Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[roundabout]

A couple of things or rather a bit more details about the route.

Peyresourde from the Bales downhill is 9.7km at 7.8%. Peyragudes via the new road is 3km at 7.6% (maximum of 14% near the start of the climb) with the last km flat.

PdBF according to Pinot is harder than it looks on the profile and there was talk of an extra artificial ramp at the end which seems to be present on this profile.

Of course given the nature of the route overall these details don't make any real difference. Wiggins needs to be dropped well before the final kicks.

 

[Fidolix]

Cadel ftw, would be surprised if Wiggo can keep up his form for 3 weeks.

Heres a little appetizer from 2011, highlights and stage 16 with alberto attack on Col de Manse, nice vid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyv4u4kLwU4

 

[Aapjes]

Ah, lovely. Reversed logic. There are more people using roads, so roads decay faster. This is a fact. Not counting Brussels, the density in Flanders is 15% higher than Netherlands. Counting Brussels, that number rises to 33%. This is also a fact.

Very insignificant differences, especially if you consider that the Randstad is where most Dutch people live and it has 3 times the population density of Flanders. Are the roads there worse than in the rest of NL or in Flanders? No. Your logic simply doesn't work or the roads in the Randstad would have to be in bad shape or always blocked. They are neither.

I ride daily on one of the most used highways in The Netherlands. When do they do repairs? At night, when traffic density is low and a lane can easily be missed. For one lane roads, they put up a sign warning drivers which evening the road is blocked and during that evening they put up signs directing traffic to a different route. It's rare to have a problem during rush hour (certainly not worse than what I experienced driving to/from Antwerp) and we have good roads.

It's called planning and paying road workers extra bucks to work at night. Apparently, Belgium is incapable/unwilling to do this. Fair enough, it's your taxpayer euro's, but please don't pretend this is not a choice.

Your argument about the randstad... it was good for a laugh. Because obviously, in Flanders, population doesn't rise in or near our cities.

When I drive/ride into Belgium I can tell I passed the border by the state of the road. I can't tell where the Randstad starts by the state of the road. So where is the evidence supporting your claims in real life? You keep making these arguments which are completely divorced from reality, since actual real life facts do not support your 'logic'. Personally, I prefer empiricism over the Aristotelian method.

 

[richtea]

I scoff at the possibility that any of these roads are even remotely as poorly maintained as Highbury New Park, Islington.

 

[Arnout]

I think the last multi climb stage Wiggins competed in with good form and with the right frame of mind was that stage in the 2009 Tour where he lost three minutes.

It's possible, when the others attack before the final km. They won't though, and afterwards they will indeed say "Wiggins is indeed too strong".

Please don't let it be true.

 

[The Hitch]

Cadel ftw, would be surprised if Wiggo can keep up his form for 3 weeks.

Heres a little appetizer from 2011, highlights and stage 16 with alberto attack on Col de Manse, nice vid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyv4u4kLwU4

lol Andy Schleck - its not if we win, its how we win

Thats the most bizzare comment ive ever seen given the circumstances.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Outside of the last one in Paris, if you were given a free bet on which stage you could guarantee will finish in a bunch sprint, which would you go for?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I 100% agree with this. Wiggins doesn't have a big kick but if he's on top form he could ride away from the others. People talk about him winning because of his time trial but if he wins i think it will be in the mountains.

Also, le tour must be soon; it has its own tab on the homepage!! (right beside that huge freakin triathlon tab!)

While i can easily see nobody of importance being able to drop Wiggins in the mountains, i just don't see him dropping all of the other contenders either. He isn't Ulrich or Indurain. And i also don't think he needs to in order to win. If he wins, it will be by holding on to his ITT lead.

Hmmm, he lost 2+ minutes to Cobo in the mountains at last years Vuelta. Probably tougher climbs though. Who'd be a better climber Cobo or Evans?

He wasn't in top shape in the Vuelta though. He had peaked for the Tour, and he was recovering from an injury.

 

[Parrot23]

You guys have all got it wrong.

Cobo's gonna win. Cav is going to win the King of the Mountains. And Ricco's gonna be allowed to ride, taking the green jersey by a country mile.

But more seriously, without as much doping (detectably at least) the racing has been deadly dull, it seems to me, as in processional, funereally glacial (at the Dauphine, and maybe even the Giro to some extent). The Sky procession has all the charm of Hal, the robo space computer in 2001 Space Odyssey (and I'm a fan of Wiggo's, so take that).

Everybody should just be put on Computrainers in an industrial warehouse in the suburbs of Paris and see who wins.

We need Alberto back to put the "fear of God" into the entire peloton when he attacks. Not much of a procession with him around. But on the bright side too, Cadel is certainly an exciting rider, ha, ha!, with lots of opportunism and tactical nous. So maybe all is not lost in the new, cleaner peloton.

 

[movingtarget]

Wiggins deserves his favouritism based on this year's results as so far this year, no other GC rider has come close to having as good a season as him. Even his climbing has improved but the doubters seem to think it is the three week race that will test him, not so much the route or conditions. It may even take the edge off his final TT. I don't think it will be the conservative race many are predicting.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Wiggins deserves his favouritism based on this year's results as so far this year, no other GC rider has come close to having as good a season as him. Even his climbing has improved but the doubters seem to think it is the three week race that will test him, not so much the route or conditions. It may even take the edge off his final TT. I don't think it will be the conservative race many are predicting.

