky but definitely not Nibali.

Hope this helps.

Did you see him crash?

Nibali himself said he was going all out in an attempt to put pressure on Henao, Majka.

 

[Kwibus]

Whatever the discussion. Sagan right now is the best cyclist in the world.

Allthough comparing a rider like Sagan to a rider like Froome for instance is pretty much impossible. Fact is the way Sagan is riding this year he is the one who deserves that Velo d'Or imo.

 

[Durden93]

Re:

I'm not saying that GVA isn't a fantastic, badass rider. He is. He is phenomenal.

I'm just saying that he never won a big race like Sagan did last year at the worlds, or this year at RVV. His tour win this year was a breakaway. Compare that to Sagan's wins as well.

I believe that if Sagan was in that group instead of GVA, everyone would race much harder in those big hills, and even the peloton wouldn't have let him go in the first place.

He deserves all the credit in the world for his gutsy, unexpected win. But some members, somehow, for some reason, think that the strongest guy of that race won. They think that GVA won by destroying everyone. He didn't. He was one of the strongest that were allowed to go. He wasn't strong enough to go with Nibs and Henao. He was lucky, gutsy and deserved his win. But that's far from being a "Sagan" moment.

That's a fair argument. If you want to define a top shelf rider as one who can win while being marked then I guess Sagan, Cancellara, Boonen, Froome, Contador, Quintana, Kristoff, Nibali, Valverde, Purito and Degenkolb are in that group and not too many others (apologies if I left a rider out, this wasn't meant to be an exhaustive list. I hope it's clear to you that I have no animosity towards you, I enjoy such discussions.

 

[MacBAir]

Re: Re:

I'm not saying that GVA isn't a fantastic, badass rider. He is. He is phenomenal.

I'm just saying that he never won a big race like Sagan did last year at the worlds, or this year at RVV. His tour win this year was a breakaway. Compare that to Sagan's wins as well.

I believe that if Sagan was in that group instead of GVA, everyone would race much harder in those big hills, and even the peloton wouldn't have let him go in the first place.

He deserves all the credit in the world for his gutsy, unexpected win. But some members, somehow, for some reason, think that the strongest guy of that race won. They think that GVA won by destroying everyone. He didn't. He was one of the strongest that were allowed to go. He wasn't strong enough to go with Nibs and Henao. He was lucky, gutsy and deserved his win. But that's far from being a "Sagan" moment.

That's a fair argument. If you want to define a top shelf rider as one who can win while being marked then I guess Sagan, Cancellara, Boonen, Froome, Contador, Quintana, Kristoff, Nibali, Valverde, Purito and Degenkolb are in that group and not too many others (apologies if I left a rider out, this wasn't meant to be an exhaustive list. I hope it's clear to you that I have no animosity towards you, I enjoy such discussions.

Exactly! And who can do that in monuments? You filter that list. And who can do that without having to wait for sprints? You filter that list again. And who can do it without any substancial team support? And you filter it again.

And who could do it with the rainbow jersey on his back? I only remember Tom, in 2006 RVV against an relatively weaker field. That's why Peter is so special, to me. Watching him win the race that way, after he never stopped trying riding his lungs out on previous races. And it was clear that he was getting stronger and stronger.

I still believe that if PR didn't turn out that way, he would've won solo or at least beaten Canc on the Velodrome. And then we have to take into consideration what happened at MSR. Sagan is a monument winner and is beating those same sprinters today, left and right.

He has to be the best cyclist today, meaning that he is one of the best of all time (modern era Vs older eras mean a lot of difference in palmares). Only Canc in 2010, Boonen in 2005 seemed as great as Sagan has been this year.

Don't count him out to win in Doha solo after the crosswinds.

I just can't avoid becoming a big fanboy of anyone that looks behind and sees the rest of the peloton on a flat tour stage, and says to himself "I'm going to bring hell to you", and rides away with the yellow jersey without accelerating, but with sheer power. It was even better than Cancellara in 2007!

 

[DFA123]

Sagan's got very little chance of winning Paris Roubaix. He can't ride for six hours with almost no recovery and put out any kind of sprint finish. He'd get beaten by the likes of Stannard in a sprint by the end of PR if he ever made the final selection, let alone true fast men like Kristoff, Degenkolb or GVA.

The only way he could do it is go solo. And as has been pointed out over and over and over again in this thread, he's too well marked now.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Sagan's got very little chance of winning Paris Roubaix. He can't ride for six hours with almost no recovery and put out any kind of sprint finish. He'd get beaten by the likes of Stannard in a sprint by the end of PR if he ever made the final selection, let alone true fast men like Kristoff, Degenkolb or GVA.

