Who will beat Cav in the Sprint stage(s) of The Tour?

[Bernie's eyesore]

Cavendish was just pretending to be crap in the Ster ZLM (it takes a real talent to pretend to be crap and still win the overall). Now other teams will be prepared to chase down breaks in the Tour as they will think Cav is there for the taking. The trouble with this strategy is that once he has won a couple of stages, it won't work anymore.

 

[Machu Picchu]

Cavendish was just pretending to be crap in the Ster ZLM (it takes a real talent to pretend to be crap and still win the overall). Now other teams will be prepared to chase down breaks in the Tour as they will think Cav is there for the taking. The trouble with this strategy is that once he has won a couple of stages, it won't work anymore.

Yeah that was why sky won't be chasing down every break cause they have wiggins to look after and others will be going for the green jersey.

 

[Gloin22]

Yeah that was why sky won't be chasing down every break cause they have wiggins to look after and others will be going for the green jersey.

Still that is partially true, when team beats Cav they gain morale and will be mroe likely to chase and help Sky. It's not big effect, but it defo has some.

 

[karlboss]

Well that criterion rules out Greipel entirely.

I've rarely seen a sprinter with worse positional sense.

Greipel's often faster than Cav, but the Manxman has no peers when it comes to positioning.

Just compare them in the Copenhagen world championship road race: Greipel was almost twice as fast in the closing meters, but Cav found the 'impossible' gap to win by meters.

The reason Greipel closes so fast is because he comes from so far back. He accelerates in the draft of the group, vs Cav and Goss who either accelerate in the wind or at best in the draft of one rider. Even riding past the group on one side gives noticable advantage. Head to head, no draft, I'd be surprised if Greipel is faster than Cav at all.

 

[greenedge]

Just compare them in the Copenhagen world championship road race: Greipel was almost twice as fast in the closing meters, but Cav found the 'impossible' gap to win by meters.

I thought Goss was faster over the end. Also he was stuck behind Sagan/ Cav got the jump on him.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

I am amazed at the lack of faith in Cavendish in this thread. I can not understand how some people write him off so easily (the same that wrote him off in 2010 and 2011) after being proven wrong so many times by him. It must be wishful thinking.
Cavendish loosing a couple a stage is one thing but suggesting that he won't won a stage at the TDF like some suggested is a bold statement to say the least. It's not like he is getting any slower or anything :
2010 prior to the Tour - 3 victories (Catalunya stage, Romandie stage, California stage) = 5 TDF stages
2011 prior to the Tour - 4 victories (Oman stage, Schelderprijs, Giro stage X2 (+TTT)) = 5 TDF stages + green jersey
2012 prior to the Tour - 8 victories (Qatar stage X2, KBK, Tirreno stage, Giro stage X3, ZLM Tour GC) = ?


Of the riders in the poll, Farrar has shown nothing all year and does not have the same motivation as last year, Goss has won a crash marred sprint in the Giro and that's basically it, plus he is more an uphill style of sprinter, Renshaw is overrated, has no train and only a win so far this year (Turkey stage).
It would be unlikely that they win a flat bunch sprint at the TDF this year (Goss could take a stage like Seraing though).
Sagan and Kittel are discovering the Tour and are going head to head with Cavendish for the first time so it is impossible to judge them yet.
Greipel is going to challenge Cavendish but remember that his victory against Cavendish last year came after a massive fail of the HTC train and Cavendish had to go way too early to catch Oss (circumstances unlikely to repeat themselves).
Petacchi though not in the poll deserved to be mentioned as he always manage to take a couple of stage of Cavendish no matter what his form appears to be before the Tour/Giro.
Freire can never be counted out and Rojas was very strong last year but it is hard to see them win a bunch sprint (rather stages like Annonay/Porrentruy).
I think that is about it for his competition.


Now let’s look at his opportunity for winning stages :
Stages where he will compete : Tournai, Boulogne-sur-mer, Rouen, Saint-Quentin, Metz, Le Cap d'Agde, Pau, Brive, Paris
Stages where he could compete (aka not the favorite but not a huge upset if he won there) if ridden with favorable circumstances : Seraing (last climb will probably be too tough), Porrentruy (the climbs are unlikely to be raced hard + are short so if he starts the climbs at the front of the peloton he probably won't have time to get dropped from the group), Annonay (the climbs won't have any impact because too far from the finish), Foix (breakaway stage so the climbs will be ridden slowly + far from the finish, if for some reason the breakaway does not suceed Cavendish could clean up). They might look like a stretch but remember 1) that Cavendish always finds his climbing legs for the Tour 2) he has supposedly lost 4kgs 3) his Aubenas stage win in 2009.
How many he wins will be determined by when/if he pulls out, how committed to him Sky will be, how many crashes he is involved in (or rather triggered ), if he is able to break his "course" of losing the first bunch sprint of a GT, and how Kittel/Sagan will fare. Barring illness or injury, I'd say he will win 6 but more conservatively I would say 3-5 is the most probable outcome with Greipel/Kittel/Sagan/Petacchi winning the left-overs bunch sprints and Freire/Rojas/Sagan/Goss winning the tougher sprint stages.

 

[patterson_hood]

Cav has said himself he doesn't expect to win as many this year, and is sacrificing top speed to be there at the end at the Olympics.

Lets see how he goes but it could point to some versatility many people here think Cav is incapable of, and may bode well for his conversion to a reasonable Classics rider later in his career.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Cav has said himself he doesn't expect to win as many this year, and is sacrificing top speed to be there at the end at the Olympics.

