Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

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Who will win 2012 TdF v2.0

  • Alejandro Valverde

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Jun 22, 2009
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just looked at route again, in all honestly whilst it aint the best route there are plenty of chances to take time. Wiggins will have his work cut out forsure.

Stage 3: punchy riders like evans should try and take 10 or more seconds here.
Stage 7: short but steep finish; 6km @8.5%. Wiggins will struggle here imo. Of course this is the only highlight of the stage.
Stage 8: Another stage the climbers and brave men should utilize if they want to hurt wiggins. In fact I like this stage, up and down all day (seven categorized climbs) Short but steep final climb 4km @9-10% followed by short descent and 10km flat. Problem also that the follwoing stage is the tt.
Stage 10: If they ride hard on colombier this could be a good stage forsure.
Stage 11: Madeleine and Croix de fer (and mollard) will have the legs hurting, and La toussuire could make a big difference if the entire stage is raced properly (even if isn't too steep, it has some ok sections).
Stage 12: Ok this stage requires some balls if they're gonna take time, or some good collabaration. Mur de Péguére is pretty hard tho, especially those last few km. But yeh those 15-20km after the descent make it tough.
Stage 16: Very dangerous stage for wiggo, difficult last climb followed by downhill finish. This is a nice stage; Col d'Aubisque, Tourmalet and col d'aspin should mean some tired bodies on col de Peyresourde. Tough stage.
Stage 17: Last real chance for the climbers, and hard enough stage to make the difference imo. Especially if they race hard on Port de Bales.

But of course, it is the good ol' cliche that the riders have to make this hard. But the point is, the course isn't that easy that wiggins is a shoe in... plenty of chances.
 
May 13, 2011
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leipheimer. don't like the way the guy rides, but was starting to come into his form by attacking at the end of TdS, is very good in ITT and is smart enough to suck wheels for all but around 500 meters. Descents or USADA collateral damage could do him in. Also has had a good long time off, so will likely be fresh.

Ryder will be far too tired from the Giro. Frank will run into a truck going backwards, Wiggo will hopefully fail. Menchov and Nibabli don't seen to have it anymore. Cadel got his luck last year. Gesink doesn't seem to have form yet. UCI won't let Valverde win.
 
Feb 5, 2012
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If the climbers are smart, that being Sanchez, VDB, Gesink and Roland, they should "team up" in the mountains and attack nonstop to blow up Wiggins. No way can Sky keep all those guys in check as well as Evans, Schleck and Niabli every single stage.
 
Aug 13, 2010
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Unkown said:
If the climbers are smart, that being Sanchez, VDB, Gesink and Roland, they should "team up" in the mountains and attack nonstop to blow up Wiggins. No way can Sky keep all those guys in check as well as Evans, Schleck and Niabli every single stage.
That would be the way to do it but I fear that they will be more worried about cracking themselves in the process and losing time to the other climbers. Therefore, they will either all wait for each other or leave it so late that they will only gain a few seconds.

Frank Schleck might end up being the wild card here. He seems to have good form at the moment. He might think he has nothing to lose and has looked pretty aggressive in the TdS. No one is going to let him go so that might force attacks. I thought Andy might have done a similar thing but he would have attacked because he is stronger than everyone else.

I actually think this will end up being an exciting tour IF someone does go on the attack and put pressure on Wiggins and Evans. Evans has proven himself before so should be able to hang on. Wiggins, is still unknown given his current form and how he will actually perform under pressure.
 
Aug 18, 2011
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Now that Evans is not the clear favourite, the pressure is slightly of him. This usually helps him. So I vote for Evans with Wiggins a very close second.
 
Jan 11, 2010
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TheEnoculator said:
Actually you confirmed my suspicion. I suspected it was because he's a boring rider that people don't like him. Well, with only 3 summit finishes and 101 km of TT, do people seriously believe that somehow this Tour will be exciting? Even if Wiggins isn't in it, the other riders could only attack so much in the mountains. This is a TT specialist's Tour, it was designed to be that way.

As for the English speaking part, I didn't expect that. Because Cadel speaks English and people love him.
The English speaking part is nonsense, at least for me. I actually like Wiggins as a person, he's a character, and he has a good taste in music ;) And as a rider, I respect his style, when he's really on form he's impressive to watch, no movement at all in his upper body.

But when posts saying he maybe can't win the Tour for this or that reason get singled out as "hating", that's when I'm slightly worried the hype has got the better of some. I think it's fun to joke about the hype, since just two years ago if you had said on this forum "Wiggins will win the Tour" the general consensus would be you're an idiot, even among Anglophone posters. It was the time of "Wigans", remember? That's the way hype and anti-hype work.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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For me, I just recently took the view that Wiggins is being overrated, partly because there's a lot of him and Sky in the Anglophone media. Apart from that though, the racing style doesn't lend itself to popularity with fans, although it's clearly the best tactic for him.

But yeah the British/Australian/American culture of put the TT first has never done anything for me. I just don't have much interest in time trials. Maybe the 'hipster cycling fan' tag is fair.
 
Jul 2, 2011
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Still voted Wiggins.

As I keep saying there are too few mountain stages with the mountains at the right place. Either the finishing climb is too weak (La Toussiere). Or the last climb is too far from the finish line...

