Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Maaaaaaaarten]

He's still no superman, and if a team behind is able to set a steady solid pace he's going to struggle to get a sufficient gap.

He lost over 2 minutes to the favourites in the last 10km on Galibier.

As if Sky domestiques are going to get Andy back on a real climb. Yeah, after an impressive effort in which Schleck also had to ride through the valley alone - which no doubt tired Andy more than it tired his chasers because they wern't alone - Evans was able to ride off 2 mins. Sky domestiques or even Wiggins himself certainly arn't able to do that.

 

[airstream]

I wonder how strong Porte and Rogers will be because Froome is likely to be impressive and ride for himself. If these two won't be able to stay until there are 20-30 best climbers, that's foolish to tell about them as mountain domestiques. The Grand Colombier will answer this question.

 

[Frosty]

First of all, im not talking about overall victory or podium, but what do people think of Westra's chances?

He's never done anything on GC in a grand tour before, but maybe this year's course, his Paris-Nice performance and the performance of de Gendt in the Giro could persuade him to try and hang on? Potential to just sneak into the top 10? Good candidate for the surprise high-finisher?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

First of all, im not talking about overall victory or podium, but what do people think of Westra's chances?

He's never done anything on GC in a grand tour before, but maybe this year's course, his Paris-Nice performance and the performance of de Gendt in the Giro could persuade him to try and hang on? Potential to just sneak into the top 10? Good candidate for the surprise high-finisher?

Let's first wait and see how Westra does on an actual climb. So far he's done well in hilly stages + Mende, which is more of a medium mountain stage than a real mountain.

We'll know more after the Dauphine I hope. He's a complete wildcard to me. I'm also not sure how Westra handles 3 weeks of racing.

 

[cycladianpirate]

Aren't you looking at this the wrong way round?

Isn't the first question, in this edition of the Tour, to ask how much time the likes of Evans & Wiggins (and, I still hope, Menchov) can put into the others on the TTs and then ask whether that can be made up by the others in the Mountains?

 

[Gubby Allen]

When the odds come out for the first stage, assuming no bookies have them yet, who'll be among the favourites? Gilbert I'm assuming, would Sagan or Hushovd have a chance, or be up there?

 

[Gloin22]

EBH v Sagan v Gilbert v Freire I'd say.

 

[ferryman]

When the odds come out for the first stage, assuming no bookies have them yet, who'll be among the favourites? Gilbert I'm assuming, would Sagan or Hushovd have a chance, or be up there?

Valverde

 

[Pippo_San]

I don't understand all this love for Menchov. There was only one year during these last few when he was flying, and that was 2009 (at least the first half).
Other than that he has been quite consistent as always, but never really a threat for the top spot.

Not to mention he is 34 years old. Age has caught on Basso, and I believe it will also catch Evans and Menchov.
A top 5 is more believable.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I don't understand all this love for Menchov. There was only one year during these last few when he was flying, and that was 2009 (at least the first half).
Other than that he has been quite consistent as always, but never really a threat for the top spot.

Not to mention he is 34 years old. Age has caught on Basso, and I believe it will also catch Evans and Menchov.
A top 5 is more believable.

I saw tons of posts referring to Evans's age last time around, and yet he won. Also Menchov would have won the Tour if there wasn't the stupid stage neutralization by Cancellara in 2010.

 

[Afrank]

I don't understand all this love for Menchov. There was only one year during these last few when he was flying, and that was 2009 (at least the first half).
Other than that he has been quite consistent as always, but never really a threat for the top spot.

Not to mention he is 34 years old. Age has caught on Basso, and I believe it will also catch Evans and Menchov.
A top 5 is more believable.

Evans won the tour when he was 34, and wiggins is only 2 years younger 32 and so far seems to be the favorite. It seems for some riders like Evans and Wiggins age doesn't effect them as much, but for other riders like Basso it does.
I do agree with you, I don't think Menchov will win the tour. I think he can manage a top 5, maybe a podium.

