Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Fergoose]

Why do you say he can't do it on his own? And why does he need to be alone in order to put Wiggins and Evans in difficulty? A non-GC climber could work with him like Vanendert did for example. What he gained over Evans by attacking last year was more than a minute (disregarding what he lost on the Galibier stage) which suggests 60" is doable. There's nothing to say he's getting too old in terms of his results, so yes, assume he's not past his peak. Only his crash at the Dauphinee could have set him back, and nothing was broken - we'll just have to wait and see.

Last year's tour was particularly mountainous by its own standards, celebrating the history of the introduction of certain mountain passes. This one is decidedly flat in comparison and we are discussing the prospects for the 2012 edition. 60 seconds remains a huge amount of time for this edition.

Sanchez could team up with someone like a Vanendert I suppose, but such moves are far less likely to succeed in creating the necessary time gaps than jumping across to bridge a gap to someone who can outpace a peloton at full tilt and is willing to risk a step on the podium for a shot at glory (e.g. a Contador or Schleck rather than a more conservative VdB etc).

Link please.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-doesnt-want-captains-role-at-tour-de-france

Frank says he is in good form but can’t maintain it (into the Tour) as he isn’t a machine. Turns out it was Andersen saying Frank...

“ has competed at a high level ever since the start of Giro d'Italia in early May, so it's completely unrealistic to believe that he can compete among the best in the Tour over three weeks in July.”

Frank strongly indicates that his preparations have been far from optimum for the Tour. So my point stands that a comparison between the preparations of Frank & Bradley isn’t valid as Brads have been smooth and 100% geared towards maximising his ability to compete in the Tour.

...and that's that. It was a funny Vuelta, with outsiders on the podium and favourites underperforming. It did more to lower my opinion of the Vuelta than to raise my opinion of Cobo, Froome or Wiggins, but you can call it a credible GT podium if you want. If we see 2 Sky on the podium in a month you'll find me in the clinic.

I’m keeping everything crossed that Cobo (if he’s racing) & Froome have markedly more ordinary performances at the Tour in the hope that it is difficult for them to prepare for the Tour in the same way as the Vuelta. If they start ripping riders of the calibre of Wiggins, Nibali, Menchov & VdB again then I’ll join you in that other sub-forum pulling out my hair and gnashing my teeth.

And this Tour will also be harder than the 2009 for Wiggins if noone else, purely because he's going in as a major favourite, whereas in 2009 people probably just didn't believe what they were seeing.

Nonsense upon stilts!
This year Wiggins has an even flatter layout, two time trials and a team custom built over several years around him with the stated intention of helping him win the tour. He had none of that in 2009 (even though it was snooze inducingly uncombative). Plus in 2009 he lost to three riders who aren’t at this years race, two of which were engaging in activity that authorities are or have investigated as being suitable for loads of discussion in the clinic and resultant disciplinary action. Hopefully those he is competing with for a podium place this year won't have such a chequered past, present and future in the clinic (which could only be to Wiggin's advantage).

Compared to last year, this year's field is missing Andy Schleck and a sub-par Contador, but includes GT winners Nibali and Menchov as well as the riders including Wiggins who were affected by crashes last time. Add to that the fact that Taaamae's TT isn't actually that strong eg compared to Gesink this year and you have a good estimate of the Estonian's chances.

It's a fair point that Nibali & Menchov will likely pip Taaramae, but like I said, I'm not saying Taaramae will podium, only that he is someone who should be considered as a credible outside bet to make it.

For those hoping against hope for anyone but Wiggins (good to see Cadel getting some belated love) I think you’ve to put your hope in either a crash, or in Nibali, Sanchez & Evans teaming up to do two daring descents to eek out another 1+ minute. That is the most credible argument against Wiggins I can think of (along with doubts over his endurance in the third week). I think those two stages will be the must see ones that decide the overall victory, more so than the mountain top finishes.

