Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Oh God, someone dared to say something about Belgium...

The Dutch have road furniture and non-cycling minded people, the Belgians have crappy roads. There you go, everyone happy.

A dumb remark is a dumb remark, be it about Belgium, Holland, Contador or Wiggins. There are plenty of bad roads in Belgium, but there are also plenty of good ones. If the parcours for the TDF includes bad roads, that's just because they won't include the good ones so take the whining elsewhere. It's just that simple. I don't know what makes you the expert on Belgian roads all of a sudden.

In flanders roads are often bad, because it is one of the most densely populated regions in Europe, so less roads per citizen, more citizens per road. This problem does not exist in Wallonia, because here it's the other way around.

 

[Aapjes]

In flanders roads are often bad, because it is one of the most densely populated regions in Europe, so less roads per citizen, more citizens per road. This problem does not exist in Wallonia, because here it's the other way around.

The population density is almost the same as The netherlands and only a third of the Randstad. Yet both have better roads. It's just a funding issue.

Besides, a higher population density means more taxes per km of road, so maintenance should actually happen more often when an area is more densely populated.

 

[TheEnoculator]

As of right now, the votes are 4-way tie among Gesink, Samu, JVDB and Valverde, and Evans is gaining ground big time on Wiggo. Should be interesting!

 

[Viking]

I think we're going to see Evans repeat. He's not going to be far behind Wiggo on the TTs, and he'll be better in the mountains. I expect he'll take time on him on the both mountaintop finishes and the descent finishes.

The rest of the top five, in no particular order:
Samuel Sanchez
Bradley Wiggins
Denis Menchov
Robert Gesink

I want to put Van Den Broeck in there instead of Gesink, but I look at Lotto-Belisol and see "sprint train for Greipel".

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The population density is almost the same as The netherlands and only a third of the Randstad. Yet both have better roads. It's just a funding issue.

Besides, a higher population density means more taxes per km of road, so maintenance should actually happen more often when an area is more densely populated.

Ah, lovely. Reversed logic. There are more people using roads, so roads decay faster. This is a fact. Not counting Brussels, the density in Flanders is 15% higher than Netherlands. Counting Brussels, that number rises to 33%. This is also a fact.
If your grid is overused, cutting off a portion of your grid for (constant) repairs is only going to cause problems elsewhere. Traffic jams & more strain on other routes. This is why the roads are in worse shape. It's a structural problem.

Your argument about the randstad... it was good for a laugh. Because obviously, in Flanders, population doesn't rise in or near our cities.

 

[taiwan]

How do people think Omega Pharma's riders are going to do? I was selecting a team for the TDF CQ game, and my estimation of the team increased.

Chavanel is TTing well, seems strong, although riding for a GC is a waste of time because he can't climb mountains.

Martin would be extremely extremely dangerous in a tour with 100km of chrono, but (again) for his climbing. Even top ten would be a very tall order. He has been able to get results in stage races recently though, and if a couple of key stages are ridden conservatively he might be able to limit the damage.

Leipheimer maybe underrated a bit seeing as he's been on the Tour podium before, and he's possibly the ultimate 'hang on for the TT' rider, the style which is in order this edition. Got third in the Tour de Suisse so he's fit. Only thing for me is that he looked good last year at this time, but simply didn't go that well at the Tour.

Peter Velits wasn't really considered a GC rider before his Vuelta podium in 2010. Possibly he still shouldn't be, but he'll be a protected rider I expect.

Also the team has been performing very well this year.

 

[theyoungest]

Leipheimer was certainly climbing very well in Suisse. The strange thing is that his TT seems to have suffered. But maybe he didn't work on that since his injury.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

How do people think Omega Pharma's riders are going to do? I was selecting a team for the TDF CQ game, and my estimation of the team increased.

Chavanel is TTing well, seems strong, although riding for a GC is a waste of time because he can't climb mountains.

Martin would be extremely extremely dangerous in a tour with 100km of chrono, but (again) for his climbing. Even top ten would be a very tall order. He has been able to get results in stage races recently though, and if a couple of key stages are ridden conservatively he might be able to limit the damage.

Leipheimer maybe underrated a bit seeing as he's been on the Tour podium before, and he's possibly the ultimate 'hang on for the TT' rider, the style which is in order this edition. Got third in the Tour de Suisse so he's fit. Only thing for me is that he looked good last year at this time, but simply didn't go that well at the Tour.

Peter Velits wasn't really considered a GC rider before his Vuelta podium in 2010. Possibly he still shouldn't be, but he'll be a protected rider I expect.

Also the team has been performing very well this year.

De Weert will be riding for Leipheimer, Martin and Velits. I find that a bit strange, because 2 out of those 3 are likely to be worse in the mountains. But anyway, they have him as superdomestique.