 

[karlboss]

I don't understand all this love for Menchov. There was only one year during these last few when he was flying, and that was 2009 (at least the first half).
Other than that he has been quite consistent as always, but never really a threat for the top spot.

Not to mention he is 34 years old. Age has caught on Basso, and I believe it will also catch Evans and Menchov.
A top 5 is more believable.

It caught Horner and Evans too, hang on a second, they are just coming off their best ever years. Age is in the mind, if the motivation is there the body will keep pace. Physically I don't think it is a factor until at least 40.
Menchov has votes as last time he or anyone rode a 50+ km time trial he smoked it. Last year in the Vuelta he marked Froome up Angliru proving he can still climb, and he has won 3 GTs. If he finished top 10 at Romandie he would be the favourite. Unless Evans was next to him in the top 10.

 

[The Hitch]

I. Also Menchov would have won the Tour if there wasn't the stupid stage neutralization by Cancellara in 2010.

lol wut.
10 characters

 

[dlwssonic]

I don't know why people are saying wiggins is just as a good climber as evans.
Evans is a better climber.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Absolutely, Wiggins never proved to be cabable to go with the three or five best climbers in the world, which would be necessary to win the Tour.
To be fair, i would say, we haven't seen him at his best during a GT in the high mountains, which could change this year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

lol wut.

He has a point. Menchov was the only one of the podium that was in the front group.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Everybody could see how superior Schleck and Contador were climbing.
They were able to put time into anyone, whenever the road went uphill.
Take Ax-3-Domaines as an example.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Everybody could see how superior Schleck and Contador were climbing.
They were able to put time into anyone, whenever the road went uphill.
Take Ax-3-Domaines as an example.

Cycling has changed , though. The Tour of 2012 isn't the Tour pf 2010 anymore.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Yes, but were talking about that very year.

 

[airstream]

Cycling has changed , though. The Tour of 2012 isn't the Tour pf 2010 anymore.

True. The differrence between Andy and the rest is going to be even bigger.


In short, I offer to stop discussion due to absolute obviousness of the winner.

 

[Ferminal]

Cycling has changed , though. The Tour of 2012 isn't the Tour pf 2010 anymore.

Yep, it's 1997.

 

[Lanark]

As if Sky domestiques are going to get Andy back on a real climb. Yeah, after an impressive effort in which Schleck also had to ride through the valley alone - which no doubt tired Andy more than it tired his chasers because they wern't alone - Evans was able to ride off 2 mins. Sky domestiques or even Wiggins himself certainly arn't able to do that.

And don't forget what a massive effort that was by Evans. Schleck was great that day, but Evans was majestic as well, crushing guys like Contador and Sanchez just by setting a steady pace. Wiggins has never shown the climbing pedigree anywhere close to that.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

And don't forget what a massive effort that was by Evans. Schleck was great that day, but Evans was majestic as well, crushing guys like Contador and Sanchez just by setting a steady pace. Wiggins has never shown the climbing pedigree anywhere close to that.

That is exactly my point. I just can't see Wiggo doing that, he never climbed like that at all. As long as there isn't too much valley Sky isn't going to do a better job at getting Schleck back, then what Evans did last year on the Galibier.

Also Andy will get company when he attacks. When they enter the mountains a lot of climbers will be way back al ready, so they'll enter the high mountain stages looking to gain time. I can see Evans or Menchov (who knows if he manages to get into shape though) limiting their losses when Schleck and the other climbers go race hard in the mountains, Wiggo however....

Of course all this depends on the assumption that Andy and the other climbers will have enough balls and motivation to ride the couple of decent mountain stages very aggressively. If they don't Wiggo has a good change at winning the TDF.

 

[UlleGigo]

Wiggins will not podium. I'll refer back to this in time. So mind the flaming chaps.

 

[Havetts]

Sanchez dropping at the Galibier might not have 100% because of Evans, rather then Sanchez puncture just when evans accelerated at the front of the group so he had to make a massive effort to just get back to the back of the group, let alone follow Evans' pace after 2 weeks of attacking by Sanchez.