Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Galic Ho]

He wasnt seen because he was made to be at the front for most of the Giro

You've already brought this up before. Porte was useless in the Giro as well. Nice try. Only his ITT was of any real use and his ability to drop back and pick up bottles. FFS be honest and tell us which team had domestiques setting pace? It was mostly Liquigas. Saxo had one or two guys with AC, who faded quickly. Richie was assumes to have that role at the start of the 2011 Giro, but didn't deliver in the race. Saxo alternated. For all but maybe one stage, Porte wasn't in the final two Saxo guys.

Once again, it's great to see objectivity from the posters on this forum. Want to know why people will cheer when Sky fail eyt again. You guys. Double standards left right and centre. Still going on about Frank being fatigued from peaking early, but not willing to extend the same logic to your boy Wiggins?

Once again, nobody on this forum who isn't a Sky fan or fanboy, has yet to see anyone other than Froome show anything that is adequate to match these supposed 'strategies' Sky will employ. He's the goods, that's it. As I said many times, Kloden and Nibali will tank Frank, Horner or Basso's climbing tempo over ANY Sky rider ANY day of the week.

Does it occur to you guys, especially what Waterloo posted regarding 40th that you are insulting certain riders with your ludicrous insinuations? Podium placers at the Tour who have results and capabilities Sky do not. Yeah if Sky improve, good on them...but till then, you're talking smack. We call it sledging Down Under. If you don't back it up, you'll cop a $h1t load of crap afterwards. I for one will laugh my **** off at you guys.

 

[guncha]

stage 16 is as good as a MTF.
Actually, the non-MTF mountain stages are all in all better then previous years.

Really? Comparison with TDF11
St.13 of TDF 11 Pau - Lourdes equals Colombier stage as Aubisque (16.4km at 7.1%) is located 42.5km before finish. 3rd cat. Richemond won't change anything. St.17 Gap - Pinerolo is easier than Pau - Luchon. However, final climb Pramartino (6.7km at 6%) is just slightly easier than Peyresourde (9.5km at 6.7%). IMHO, Pau - Luchon and Limoux - Foix cannot compensate lack of two high mountain MTF.

Comparison to TDF 10
St.9 Morzine - Maurienne is much better than Colombier stage - Madelaine is harder, closer to finish, two first cat. cols, second cat. col. St.15 Pamiers - Luchon is easier stage than Pau - Luchon. But final climb Bales (19.2% at 6.2%) is much more difficult than Peyresourde (9.5km at 6.7%). Overall, these two stages should be more deciesive to GC than TDF12 non-MTFs.

MTF stages of TDF 09 was worse than in TDF 12. However, Grand Bornard with Romme+Colombiere at the end is harder than Luchon. In terms of waste both are equal (Valserine, Annonay, Foix) vs (Saint-Girons, Tarbes, Bourg-Saint-Maurice).

TDF 08 had Lombare+Bonette. Peyresourde+Aspin was also closer to finish than Lers+Peregue
TDF 07 had excellent mountain stages with almost no waste... And so on...

Some of the multi-climb stages are nicely poised imo.

I agree. But there are too few of them, typical TDF has more of them..

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well, i'm wondering myself. His TDS ITT was much better than i anticipated... but on the other hand, the ITT competition wasn't stellar, and the stage was shorter and more hilly, which would suit him better i suppose than what's in store in the TDF. I don't know if that gives us much of a reference.

Did he do many long flat ITT's this year?

the 30km flat ITT in Cali. And he said in Suisse he had a bad feeling in the ITT and got tired near the end. Guess where he won most time? In the final part (which was flat too.)

 

[auscyclefan94]

the 30km flat ITT in Cali. And he said in Suisse he had a bad feeling in the ITT and got tired near the end. Guess where he won most time? In the final part (which was flat too.)

That's all well and good, but saying that he felt flat in the flat part of the TT is a bit of a worry for him considering both TDF time trial ITT's have a fair bit of flat in them. I really do believe that last year was Gesink's big chance so it is a shame he crashed out as I don't see him staying close to the top time trial riders nor be able to make the difference on the climb to his rivals. How much do you think he will lose in both ITT's, D_T?

 

[theyoungest]

That's all well and good, but saying that he felt flat in the flat part of the TT is a bit of a worry for him considering both TDF time trial ITT's have a fair bit of flat in them. I really do believe that last year was Gesink's big chance so it is a shame he crashed out as I don't see him staying close to the top time trial riders nor be able to make the difference on the climb to his rivals. How much do you think he will lose in both ITT's, D_T?

Gesink felt empty at the end, he didn't feel bad because it was flat (and, like Dekker_T said, the flat part is where he gained the most time)

Let me go out on a limb and say that he'll do (almost) as well as Cadel Evans. In the time trials, not on the climbs. Cadel Evans is hardly a specialist for flat time trials.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

That's all well and good, but saying that he felt flat in the flat part of the TT is a bit of a worry for him considering both TDF time trial ITT's have a fair bit of flat in them. I really do believe that last year was Gesink's big chance so it is a shame he crashed out as I don't see him staying close to the top time trial riders nor be able to make the difference on the climb to his rivals. How much do you think he will lose in both ITT's, D_T?

