Who will TT better in this years tour. Evans, Menchov or Wiggins?

[Zoncolan]

IF they all bring their top form to the Tour/avoid crashes, etc. Then, I believe Wiggins and Evans should be within 5 seconds of each other in the prologue, with Menchov some 20 secs back.
Hilly ITT should be really close, with no more than 30 seconds separating the three.
The last ITT should see Wiggins taking some time out of the other two (30 seconds or so), who should be close together.
Not that it will make any difference for Wiggins, whom I believe will lose big time in one of the big mountain stages.
As I stated before, the Tour will be won by one of these three:
1. Evans
2. Menchov
3. A. Schleck

 

[Angliru]

Who will animate the race? Andy Schleck? Gain 20-60 secs on two or three stages? I don't think BMC and Sky cares much. They will drive the group up the mountains at a very fast pace limiting any gaps. Later Evans and Wiggins will take any gaps back by a factor of 2-3 in the TT's. Simple and workable tactic.

All driving the group up the mountain at a fast pace will do, at least in Sky's case, is put Wiggins into the red, making him unable to have anything left to respond when Andy or Samu launch their attacks. The UK Postal moniker is novel and all but having that blue train in the mountains is less of a factor when your rider is like the 8th best climber among the overall contenders as opposed to being one of the top 3. Riding at that tempo will only leave Wiggins isolated once his support burns themselves out.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

All driving the group up the mountain at a fast pace will do, at least in Sky's case, is put Wiggins into the red, making him unable to have anything left to respond when Andy or Samu launch their attacks. The UK Postal moniker is novel and all but having that blue train in the mountains is less of a factor when your rider is like the 8th best climber among the overall contenders as opposed to being one of the top 3. Riding at that tempo will only leave Wiggins isolated once his support burns themselves out.

I don't see anybody in the tour this year, that can drop Wiggins on the climbs to an extend where the TT's will not be the key factor. Instead Evans, Wiggins and perhaps Menchov will work nicely together up the mountains setting a strong group pace making any gaps manageable. After that its all to play for in the last TT.

So why do I think Wiggins will manage to hang on and limit the gaps on the climbs? Well, compared to the likes of Andy Schleck and Samu, Wiggins showed significant progress last year and I can see this trend continuing

 

[maltiv]

I don't see anybody in the tour this year, that can drop Wiggins on the climbs to an extend where the TT's will not be the key factor. Instead Evans, Wiggins and perhaps Menchov will work nicely together up the mountains setting a strong group pace making any gaps manageable. After that its all to play for in the last TT.

So why do I think Wiggins will manage to hang on and limit the gaps on the climbs? Well, compared to the likes of Andy Schleck and Samu, Wiggins showed significant progress last year and I can see this trend continuing

Actually I think he'll lose more time on the descents than on the climbs. He's a terrible descender and guys like Evans, Nibali and Samu could easily put 2 minutes on him on that downhill finish if it's wet.

 

[richtea]

Is this correct? I know he lost a few seconds to Nibali in the Vuelta, but can't think of another example: can't remember anyone extending a significant gap in Paris-Nice for instance. What was Sanchez's gap at the top of that last climb on the final stage - obviously it was 16 seconds at the finish line...

 

[hatcher]

Actually I think he'll lose more time on the descents than on the climbs. He's a terrible descender and guys like Evans, Nibali and Samu could easily put 2 minutes on him on that downhill finish if it's wet.

He really isn't. He was terrible in the Vuelta, but he admitted he feared falling on his collarbone again.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Actually I think he'll lose more time on the descents than on the climbs. He's a terrible descender and guys like Evans, Nibali and Samu could easily put 2 minutes on him on that downhill finish if it's wet.

Fair point. Stage 16 could provide the gaps in some conditions.

 

[WillemS]

This year will be the only year for Menchov to possibly win the tour, thus I am worried that he will crash a lot due to pressure. That happened to him before and might happen this year too. Normally he's good when he's riding a GT that was not his original focus, such as a pre-Tour Giro or a failed-Tour Vuelta. If he can handle the pressure, he might probably ride excellent ITTs.

