Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Dekker_Tifosi]

you forgot imho...

And maybe you should check who actually voted for Wiggins

I was one of them, but not because of Wiggins not-so-aweseome climbing.

I just think the course lacks enough opportunities for the climbers to actually get enough time on Wiggins. Sure he probably isn't even the 6th best climber and willl suffer. But there's not enough suffering in this Tour where he loses so much time.. Even on Evans.

And the few MTF's that are there are a joke like La Toussiere... thats a wiggins climb

 

[Swede1]

Good enough to get third in a poor field, not to win a GT.

Off course he hadn't had an ideal preparation, crashing out of the TDF and all, but if he get's outclimbed by Cobo, Froome and Mollema he's in for a hell when he has to face Schleck, Samu, JVDB, Gesink, Nibali etc. all looking to gain time in the mountains. They will kill Wiggins in the mountains if he doesn't climb a whole lot better than last Vuelta.

Again, if they don't race too hard in the mountains Wiggins has a chance... but by no means has he showed anything in the mountains ever to make him a TDF contender. He only deserves to be mentioned because of the unbalanced amount of TT.

Yeah I mean he's lucky he didn't have to face JVDB at the Vuelta...

 

[Ferminal]

But if they did use it they would get a 20 km flat run in to Bellegarde sur Valserine after the descent, which I think we can all agree isn't ideal.

Col de Richemond seems like a pretty fair battleground between a frontgroup and some chasers.

Artemare - GC - Gigniez - Biche - Richemond - BsV

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Yeah I mean he's lucky he didn't have to face JVDB at the Vuelta...

Yeah, or Nibali - would have been crushed otherwise.

 

[Ferminal]

Yeah, or Nibali - would have been crushed otherwise.

Does this mean I can use the Vuelta in my justifications not to rate Nibali?

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Yeah I mean he's lucky he didn't have to face JVDB at the Vuelta...

JVDB lost over 3 minutes in the TT to Wiggins, which is more or less the ammount of time JVDB was behind Wiggins in the Vuelta.

JVDB is a better climber than Wiggins, just sayin'

Sure Wiggins'll probably be higher in the GC, but JVDB is one of many riders in this TDF who are better climbers and will be attacking Wiggins.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

JVB is one of a select group of riders who are treated as serious contenders and actually have less pedigree and less palmares than Wiggins.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Yeah, or Nibali - would have been crushed otherwise.

Clearly Vuelta 2011 was an anomaly in this regard; Nibali is a better climber than Wiggins. At least Nibali is a proven GT contender, unlike Wiggins, who never managed to get higher than 3rd, being beaten by Cobo and his own domestique.

At least Nibali has climbed this season, unlike Wiggins, so we know Nibali is climbing pretty well this season. While Wiggins was too busy winning crappy one week races without any serious mountains in them, while being outclimbed by Lieuwe Westra.

 

[cineteq]

3 form riders, wiggins, sanchez, nibali.
Tour suits wiggins more than the other 2 hence he's got loads of votes.

Evans, Menchov and Schleck would surely be outdoing him, if they'd shown something this season. But the first 2 have had health problems. The 3rd has been off, even further off than most expect for a one month wonder.

Few reminders:
- Wiggins hasn't shown GT mentality or performance against the best to date
- You forgot Gesink
- Nibali will have 2 teams working for him, the green and blue train
- Evans will be fit

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

JVB is one of a select group of riders who are treated as serious contenders and actually have less pedigree and less palmares than Wiggins.

Just saying he's a better climber than Wiggins, not that JVDB is a better GC contender.

 

[Catwhoorg]

JVDB lost over 3 minutes in the TT to Wiggins, which is more or less the ammount of time JVDB was behind Wiggins in the Vuelta.

JVDB is a better climber than Wiggins, just sayin'

Sure Wiggins'll probably be higher in the GC, but JVDB is one of many riders in this TDF who are better climbers and will be attacking Wiggins.

JVDB lost 2:01 in the ITT, gained 24 secs in the TTT (if you recall Sky had a nightmare TTT) and finished 3:06 down on Wiggins.