What part of "won time" in the "flat part" don't you understand? He was only 3 seconds slower than Cancellara in the part ffs. No matter how he feels that's good

I think he'll lose 1'15 to Wiggins in the first ITT and 1'30 in the 2nd

 

[PedalCastro]

Can Peter Velits do a top 10 in this Tour??

 

[auscyclefan94]

What part of "won time" in the "flat part" don't you understand? He was only 3 seconds slower than Cancellara in the part ffs. No matter how he feels that's good

I think he'll lose 1'15 to Wiggins in the first ITT and 1'30 in the 2nd

Sorry, I thought that was referring to ATOC tt, not Tour de Suisse.

Gesink felt empty at the end, he didn't feel bad because it was flat (and, like Dekker_T said, the flat part is where he gained the most time)

Let me go out on a limb and say that he'll do (almost) as well as Cadel Evans. In the time trials, not on the climbs. Cadel Evans is hardly a specialist for flat time trials.

Dream on...you guys crack me up with your silly Gesink prophecies.

 

[theyoungest]

Dream on...you guys crack me up with your silly Gesink prophecies.

I expect Evans to win the Tour, but really, when is the last time Evans did well in a flat time trial?

 

[Ferminal]

I expect Evans to win the Tour, but really, when is the last time Evans did well in a flat time trial?

Dauphine 2009?

 

[theyoungest]

Dauphine 2009?

Yeah. So that's quite a while ago. I just don't think it's his specialty, and I think that's where he should be really afraid of Wiggo. More so in the first TT than in the second, where it's more about recovery.

I expect Gesink to falter somewhere in the mountains, so I took that into my consideration, maybe he'll have some strength left for the final TT

 

[auscyclefan94]

I expect Evans to win the Tour, but really, when is the last time Evans did well in a flat time trial?

I assume you mean being in excess of 30km in distance?

I'll post you all of the flat, long ITT's that Evans has done in recent years.

8 2012 Critérium du Dauphiné, Stage 4 : Villié-Morgon - Bourg-en-Bresse I.T.T.
165 2010 Tour de France, Stage 19 : Bordeaux - Pauillac I.T.T.
10 2009 Vuelta a España, Stage 7 : Valencia I.T.T.
12 2009 Tour de France, Stage 18 : Annecy I.T.T.
2 2009 Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, Stage 4 : Bourg-lès-Valence - Valence I.T.T.

I don't think Prologues really count but there haven't been a hell of a lot of long, flat ITT's that Evans has competed in over the past few years.

 

[will10]

I think Cadel is going to have the same problem as everyone else with Wiggins - simply not knowing what he's capable of in the third week. I don't expect Bradley to take 1.40 out of Cadel in the final long ITT again, and I suspect Cadel thinks the same. But how much of a lead does he need for that last TT? Is 30 seconds enough? A minute? 1.30? No-one knows what Bradley will kick out on the penultimate day. I can see Cadel miscalculating like he did with Sastre in 08, but similarly I can see Bradley being overconfident of taking more time in the final TT than he'll be able to. Should make the third week interesting nonetheless.

 

[Ferminal]

I assume you mean being in excess of 30km in distance?

I'll post you all of the flat, long ITT's that Evans has done in recent years.

8 2012 Critérium du Dauphiné, Stage 4 : Villié-Morgon - Bourg-en-Bresse I.T.T.
165 2010 Tour de France, Stage 19 : Bordeaux - Pauillac I.T.T.
10 2009 Vuelta a España, Stage 7 : Valencia I.T.T.
12 2009 Tour de France, Stage 18 : Annecy I.T.T.
2 2009 Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, Stage 4 : Bourg-lès-Valence - Valence I.T.T.

I don't think Prologues really count but there haven't been a hell of a lot of long, flat ITT's that Evans has competed in over the past few years.

I think you have to to be worried by the amount of time Evans lost on the straight flat section of the Dauphine TT. It was very windy so that probably made some distance, but the final TT in the Tour also has several long straights. On a technical course or with climbs/descents the gap between Wiggins and Evans would be smaller.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

What part of "won time" in the "flat part" don't you understand? He was only 3 seconds slower than Cancellara in the part ffs. No matter how he feels that's good

I think he'll lose 1'15 to Wiggins in the first ITT and 1'30 in the 2nd

I expect him to lose more in the first , because I expect wiggo to be better in the first one and less good on the last one. Same with cuddles, I'm certain he will lose most of his tt time in the s9 time trial and little in the last, if anything.

As youngest mentioned that is more about recovery.

As for the gesink, well I'm not at all sure what To expect this tour. Cause of his build up and he broken femur it wouldn't surprise me at all if he failed badly.

 

[roundabout]

First of all I would like to apologize for being one of the sources of the confusion about the first ITT.

With that out of the way, let's get to the point. It is tougher than what I had assumed from the profile.

The first 28km are tough and it's well, close to 500 meters of climbing in total for the whole TT.

 

[auscyclefan94]

First of all I would like to apologize for being one of the sources of the confusion about the first ITT.