Evans seemed really confident in the BMC-report on Sporza. He seems confident, his posture and attitude in interviews is relaxed, I think he will be great this year. He doesn't have to worry about the classics, like the Schleck brothers always did in the past, with Gilbert & Hushovd on his team, and I think he will be really strong in the Tour, thus practically unbeatable in the ITT as far as GC-riders go.

With Wiggins I just don't know. I never know when he's good, when he's just-not-good-enough (which he seems to be a lot) or when he's hopeless. I don't think he will be the best of the GC-riders in the ITTs.

 

[hughmoore]

There are two ITTs before the Mountains, how much time will Shleck loose in first two tts, 20 secs on prologue, 90 seconds on second?

I have no idea, just guessing

It will suit Evans to have Wiggins in Yellow for first week.

Hugh

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I find myself unable to make neutral judgements in these types of threads.

i dont like the pointless poll threads at all. i could make a thread on any little questions really. WHat's the point? wiggo v evans, martin vs etc etc..These questions are (or can) all covered and discussed in one thread really (winner of tdu).

anyway my answer = wiggo.

 

[Ripper]

I think Wiggo is a better natural time trialist than the other 2 and I think he will do better in the first long TT. However, doing well in the final TT of a GT is not always about pure TT ability. I think Evans or Menchov edge out Wiggo there, as they both have demonstrated the ability in a GT to kill it in a long TT and still climb extremely well. I think Wiggo will have at least one shaky day in the mountains and his form in the final TT will be in question.

I'm not saying he can't do it, just that I am not so sure.

BTW - I took this as who would be the best placed overall (GC), not just as who would be best in the TTs.

 

[royalpig180]

I think in any other context besides a GT, Wiggins has to be the outright favorite, by quite a margin. However, given that the TdF is 3 weeks long and recovery is more important, I think Evans will be much closer to him. With that said, I would imagine that Wiggins will do better in the TTs of the TdF because he is still the superior time-trialist and he will have been working on his TT as well with a view towards London several weeks later.

Despite this, Evans will win the Tour as he is just that much more consistent than Wiggins in the mountains. Wiggins could definitely be on the podium though this depends completely on how tactics in the mountains play out.

 

[Bikemadjo]

Surprised to see Wiggins dominate this poll. Considering he has never dominated a time trial in a GT, even if we ignore Martin/Cancellara.

that could be because the only on form year he had was last year and he broke his collarbone. Wiggins will win all three TT and make the podium in Paris.

GC and Green for SKY

 

[greenedge]

Wiggins is far superior in a tt, he will definitely beat Evans in the prologue by a tiny amount but should be able to put 30 into Evans in a hilly one/QUOTE]

I disagree with that idea. Wiggins usually has bad form at the start of any race ( he throws away time ) and i think his performance at Annecy whilst 2nd best of the GC men was quite poor. Therefore i think Evans could beat him in the hilly ITT.

 

[greenedge]

Evans seemed really confident in the BMC-report on Sporza. He seems confident, his posture and attitude in interviews is relaxed, I think he will be great this year. He doesn't have to worry about the classics, like the Schleck brothers always did in the past, with Gilbert & Hushovd on his team, and I think he will be really strong in the Tour, thus practically unbeatable in the ITT as far as GC-riders go.

Evans does not have to worry about the Classics but he will still put in a good performance there/ help Gilbert. Also Zaugg and Fuglsang last year did quite well in the Ardennes and although the Shlecks could have done better at L-BL they still got 2nd/ 3rd.

 

[greenedge]

I don't see anybody in the tour this year, that can drop Wiggins on the climbs to an extend where the TT's will not be the key factor. Instead Evans, Wiggins and perhaps Menchov will work nicely together up the mountains setting a strong group pace making any gaps manageable. After that its all to play for in the last TT.

So why do I think Wiggins will manage to hang on and limit the gaps on the climbs? Well, compared to the likes of Andy Schleck and Samu, Wiggins showed significant progress last year and I can see this trend continuing

Samu is older than Wiggins/ came to GC Racing earlier then Wiggins. Besides he did well at the TDF. Andy has no need to progress mountain wise.