I would not read too much into it. He needs other teams to pull back breakaways especially with half the team at Wiggins' service and he is not getting any outside help if he says he is going to crush everyone everyday of the race.

 

[Morbius]

Could be a game of bluff in the early sprint stages as everyone waits for Sky to do some work. Maybe some breakaway chances

 

[patterson_hood]

I would not read too much into it. He needs other teams to pull back breakaways especially with half the team at Wiggins' service and he is not getting any outside help if he says he is going to crush everyone everyday of the race.

But then there are at least 2 teams who will pretty much only be going for sprints, OGE and Argos-Shimano, and several other teams with sprinters who will work, Lotto, Lampre, Liquigas, maybe even Katusha. I think Sky might be of the opinion that if no one works the break can get away, this may be another reason Cav thinks he won't win as many.

 

[zigmeister]

I think it is fair to say that Cav is only an average sprinter with mixed results when his leadout train falls apart and he has to find his own wheel.

When the leadout train is working, he is pretty much unstoppable.

But when some issue gets thrown into the mix that screws up the train, he is only maybe 30-50% chance of winning the sprint.

There are too many other strong sprinters, Greipel, Sagan and Kittle particularly, that are often used to not having the best leadouts, and have to find their own way to the finish.

Sagan, without a doubt, is probably the most confident and fearless sprinter in the World right now. His size, strength and huge gonads make him a contender for any sprint.

But, with all of these sprint stages at the TDF, there is often pandamonium, crazy moves and just plain stupid riding by many guys wanting to make a name for themselves and grab a piece of glory, that can take people out in crashes left and right.

So who knows what is going to happen until it does. Wait and see.

 

[karlboss]

I think it is fair to say that Cav is only an average sprinter with mixed results when his leadout train falls apart and he has to find his own wheel.

When the leadout train is working, he is pretty much unstoppable.

But when some issue gets thrown into the mix that screws up the train, he is only maybe 30-50% chance of winning the sprint.

There are too many other strong sprinters, Greipel, Sagan and Kittle particularly, that are often used to not having the best leadouts, and have to find their own way to the finish.

Sagan, without a doubt, is probably the most confident and fearless sprinter in the World right now. His size, strength and huge gonads make him a contender for any sprint.

But, with all of these sprint stages at the TDF, there is often pandamonium, crazy moves and just plain stupid riding by many guys wanting to make a name for themselves and grab a piece of glory, that can take people out in crashes left and right.

So who knows what is going to happen until it does. Wait and see.

I humbly disagree with almost everything you just said.

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

I humbly disagree with almost everything you just said.

That's because what he said was a load of b*******.

 

[Nick C.]

If you read between the lines it sound like Cav is incredible. Think about it with a train he can't be beat. Farrar among others try but fail regulalry when their team tries this (I think last year with Thor he was about 50% with the leadout in Giro, Tirreno and TDF). Cav when all fails, still wins 30-50% of the time ... leaving 50-70% or 2/3 -2/4 for Greipel, Farrar, Freeire, Thor, Petacchi and the field (in the past now Goss, Renshaw, Sagan and Kittel are in the mix).

 

[Ruby United]

Is it right to assume that the people who voted for 'other' was b/c of Pettacchi???

 

[fatsprintking]

Is it right to assume that the people who voted for 'other' was b/c of Pettacchi???

Oscar Freire - will win the sprint at the top of the climb stage 1 and will beat the new skinny Cav if he manages to get his a__ up there.

 

[Von Mises]

I think it is fair to say that Cav is only an average sprinter with mixed results when his leadout train falls apart and he has to find his own wheel.


But when some issue gets thrown into the mix that screws up the train, he is only maybe 30-50% chance of winning the sprint.

And you call this average?

 

[Hawkwood]

I think it is fair to say that Cav is only an average sprinter with mixed results when his leadout train falls apart and he has to find his own wheel.....

He won the World Championship having lost his leadout train in the last kilometre, watch the video.

 

[Northern rider]

And you call this average?

Yes, you'd think the likes of Farrar and Rojas would give their right gonad to be that average and win every second or third race they were in, when things didn't go to plan.

 

[Azabael]

Sagan's sprints were impressive. But that's mostly it. They looked impressive, his competition this year wasn't. When you look at his victories this year, he only beat 2nd class sprinters. In contrary to Kittel's results this year. So based on that, Kittel for me. But then there's also this thing called form, which we'll have to wait for to find out.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I voted Greipel. In a pancake flat finish, I think he's the only one who will beat him this year. Although Kittel can probably do is as well.

Sagan will win on the tougher finishes.

Does anyone know whether Saur-Sojasun plans on bringing both Simon and Poulhies? The latter was quite good in Rute du Sud, although the competition wasn't exactly the level of the Tour, while Simon has been good all year but seems to me more like an uphill sprinter.

Oh, I would have loved to see Pelucchi in the Tour, but I understand why Europcar would want bring Chavanel over him, even though Matteo clearly is far quicker.

 

[will10]

I'd be very surprised if Saur didn't bring Simon, he's there best chance for a stage win on one of the transitional stages.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

https://twitter.com/Porterelliott/status/216168491592593410/photo/1

Fatty.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'd be very surprised if Saur didn't bring Simon, he's there best chance for a stage win on one of the transitional stages.

Oh, Simon is a certainty. It's Poulhies I have my doubts about.

 

[zigmeister]

3 people thought Renshaw would win. Must be a joke.

What a huge disappointment that guy has been this year without his second to last leadout spot ahead of Cav.

No excuses except that he isn't a good sprinter, any silliness about not having a leadout is lame. Many guys, like Sagan, rarely get a real good leadout the last KM-1/2km, they are usually on their own except Cav.