With that out of the way, let's get to the point. It is tougher than what I had assumed from the profile.

The first 28km are tough and it's well, close to 500 meters of climbing in total for the whole TT.

Yes you are right. Might I add that the climb up to the 1st time check is suppose to be rather steep. Plenty of other little hills in there as well. Lelangue has also said that the after doing reconnaissance with Evans on this course, he was surprised about how technical it was.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

But no ACF we are not delusional. We're just saying we have more faith in Gesinks ITT than his climbing ;-) Which is not weird considering his results.

 

[Krebs cycle]

I think Cadel is going to have the same problem as everyone else with Wiggins - simply not knowing what he's capable of in the third week. I don't expect Bradley to take 1.40 out of Cadel in the final long ITT again, and I suspect Cadel thinks the same. But how much of a lead does he need for that last TT? Is 30 seconds enough? A minute? 1.30? No-one knows what Bradley will kick out on the penultimate day. I can see Cadel miscalculating like he did with Sastre in 08, but similarly I can see Bradley being overconfident of taking more time in the final TT than he'll be able to. Should make the third week interesting nonetheless.

Evans was injured in 2008 and he had all sorts of problems with his team both on and off the road, so I don't really think that was a "miscalculation". He simply wasn't recovered well enough to produce a good TT. Whereas last year, we saw him take 1:35 out of Cancellara and was only 7 sec down on the Martin coming shortly after some epic days in the mountains. I agree Wiggins remains a mystery and could blow everyone away on the last TT, but a lot can happen in 3weeks so it's not a given. I think this is what will make this years tour so exciting!

 

[goggalor]

Voted for Wiggles, but I'd very much like to see Evans repeat. Wouldn't mind if Wiggins won though, he's a quality rider. Mainly I'm hoping that some of the outsiders like Samu, Valverde, Gesink and Nibali can spice things up on the medium and high mountain stages so we don't have a straight up duel, but a fight between several riders with different qualities.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

the 30km flat ITT in Cali. And he said in Suisse he had a bad feeling in the ITT and got tired near the end. Guess where he won most time? In the final part (which was flat too.)

What part of "won time" in the "flat part" don't you understand? He was only 3 seconds slower than Cancellara in the part ffs. No matter how he feels that's good

I think he'll lose 1'15 to Wiggins in the first ITT and 1'30 in the 2nd

I think you're being overly optimistic here. 1.30 to Wiggins in the second ITT? His results may have been good in Suisse (more hilly, weaker ITT opponents, shorter) but he still finished behind Monfort, which is by no means a bad ITT'er, pretty decent actually and has always been better than Gesink at it, but not someone who would finish within 2 minutes of Wiggins in a long flat ITT. Tony f'ing Martin lost half a minute, and you think Gesink will only lose a minute to him?

The California ITT was barely half as long as the TDF ITT will be and he lost 40 seconds to Zabrisky.

I hope you're right but i'm not seeing any results that tell me he's going to lose merely 1.30 on a long flat ITT to Wiggins.

1.15 in the first one, i can see.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think you are overrating Wiggins recuperation. His ITT aren't as strong after 3 weeks of racing. That's why I think only 1'30

Evans might actually have the stronger 2nd ITT

 

[Pentacycle]

The problem is that the Suisse TT is a bad example. There was a big hill right from the start, which doesn't suit Gesink at all. He is really a flat TT'er who loves to ride the same gear for one hour. Monfort is more of a punchy rider, which explains why he climbed faster than Gesink. It's also very strange that the guy who has the best TT results of all Dutch riders doesn't ride the nationals . I'd hate to see Clement taking it, instead of Gesink showing the colors in the Tour. He'd take the title very easily imo. If Gesink recovers well in the first week, I could see him ending within a minute of Wiggins in the first TT.

 

[gerundium]

The problem is that the Suisse TT is a bad example. There was a big hill right from the start, which doesn't suit Gesink at all. He is really a flat TT'er who loves to ride the same gear for one hour. Monfort is more of a punchy rider, which explains why he climbed faster than Gesink. It's also very strange that the guy who has the best TT results of all Dutch riders doesn't ride the nationals . I'd hate to see Clement taking it, instead of Gesink showing the colors in the Tour. He'd take the title very easily imo. If Gesink recovers well in the first week, I could see him ending within a minute of Wiggins in the first TT.

Wilco Kelderman. just saying.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The problem is that the Suisse TT is a bad example. There was a big hill right from the start, which doesn't suit Gesink at all. He is really a flat TT'er who loves to ride the same gear for one hour. Monfort is more of a punchy rider, which explains why he climbed faster than Gesink. It's also very strange that the guy who has the best TT results of all Dutch riders doesn't ride the nationals . I'd hate to see Clement taking it, instead of Gesink showing the colors in the Tour. He'd take the title very easily imo. If Gesink recovers well in the first week, I could see him ending within a minute of Wiggins in the first TT.

Gesink also says his femur (the pin) hurts a lot when climbing is at the start of the stage, when he is still "cold". I fear this tour he might struggle at the start of some of those multi-climb stages and expel a bit too much energy.