Also if Evans believes Wiggins is better in the ITTs' would he not try drop him in the mountains/ go with the attacks Wiggins can't go with

 

[Kvinto]

Well, of course out of these three Bradley has not shown wonders of recuperation yet but i do believe it will have changed until the Tour.

I dunno, as every tter who all of a sudden becomes a GT guy Wiggins had not been among my favourite riders, but the last Worlds made me change my mind, I like him now. So even though i don't see him winning the Tour, maybe my opinion about his GT time trialling is not as neutral as i think

 

[movingtarget]

This year will be the only year for Menchov to possibly win the tour, thus I am worried that he will crash a lot due to pressure. That happened to him before and might happen this year too. Normally he's good when he's riding a GT that was not his original focus, such as a pre-Tour Giro or a failed-Tour Vuelta. If he can handle the pressure, he might probably ride excellent ITTs.

Evans seemed really confident in the BMC-report on Sporza. He seems confident, his posture and attitude in interviews is relaxed, I think he will be great this year. He doesn't have to worry about the classics, like the Schleck brothers always did in the past, with Gilbert & Hushovd on his team, and I think he will be really strong in the Tour, thus practically unbeatable in the ITT as far as GC-riders go.

With Wiggins I just don't know. I never know when he's good, when he's just-not-good-enough (which he seems to be a lot) or when he's hopeless. I don't think he will be the best of the GC-riders in the ITTs.

Why wouldn't Evans be confident. He looked confident during the race last year and when he got into trouble in the last week he managed to get himself out of trouble without much help from anyone else. I think the win will only put him more at ease even though this year a lot of people expect him to win. I think there has to be more doubts about Schleck than Evans based on last year's race. Many are expecting Wiggins and Menchov to fire but VDB, Sanchez, Leipheimer and Nibali even Gesink will go into the race with hardly any pressure at all not to mention Rolland or Voeckler who will be looking to improve on last year's results. Could be a few surprises in the top five.

 

[Angliru]

I don't see anybody in the tour this year, that can drop Wiggins on the climbs to an extend where the TT's will not be the key factor. Instead Evans, Wiggins and perhaps Menchov will work nicely together up the mountains setting a strong group pace making any gaps manageable. After that its all to play for in the last TT.

So why do I think Wiggins will manage to hang on and limit the gaps on the climbs? Well, compared to the likes of Andy Schleck and Samu, Wiggins showed significant progress last year and I can see this trend continuing

I'm not sure how you can say Samu didn't or did show progress since he lost time early in the Tour and was battling to get it back for the next 2 weeks.

 

[Froome19]

I'm not sure how you can say Samu didn't or did show progress since he lost time early in the Tour and was battling to get it back for the next 2 weeks.

His perfomance was certainly not better than 2010, his pyrenees climbing was very good ,yet his climbing in the alps was definitely worse than in 2010 so at best he stayed the same yet looking at his GC place even not considering his lost time was worse than 2010 anyway.

 

[DenisMenchov]

 

[The Hitch]

His perfomance was certainly not better than 2010, his pyrenees climbing was very good ,yet his climbing in the alps was definitely worse than in 2010 so at best he stayed the same yet looking at his GC place even not considering his lost time was worse than 2010 anyway.

Its difficult to judge Samu because he was eliminated from the GC before the racing began, so he was just going for stages and attacks every day and concequently blew on 1 of the mountain stages where he just took it easy thereafter so that he could attack AGAIN the next day on Alpe.

 

[Froome19]

Its difficult to judge Samu because he was eliminated from the GC before the racing began, so he was just going for stages and attacks every day and concequently blew on 1 of the mountain stages where he just took it easy thereafter so that he could attack AGAIN the next day on Alpe.

Granted he may have performed as well as 2010 but it takes a stretch of the imagination to claim he has improved.

 

[Fetisoff]

Does anyone have the supposed profile of that hilly time-trial?

 

[DenisMenchov]

Does anyone have the supposed profile of that hilly time-trial?

Even ASO doesn't.