 

[classicomano]

Read 2 interviews today from Kruijswijk en Vanendert, and both are convinced that Wiggins cant be dropped in the mountains, depressing.

 

[taiwan]

De Weert will be riding for Leipheimer, Martin and Velits. I find that a bit strange, because 2 out of those 3 are likely to be worse in the mountains. But anyway, they have him as superdomestique.

IDK, he's one of those riders that goes well at the Tour if you're watching really carefully, but there wouldn't be a huge point in protecting him for a top 20 place. You're probably right about the 2/3 , but if Martin somehow gets off easy in the mountains, he should make big jumps up the GC in the TTs obviously.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

IDK, he's one of those riders that goes well at the Tour if you're watching really carefully, but there wouldn't be a huge point in protecting him for a top 20 place. You're probably right about the 2/3 , but if Martin somehow gets off easy in the mountains, he should make big jumps up the GC in the TTs obviously.

Sure... but big jumps where to? Top 30? Top 20? It's strange to see a guy having to give up a likely top 20 spot to help another guy get a less likely top 20 spot. They should either just make him Leipheimer's luitenant or give him a free role. I really don't see the point in him having to drag Tony Martin's fat *** over the mountains.

 

[Lexman]

Tony Martin said he only eyes the TT stages and not the GC

 

[taiwan]

OK forget it, I'm touting Tony too much.

 

[Lexman]

It's on thursday, around 6 pm live on all Eurosport channels.

Thanks for the info, will try to check it out

 

[theyoungest]

De Weert will be riding for Leipheimer, Martin and Velits. I find that a bit strange, because 2 out of those 3 are likely to be worse in the mountains. But anyway, they have him as superdomestique.

With De Weert you're almost sure he won't get beyond the top-20, top-15 on GC. I remember Laurens ten Dam saying he pulled for his ex-Rabo CT teammate on one of the climbs. No one will say Ten Dam is a legit Tour GC candidate.

Velits has the potential to do better, his Tour last year was marred by crashes.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Read 2 interviews today from Kruijswijk en Vanendert, and both are convinced that Wiggins cant be dropped in the mountains, depressing.

I think if Wiggins wins, there's a fair chance he would be dropping most everyone else in the mountains.

That is if he wins.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think if Wiggins wins, there's a fair chance he would be dropping most everyone else in the mountains.

That is if he wins.

Maybe if there was a climb like the Zoncolan or the Angliru they could put some serious time into Wiggins.
But this Tour? I can't see it happening. Maybe on a multi-mountain stage... And on some short finishes (he's not good on those), but on most TDF climbs, they are made for guys like Wiggins

 

[Bala Verde]

Read 2 interviews today from Kruijswijk en Vanendert, and both are convinced that Wiggins cant be dropped in the mountains, depressing.

I don't see it happening on:

MTF Stage 11: La Toussuire - avg 6% - 19.1km

MTF stage 16: Penultimate climb Peyresourde - avg 6.6% - 9.9km followed by Pyeragudes at 5.1% for 5K.

"MTF" stage 7 the La Planche des Belles Filles might create some opportunities, because it's quite steep, but also rather short; of which wiki says:

5,5 km à environ 9,5 % avec parfois des passages à près de 14 % notamment dans le premier kilomètre. Seul le dernier kilomètre à 7 % de pente est plus facile

I think the tactic should be to jump away at 2-3K before the ultimate MT, and try to gain an advantage in the descent. Stages 10 and 16 could offer Samu, who I'd rate highest after Evans and Wiggins, some interesting opportunities to kill it in the down hill. He can be explosive uphill (unlike Menchov; Gesink who are also not very good descenders and Nibali who is a descender, but seems to lack perhaps some explosiveness to jump?) and has a good ITT.

But then again, if everything goes according to plan, i.e. Samu can gain min: 10s and max: 30s on 3 MTFs (min total 30s and max total 1:30m), and he can gain another 30s-45s on 2 downhills (min total 1m max total 1:30m). He'll have 2:30m-3m in total, in a best case scenario.

Then there are 90-100K of ITT. I think even 3m for samu would be too little.

On a different note, RAB just said this:

Meanwhile, Rabobank manager Adri van Houwelingen has downplayed expectations ahead of the Tour. Although Gesink is joined by Bauke Mollema and Steven Kruijswijk in the Rabobank line-up, van Houwelingen said that the surfeit of time trialling in this year’s route means that the team’s ambitions are limited.

“Modern cycling shows that there are bigger differences made in the time trials than in the mountains,” he said. “Even in the toughest mountain stages, it is often a matter of seconds. There are some better time trial specialists in the race and based on this Tour route, it’s not realistic to talk about finishing on the podium.

“A place in the top three is not our aim. We’re going there for stage wins and the best possible overall finish. We think Gesink and Mollema can be in the top ten.”