The only way he could do it is go solo. And as has been pointed out over and over and over again in this thread, he's too well marked now.

If Sagan has the strength to ride everyone off his wheel then I don't think being well marked would make much of a difference.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Sagan's got very little chance of winning Paris Roubaix. He can't ride for six hours with almost no recovery and put out any kind of sprint finish. He'd get beaten by the likes of Stannard in a sprint by the end of PR if he ever made the final selection, let alone true fast men like Kristoff, Degenkolb or GVA.

The only way he could do it is go solo. And as has been pointed out over and over and over again in this thread, he's too well marked now.

If Sagan has the strength to ride everyone off his wheel then I don't think being well marked would make much of a difference.

Yeah, that's not happening at PR though. He's tried it a couple of times and got about 20m up the road before being pulled back. He needs recovery between efforts to put out close to his best power - and you don't get that at PR.

 

[Brullnux]

I wouldn't write it off. It hasn't happened in the past but this is the strongest we've ever seen Sagan, and I think there is still some room for improvement. Not much, but some. Last year's Sagan has nothing in this year's sagan, and we didn't see this him in the mix this year. I'd be surprised if he retires never having won Paris-Roubaix

 

[MacBAir]

Re: Re:

Sagan's got very little chance of winning Paris Roubaix. He can't ride for six hours with almost no recovery and put out any kind of sprint finish. He'd get beaten by the likes of Stannard in a sprint by the end of PR if he ever made the final selection, let alone true fast men like Kristoff, Degenkolb or GVA.

The only way he could do it is go solo. And as has been pointed out over and over and over again in this thread, he's too well marked now.

If Sagan has the strength to ride everyone off his wheel then I don't think being well marked would make much of a difference.

Yeah, that's not happening at PR though. He's tried it a couple of times and got about 20m up the road before being pulled back. He needs recovery between efforts to put out close to his best power - and you don't get that at PR.

You have to be very peculiar to say that Sagan can't win Roubaix. Sagan, the guy that won the RVV and worlds Solo by being the strongest. The guy that rode the Peloponnese of his wheel at the tour.

Any rider has a chance at Roubaix, even a grimpeur. It's all about how the race goes.

So, if someone seriously say that the strongest rider on the Peloton has no chance, I can't even... On a year where Hayman won.

To the ignore list you go.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Sagan's got very little chance of winning Paris Roubaix. He can't ride for six hours with almost no recovery and put out any kind of sprint finish. He'd get beaten by the likes of Stannard in a sprint by the end of PR if he ever made the final selection, let alone true fast men like Kristoff, Degenkolb or GVA.

The only way he could do it is go solo. And as has been pointed out over and over and over again in this thread, he's too well marked now.

If Sagan has the strength to ride everyone off his wheel then I don't think being well marked would make much of a difference.

Yeah, that's not happening at PR though. He's tried it a couple of times and got about 20m up the road before being pulled back. He needs recovery between efforts to put out close to his best power - and you don't get that at PR.

You have to be very peculiar to say that Sagan can't win Roubaix. Sagan, the guy that won the RVV and worlds Solo by being the strongest. The guy that rode the Peloponnese of his wheel at the tour.

Any rider has a chance at Roubaix, even a grimpeur. It's all about how the race goes.

So, if someone seriously say that the strongest rider on the Peloton has no chance, I can't even... On a year where Hayman won.

To the ignore list you go.

Quintana will never, ever be able to win Paris-Roubaix. No matter how the race goes.

Hayman was definitely one of the strongest this year too. Otherwise he wouldn't have won, and Sagan isn't as well suited to the race as he is to Ronde Van Vlandeeren, this isn't really that debatable. Sagan will probably win Paris-Roubaix at one point in his career, but your last comment seems extremely rash and pointless. An 'ignore everyone with a different opinion' approach will get you nowhere.

 

[DFA123]

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

Fabian says hi

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

In 2014, he was front of the race after Carrefour de l'Arbre with Degenkolb, Cancellara, Stybar and Vanmarcke. It's pretty close to winning in my book.

 

[Billie]

Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

this is very strict. Which rider has proven to you that he can win Roubaix then?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

In 2014, he was front of the race after Carrefour de l'Arbre with Degenkolb, Cancellara, Stybar and Vanmarcke. It's pretty close to winning in my book.

But the fact he didn't win the sprint for 2nd was because he can't sprint well at the end of a hard race with no recovery; he never has been able to do that. He finished in the first main group but was no closer to winning than Wiggins was because there were numerous guys with more left at the finish.