Only an injury or hunger knock or something can keep Wiggins from winning.

You're right, i had a look recently at the stages and saw only 3 MTF?? All the other mountain stages are not in advantage of the real climbers to put definitely (that is till the finish) time on Wiggins, mayeb they will be able to get rid of him but with a descent or lots of km till the finish this is not working...

Top 5 :
Wiggins
Evans
JVDB
Gesink
Nibali
 
Mar 15, 2009
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Sadly voted for Wiggins. Actually don't like him but just the way things are going and the recent nature of cycling and the loss of the best climbers means there is even less likelyhood of attacking riding = Best of the TT guys will win.
 
Jul 1, 2011
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taiwan said:
But yeah the British/Australian/American culture of put the TT first has never done anything for me. I just don't have much interest in time trials. Maybe the 'hipster cycling fan' tag is fair.

Ermm, I think Miguel Indurain wants a word about this. . .
 
May 27, 2010
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There are plently of stages to attack just because there are 3 MTF doesn't mean that the best in TTs will win.
Anyway most years there are only 3 MTFs.
Last year was an abnormality.
 
Mar 20, 2010
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Voting for Cadel....and a not boring race LOL. Yes Wiggans appears to be the Man this season but I just can't wrap my head around Bradley as a Tour winner.

Will be Rooting Big Time for Nibali to at least make the podium. However his recent form hasn't looked to good. But he will at least ride aggressively :)

JVDB2, Menchov, Gesink, Levi all have to be considered for that 3rd step. Samu if he wasn't injured also, but he is.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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Don't be late Pedro said:
As I think would Jacques Anquetil.

Sky, Garmin and HTC were/are all TT based teams. Even BMC has hired Phinney and Van Garderen. Apart from Wiggins there are Leipheimer, Rogers, Porte, CVV, Van Garderen and Evans until recently who are all GC riders of that type, if on different tiers.
 
May 27, 2010
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taiwan said:
Sky, Garmin and HTC were/are all TT based teams. Even BMC has hired Phinney and Van Garderen. Apart from Wiggins there are Leipheimer, Rogers, Porte, CVV, Van Garderen and Evans until recently who are all GC riders of that type, if on different tiers.

Rogers, Porte and TJVG aren't really GC riders for GTs at all.
Well at least not yet for TJVG and porte.
 
Jan 4, 2011
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Evans.

Wiggo and his boys have been so inch-perfect this year, things are set to fall apart come july. Paris-nice, romandie, dauphiné.. now le tour on top of that just sounds too good to be true. They showed their cards and the pressure is on them, obviously.

Meanwhile evans has probably never been more relaxed working towards le tour than this year.. He has both the biggest stage race and one day race under his belt already. Evans doesn't HAVE to, wiggo does. simple. Big advantage for cadel.

On the other hand, if Evans wants to win, he will have to do something he never did before. Attack. Relentless and from long distance. No steady pacing on galibier or attack 50m before the top and gain 8" on the descent, joux-plane-style :eek:
 
May 27, 2010
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Flamin said:
Evans.

Wiggo and his boys have been so inch-perfect this year, things are set to fall apart come july. Paris-nice, romandie, dauphiné.. now le tour on top of that just sounds too good to be true. They showed their cards and the pressure is on them, obviously.

Meanwhile evans has probably never been more relaxed working towards le tour than this year.. He has both the biggest stage race and one day race under his belt already. Evans doesn't HAVE to, wiggo does. simple. Big advantage for cadel.

On the other hand, if Evans wants to win, he will have to do something he never did before. Attack. Relentless and from long distance. No steady pacing on galibier or attack 50m before the top and gain 8" on the descent, joux-plane-style :eek:


Evans does not really have to do some big attack to gain time.
He can just follow the wheels of the best climbers or set a very hard pace to gain time.

Yup evans has been incredibly relaxed which is a great sign for him.
I'm not sure if the worlds is the biggest one day race though.
 
May 20, 2009
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dlwssonic said:
Yup evans has been incredibly relaxed which is a great sign for him.
I'm not sure if the worlds is the biggest one day race though.
You seem to be talking about Levi here...I have no doubt Evans will attack few times this year :)
 
May 27, 2010
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cineteq said:
You seem to be talking about Levi here...I have no doubt Evans will attack few times this year :)

Yeah but the way evans attacks in the mountains is like setting a very hard pace. As he is simply not explosive enough. And he is not very used to doing an attack in the mountains. it will be very much better if he can follow a sanchez, gesink or frank.
 
Jun 14, 2010
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dlwssonic said:
Evans does not really have to do some big attack to gain time.
He can just follow the wheels of the best climbers or set a very hard pace to gain time.

Yup evans has been incredibly relaxed which is a great sign for him.
I'm not sure if the worlds is the biggest one day race though.

worlds is definately the biggest annual one day race.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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dlwssonic said:
Rogers, Porte and TJVG aren't really GC riders for GTs at all.
Well at least not yet for TJVG and porte.

The only credible GT riders of that type are Wiggins, Menchov, Leipheimer, Kloeden. 2/4 I'll take and none are French or Spanish. My point about the TT based teams stands. I forgot RSNT.