Now I know the dutch, and RAB, always like to position themselves as underdogs and are happy to downplay expectations, partially because of the ridiculous overblown (media) attention they get in the Netherlands, but still.

Knowing this, why would they send Gesink, Mollema and Kruijswijk on a hopeless mission to France, whereas this year's giro was (again) a great opportunity to actually win something. Instead they sent a third rate sprinters ensemble to win a stage (with Cavendish there). I don't seem to understand their prioritization, or how to effectively use their strengths.

I don't see what stages they can win anyway. Gesink, Mollema and Kruijswijk are unlikely to feature in a breakaway, they don't have a strong enough sprint to finish it off in a small/elite group on a mountain, and I don't see anyone ride away from an elite group either, unless someone purposefully loses buckets of time. The aim is 2 riders in the top 10. Real winners there.

If the Rabobank allocated my money the way the cycling equipe does, I'd change banks. It seems effectiveness and making money are not lining up very well when the TDF enters the equation.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

With De Weert you're almost sure he won't get beyond the top-20, top-15 on GC. I remember Laurens ten Dam saying he pulled for his ex-Rabo CT teammate on one of the climbs. No one will say Ten Dam is a legit Tour GC candidate.

Velits has the potential to do better, his Tour last year was marred by crashes.

Not disagreeing on De Weert. Two years ago he was 18th iirc, without prep. Last year he was 13th with prep. So obviously not a contender. But let's just say i'm not exactly having much higher hopes for the other two.

 

[williamp78]

I think if Wiggins wins, there's a fair chance he would be dropping most everyone else in the mountains.

That is if he wins.

I 100% agree with this. Wiggins doesn't have a big kick but if he's on top form he could ride away from the others. People talk about him winning because of his time trial but if he wins i think it will be in the mountains.

Also, le tour must be soon; it has its own tab on the homepage!! (right beside that huge freakin triathlon tab!)

 

[happytramp]

Read 2 interviews today from Kruijswijk en Vanendert, and both are convinced that Wiggins cant be dropped in the mountains, depressing.

Hmmm, he lost 2+ minutes to Cobo in the mountains at last years Vuelta. Probably tougher climbs though. Who'd be a better climber Cobo or Evans?

 

[phanatic]

Read 2 interviews today from Kruijswijk en Vanendert, and both are convinced that Wiggins cant be dropped in the mountains, depressing.

Wiggins has looked extraordinarily strong, but I'd be surprised if Samu and Frank couldn't drop him.

 

[Pentacycle]

The Grand Colombier stage is a tough one, though. In the Dauphine the last 30 kms were nearly flat, so the contenders didn't consider an attack. But in the Tour there will be only 5 flat kms after the Colombier, plus the 3rd category Richemond.

Good descenders and climbers have a chance to drop Wiggins. The Grand Colombier is very irregular, with percentages ranging from 1 km @ 3% to 2 kms @ 10%. If the contenders consider attacking here, Wiggins should be in real trouble. Sky will probably have to work that stage, since it's right after the first TT, so in the end Wiggins will only have Froome left.

The most likely scenario remains ofc that none of the contenders will attack, although it's one of the few opportunities to get a big gap over Wiggins.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well lets review

In Algarve Wiggins was working for Porte so the time lost there doesn't say anything
In Paris Nice Wiggins lost 6 seconds to Lieuwe Westra on a finish that normally doesn't suit Wiggins (then again, Westra is new to this stuff too).
In Romandie there were no mountains or serious hills to reduce the group even. Let stand drop Wiggins
In the Dauphine Morzine stage only Quintana could ride away uphill from the Sky-led train. Wiggins didn't ride himself.
In the Dauphine's final stage Wiggins did lose some secnd on a finish that didn't suit him but then again his lead was more then sufficient and he didn't need to go 100% anyway.

My conclusions is that based on this season it's very hard to gauge what Wiggins can do on a real MTF or last hard mountain since there has been so few in the races he participated in.

 

[will10]

Well lets review

In Algarve Wiggins was working for Porte so the time lost there doesn't say anything
In Paris Nice Wiggins lost 6 seconds to Lieuwe Westra on a finish that normally doesn't suit Wiggins (then again, Westra is new to this stuff too).
In Romandie there were no mountains or serious hills to reduce the group even. Let stand drop Wiggins
In the Dauphine Morzine stage only Quintana could ride away uphill from the Sky-led train. Wiggins didn't ride himself.
In the Dauphine's final stage Wiggins did lose some secnd on a finish that didn't suit him but then again his lead was more then sufficient and he didn't need to go 100% anyway.

My conclusions is that based on this season it's very hard to gauge what Wiggins can do on a real MTF or last hard mountain since there has been so few in the races he participated in.

I agree with pretty much all of this. We haven't see him ride any multi col stages, thanks to rubbish Romandie and Dauphine routes (and some bad luck with the weather in Catalunya).