Watch. He will implode big time in the 3rd week.

 

[The Hitch]

Wiggins deserves his favouritism based on this year's results as so far this year, no other GC rider has come close to having as good a season as him..

Nibali with podium in 2 monuments, a mtf stage win and a wt stage race every bit as prestigious as any Wiggins has won, definately does comes close.

For comperison, im pretty sure that if Chris Froome had come 3rd in MSR and 2nd in Liege, never mind winning Tirreno Adriatico, the yellow jersey battle would now be touted as Wiggins vs Froome with maybe Evans (and thats coming from Froome's biggest fan).

Then there is Samu who came top 10 in 2 Ardennes classics, came 2nd in Catalunya (to a breakaway) winning a stage by beating the entire peleton on climb descent and flat, then came podium in 4 of the 6 stages in Pais Vasco winning a road stage (against rider of the year Joaquim Rodriguez rather than lulu) and a time trial to boot, and of course the overall, lags not far behind.

Wiggins has had a better season than the other 2, but its not big a gap as the anglophone hype makes it out to be,

 

[TechnicalDescent]

Watch. He will implode big time in the 3rd week.

I don't think so. If he starts the tour well, he will finish it well. He we either be on it, 2009, or off it, 2010. No implosion.

 

[maxmartin]

once upon a time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcabCL7rX-I&feature=g-vrec

 

[Eric8-A]

So did Tony Martin decide to target the TT's instead of the GC to save everybody the embarrassment of him owning everybody in the mountains?

 

[maxmartin]

So did Tony Martin decide to target the TT's instead of the GC to save everybody the embarrassment of him owning everybody in the mountains?

yes, he said he will only target ITT and olympics

 

[SHAD0W93]

I don't think so. If he starts the tour well, he will finish it well. He we either be on it, 2009, or off it, 2010. No implosion.

We'll just have to wait and see but I think he is going to crack big in 3rd week.

 

[hoolaparara]

Well somehow I managed to not post this yesterday, but having put together my profiles on one sheet for GT watching I found myself lacking climbbybike profiles of note to fill the blank spot at the bottom An amazingly limited route that really makes me want to vote for Wiggins again.

 

[richtea]

Well don't worry, it was worth the wait.

 

[Aapjes]

Outside of the last one in Paris, if you were given a free bet on which stage you could guarantee will finish in a bunch sprint, which would you go for?

Stage 2 is obviously going to be a sprint. Pancake flat route, the finish is straight and wide and teams are still fresh. I think it's even more likely to be a sprint than the last stage (when a late attack can work, like with vino in 2005).

 

[HemmoBosscher]

Evans will win is he is as strong as last year. He could even gain time in stages like stage 1 and Plateau des Filles (sp?), where he and riders like Nibali can finish 10-15 secs in front of Wiggins

 

[greenedge]

Nibali with podium in 2 monuments, a mtf stage win and a wt stage race every bit as prestigious as any Wiggins has won, definately does comes close.

For comperison, im pretty sure that if Chris Froome had come 3rd in MSR and 2nd in Liege, never mind winning Tirreno Adriatico, the yellow jersey battle would now be touted as Wiggins vs Froome with maybe Evans (and thats coming from Froome's biggest fan).

Then there is Samu who came top 10 in 2 Ardennes classics, came 2nd in Catalunya (to a breakaway) winning a stage by beating the entire peleton on climb descent and flat, then came podium in 4 of the 6 stages in Pais Vasco winning a road stage (against rider of the year Joaquim Rodriguez rather than lulu) and a time trial to boot, and of course the overall, lags not far behind.

Wiggins has had a better season than the other 2, but its not big a gap as the anglophone hype makes it out to be,

I think what he meant was Wiggins with his string of wins and the route of the TDF this year is the favourite. The routes of those races also were more similar to the actual TDF, whereas Samus' and Nibalis' wins were largely earn on the climbs.

One question i have is: if Evans is on last years form would he beat Wiggins hands down? In my view he would. I think most people who voted for Wiggins are thinking Cadel will not be in as good form as last year but he has a lot of years behind him now.

What ever the result ( even if Evans wins ) i will regard last year as a more deserving TDF title as there were more MTF's- which i know might be considered narrow-minded but is just my opinion and what most people on here would think. Last years race also had Contador- the best GC racer at the moment. If he was here i would doubt that Wiggins would podium.

 

[uphillstruggle]

I don't think so. If he starts the tour well, he will finish it well. He we either be on it, 2009, or off it, 2010. No implosion.

Yes but when he was 'on it' in 2009 he lost three minute in a mountain stage and was suffering big time on Ventoux.

 

[dlwssonic]

Seems like people are realising who the favourite is.
Cadel is catching up with wiggins quickly.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Remarkable. Breukink in an interview with WF (wielerflits), said Rabobank will look to attack in the mountains. And he names Movistar as most prominent other team that would have to do the same. Maybe they made some sort of deal in ToS already, when Gesink was riding with movistar behind Schleck...