Sagan needs periods of recovery in races between hard efforts to win. RVV is perfect for that - Paris Roubaix gives you no respite - just six hours of constant pedalling somewhere between tempo effort and anaerobic.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

this is very strict. Which rider has proven to you that he can win Roubaix then?

Riders who can finish strongly after very hard races, with little or no recovery. The likes of Degenkolb, Kristoff, GVA, Stybar, Terpstra and Vanmarcke are all much bigger favourites for me. Sagan's sprint falls of a cliff after he has made a significant number of hard efforts in a race with not enough recovery.

 

[saganboss]

Re: Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

this is very strict. Which rider has proven to you that he can win Roubaix then?

Riders who can finish strongly after very hard races, with little or no recovery. The likes of Degenkolb, Kristoff, GVA, Stybar, Terpstra and Vanmarcke are all much bigger favourites for me. Sagan's sprint falls of a cliff after he has made a significant number of hard efforts in a race with not enough recovery.

wow, you named stybar, a guy who hasn't won anything important, greg, who's best was a 3rd place so still not strong enough and terpstra who won by pure luck because he was dropped on the cobbles and also vanmarckem who wagain didn't win anything in his career

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

this is very strict. Which rider has proven to you that he can win Roubaix then?

Riders who can finish strongly after very hard races, with little or no recovery. The likes of Degenkolb, Kristoff, GVA, Stybar, Terpstra and Vanmarcke are all much bigger favourites for me. Sagan's sprint falls of a cliff after he has made a significant number of hard efforts in a race with not enough recovery.

wow, you named stybar, a guy who hasn't won anything important, greg, who's best was a 3rd place so still not strong enough and terpstra who won by pure luck because he was dropped on the cobbles and also vanmarckem who wagain didn't win anything in his career

Yet all four of those have far better results and performances than Sagan at Paris Roubaix. Not because they are better riders in general, but because their skills are much more suited to that particular race.

 

[Gigs_98]

The point is that Sagan never had a spring season like this years. Let's not forget that his main rival this year was a Cancellara who needed about 10 meters of the Oude Kwaremont to drop the whole peloton, but still Sagan finished higher in every single cobbles race both entered. So I think we can all agree that Sagan is on a higher level than in the years before, at least in the spring (his tdf shape didn't seem to be much better than in 2015), and therefore we can't say he will definitely never be able to win PR because he never was good there. And anyway Sagan has only ridden PR 3 times as a leader. 2015 his spring shape was bad so he only finished 23rd, but in 2014 he was 6th and this year he was 11th which imo is a really impressive result considering he was always behind the winning break from 110 km on.

The race obviously doesn't suit him as well as RVV, but saying that he has no chance to win the race in the future imo is wrong too.

 

[saganboss]

Re: Re:

lol at a grimpeur having a chance at Paris Roubaix. Looking forward to next years battle in the Arenberg between Quintana and Contador.

Sagan's is 26 year old and has one won monument. He's never been close to winning Paris Roubaix and has never showed the abilities needed to win it. Being able to sprint or put out a decisive max power effort at the end of a really hard race with no recovery, is not the kind of skill you acquire in the second half of a career.

this is very strict. Which rider has proven to you that he can win Roubaix then?

Riders who can finish strongly after very hard races, with little or no recovery. The likes of Degenkolb, Kristoff, GVA, Stybar, Terpstra and Vanmarcke are all much bigger favourites for me. Sagan's sprint falls of a cliff after he has made a significant number of hard efforts in a race with not enough recovery.

wow, you named stybar, a guy who hasn't won anything important, greg, who's best was a 3rd place so still not strong enough and terpstra who won by pure luck because he was dropped on the cobbles and also vanmarckem who wagain didn't win anything in his career

Yet all four of those have far better results and performances than Sagan at Paris Roubaix. Not because they are better riders in general, but because their skills are much more suited to that particular race.

but still not enough to win, you said that they can finish strong but the best they could do was being beaten by a non-sprinter, cancellara, so where's the strong finishers

 

[Brullnux]

Vanmarcke will find it more difficult than Sagan to win Paris-Roubaix because he lacks the engine and the sprint. He is fantastic over the cobbles but he is a poor rouleur. We say that this year, and on many other occasions. He cannot keep the pace high for very long, and that is very bad in Paris-Roubaix, worse than Sagan's issues.

Edit: And Kristoff has shown even less at Paris-Roubaix than Sagan, and it seems as if he has peaked. He is losing races he would've won without trouble last year