 

[offbyone]

How does one corralate with the other?
Every other rider will have to avoid problems the same way as Wiggins has, as accentuated by the fact that you then go on to name Gesink

They don't, that is the point. You can't win the Tour de France on form alone.

 

[Froome19]

They don't, that is the point. You can't win the Tour de France on form alone.

Exactly but the poster seemed to imply Wiggins wouldnt get top10 due to possible mishaps. To predict that for a specific rider doesnt make logical sense seemingly.

 

[taiwan]

@fergoose my point about Schleck was that he didn't prepare for the Giro, he was a last minute callup. Then at that race he didn't ride strongly and retired before the hard stuff. I think he can possibly still perform at the Tour, particularly considering his record at the race.

re Sanchez he took 1:40 on 3 albeit more dificult MTFs last year. 60s on 2 I don't think is impossible. In addition he's considered one of the best descenders. I'll throw in the fact that a certain pal of his is in the race without credible GC ambitions. He is someone that can give Evans and Wiggins a fight.

The parcours is suited to Wiggins this year and he has more support. However he still had his team's support in 2009, he had no pressure on him going into the race, and his own DS stated that the race had been soft pedalled in the mountains.

Taaramae cannot podium in this Tour.

 

[movingtarget]

I'm going with Evans. I think Wigs has already peaked and will look great early, but fade in the third week.

I expect this to be a rather boring Tour. The two guys most likely to attack to spice things up aren't even there.

I am thinking the opposite. The amount of TT kms forces the hand of GC riders who are not great at the TT. Rolland, VDB, Nibali etc......Without Contador and Schleck I think it will be hard to control the race. Many riders will fancy their chances. I am not convinced that Sky will be strong for three weeks especially in the mountains. Porte, Rogers or Froome can have bad days as can Wiggins. Evans is the same but he seems to be able to judge his efforts better these days.

 

[hughmoore]

Long range weather forecast for Sunday and Monday is 60% chance of rain, could be carnage early?

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/BEXX0011



Hugh

 

[Pentacycle]

Let's face it, Belgium is the most dangerous country for cycling. Crashes have occured very often over the last couple of years, almost as soon as the peloton crossed the border.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb7sgzCN-Kk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXhPjzQS8ao

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW01VR69x4s

And of course every edition of the Scheldeprijs.

In Belgium it's not question if, but when big crashes will happen when it rains. They sure like cycling there considering the quality of their roads

 

[El Pistolero]

They sure whine a lot in Holland.

They always crash in GTs, whether it's in Belgium or not. Did you watch this year's Giro?

 

[theyoungest]

They sure whine a lot in Holland.

They always crash in GTs, whether it's in Belgium or not. Did you watch this year's Giro?

In the Giro the streets weren't littered with cyclists' bodies, like in the Tour 2010. Rain combined with the roads around Liege is just very bad news for the riders.

 

[Pentacycle]

In the Giro the crashes were the riders' fault, but in Wallonie the roads are always covered with oil, mud and are full of holes. The Greipel vs. Weylandt stage 3 years ago with 100 riders going down and trucks parked right along the route is something that only happens in Belgium. If I'm wrong, I'd like to see some similar crashes that happened in another country.

Btw does anyone know if they'll still ride over this road:

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Are you guys stupid or just playing dumb? Who draws the routes for the TDF? Do you seriously think there are no good roads in Belgium? Wallonia/Ardennes are a preferred region for motorcyclists, because there are so many nice roads/routes. Or do you think they like riding on bad asphalt and oil? Maybe point the finger towards the TDF organization for picking crappy roads.

Or maybe they deliberately pick these roads, for more of a "classic" feel? Or are you going to blame the bad state of the road in the PR-stage two years ago as well, instead of who ever decided to include that route?

 

[theyoungest]

Are you guys stupid or just playing dumb? Who draws the routes for the TDF? Do you seriously think there are no good roads in Belgium? Wallonia/Ardennes are a preferred region for motorcyclists, because there are so many nice roads. Or do you think they like riding on bad asphalt and oil? Maybe point the finger towards the TDF organization for picking crappy roads.