He lost 1:29 in non-TT stages, a little over half of that on Angrilu. (56 secs)

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

JVDB lost 2:01 in the ITT, gained 24 secs in the TTT (if you recall Sky had a nightmare TTT) and finished 3:06 down on Wiggins.

He lost 1:29 in non-TT stages, a little over half of that on Angrilu. (56 secs)

okay, my bad, sorry for screwing up the information.

My point still stands though, that JVDB is a better climber than Wiggins when in shape, take a look at the Tour where JVDB finished 5th.

 

[CasperVg]

okay, my bad, sorry for screwing up the information.

My point still stands though, that JVDB is a better climber than Wiggins when in shape, take a look at the Tour where JVDB finished 5th.

Yeah but Wiggins was in fairly bad shape and appears to have grown a lot on both the ITT and the climbing since then. JVDB is a great climber, but doesn't seem motivated to train his time trialing enough; so in this tour I personally don't count him as a contender for a win (repeating his Top 5 is possible though). Last year's tour was a better chance, but unfortunately he fell before any serious riding was done

 

[El Pistolero]

Not motivated to train his time trialing? He's obsessed with his time trial bike this season.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah I mean he's lucky he didn't have to face JVDB at the Vuelta...

His injuries were slightly worse than those of Wiggins
He also had less time to recover from them.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah but Wiggins was in fairly bad shape and appears to have grown a lot on both the ITT and the climbing since then. JVDB is a great climber, but doesn't seem motivated to train his time trialing enough; so in this tour I personally don't count him as a contender for a win (repeating his Top 5 is possible though). Last year's tour was a better chance, but unfortunately he fell before any serious riding was done

VDB seems pretty serious about his TT training, and about his training in general... in fact I think there's quite a few more talented GC riders out there, but VDB makes up for it by hard work. And he already did quite well in the Algarve TT, so I guess we'll see in the Dauphine if he's really improved.

It's a combination of hype and the overwhelming number of UK forum members - i suggested that wiggins percentage be multiplied by 0.3 to reflect accuracy

Yeah, the Wiggo hype is becoming a bit ridiculous... yes, he's had great form so far this year, but what climbing has he really done? And I'm not convinced he's able to time trial as well as people think he will, in the Tour, and certainly in the final week of the Tour. There it's more about recovery. Look at the Tour where he got 4th, his final TT there wasn't bad, but certainly not great either.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Not motivated to train his time trialing? He's obsessed with his time trial bike this season.

But apart from his Algarve ITT he didn't show much for it yet. Although in PV he was too afraid to take risks.
Then again JvdB has always been a peaker rather than a guy that's good all season long. He'll be there in the Tour if he doesn't fall.

 

[El Pistolero]

VDB seems pretty serious about his TT training, and about his training in general... in fact I think there's quite a few more talented GC riders out there, but VDB makes up for it by hard work. And he already did quite well in the Algarve TT, so I guess we'll see in the Dauphine if he's really improved.

Yeah, I think exactly the same way about him.

 

[El Pistolero]

But apart from his Algarve ITT he didn't show much for it yet. Although in PV he was too afraid to take risks.
Then again JvdB has always been a peaker rather than a guy that's good all season long. He'll be there in the Tour if he doesn't fall.

The only time trials he has done are Algarve and Pais Vasco(which isn't an indicator of anything).

 

[Gloin22]

The only time trials he has done are Algarve and Pais Vasco(which isn't an indicator of anything).

Tour of Romandie where he disappoitned a little

 

[theyoungest]

Tour of Romandie where he disappoitned a little

Yeah, in Romandie he was really disappointing. So disappointing in fact, he didn't even appear in the results

 

[Magnus]

Artemare - GC - Gigniez - Biche - Richemond - BsV

But then they would be wasting Grand Colombier. Now it's set up to be the center of attention.

 

[roundabout]

Going up the direct route up GC as Ferminal suggested would not be wasting the climb.

 

[Magnus]

Do you seriously believe anybody would attack at Grand Colombier with Biche still to come?

 

[JimPanzen]

It's almost scary how focused Wiggins seems to be. Big favorite imo.