Or maybe they deliberately pick these roads, for more of a "classic" feel? Or are you going to blame the bad state of the PR-stage two years ago as well?

Roads in Belgium are just crappy, that's no news, I hope? Take your bicycle across the border and notice the difference

I don't think any contender is happy when they find out they're crossing Belgium again. Not even Jurgen VDB.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Roads in Belgium are just crappy, that's no news, I hope? Take your bicycle across the border and notice the difference

I don't think any contender is happy when they find out they're crossing Belgium again. Not even Jurgen VDB.

What does that have to do with what route the TDF decides to include? There are plenty of good roads. I think i've done quite a few kilometers per (motor- and) bike more than you, so take my word for it. But if they don't want to include them...

The biggest problem here is the state of bicyclepaths btw. They have a tendency to renew roads but keep old bicyclepaths to save a few bucks.

 

[Fergoose]

re Sanchez he took 1:40 on 3 albeit more dificult MTFs last year. 60s on 2 I don't think is impossible. In addition he's considered one of the best descenders. I'll throw in the fact that a certain pal of his is in the race without credible GC ambitions. He is someone that can give Evans and Wiggins a fight.

Who is that? I suppose a team Espania could do some damage if they had vested interests. Would there be any issue with Spanish riders on other teams being given approval to help out a Basque team though?

You are almost talking me into a Sanchez third and KotM repeat although I'm struggling to remember where he lost 5 minutes overall last year as he did okay in the ITT.

 

[El Pistolero]

In the Giro the streets weren't littered with cyclists' bodies, like in the Tour 2010. Rain combined with the roads around Liege is just very bad news for the riders.

Tour 2011 first stage.

 

[El Pistolero]

In the Giro the crashes were the riders' fault, but in Wallonie the roads are always covered with oil, mud and are full of holes. The Greipel vs. Weylandt stage 3 years ago with 100 riders going down and trucks parked right along the route is something that only happens in Belgium. If I'm wrong, I'd like to see some similar crashes that happened in another country.

Btw does anyone know if they'll still ride over this road:

You're kidding here right? That mostly happens in the Netherlands. Ever watched the Amstel Gold Race? In Belgium cars get towed away if they're on the route, in the Netherlands there is no such law to do that. Take your prejudice elsewhere please.

Ps: the roads in Wallonie are better than in Flanders.

 

[Dr.Sahl]

VDB will win

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I agree racing in the Netherlands is horrible with all the road furniture here and it gets worse every year. It's a policy of the government to replace crossroads with rotonds everywhere. Rotonds are safer, but not for racing cyclists..

I have to say Belgium is not much better. Wallonie might not have as much road furniture but the asphalt there is terrible. It always feels like you're having a falt imho..

Flanders is ok, obviously there's cobble roads here and there, but not much different from the netherlands. But also more road furniture in Flanders than in Wallonie. So also not ideal

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

What the **** is a rotond?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What the **** is a rotond?

roundabout in dutch rotonde in french rotond

somehow i always revert to rotond

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Good. For a minute I thought you were calling me fat.

I'll go to the gym tomorrow.

 

[Lexman]

anyone knows if the team presentation of the TDF is broadcasted on television ?

 

[Pentacycle]

anyone knows if the team presentation of the TDF is broadcasted on television ?

It's on thursday, around 6 pm live on all Eurosport channels.

 

[theyoungest]

You're kidding here right? That mostly happens in the Netherlands. Ever watched the Amstel Gold Race? In Belgium cars get towed away if they're on the route, in the Netherlands there is no such law to do that. Take your prejudice elsewhere please.

Ps: the roads in Wallonie are better than in Flanders.

Oh God, someone dared to say something about Belgium...

The Dutch have road furniture and non-cycling minded people, the Belgians have crappy roads. There you go, everyone happy.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

There are plenty of good secondary roads in the Ardennes, actually.