Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[TheEnoculator]

It's called diplomacy. No director sportif says his rider would win and wouldn't promise anything. I just believe in Andy and his higher integral level as a GT rider compared to Evans and Wiggins. One global victim, the whole season, couldn't be accidental. He did a great training work and we will see fruits of this work in the Tour.

One is being diplomatic by saying, "Andy's working at his own pace.", like what Wiggins said. Certainly not guaranteeing wins. No one is stupid enough to do that. But Andersen and Bruyneel are actually baffled by Andy's showing and have no explanation for it. That speaks volume.

Andy is a great competitor and I'm sure he'll be at the best as he can be in 3 weeks. And he'll fight until the end. But if Bruyneel is still putting Andy as the GC rider rather than Frank for political reasons, that could be costly.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

***** - Wiggins, Evans
****
***
**
* - Menchov, Sanchez, Gesink, JVDB, Frandy, Nibali, Froome

Right now, I make Wiggins and Evans too close to call. Wiggins is in astonishing form, as are his team, but there are some chinks there for Evans to try to exploit - the descending (and there's a few finishes in the Tour where he could take a some seconds) the short, steep finishes (again, there's a few where he could take some time) and the fact that there are still doubts about Wiggins's constitution in the 3rd week of a GT and his ability on the multiple HC climb stages.

I can't really make a decent case for anybody other than those 2.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

***** - Wiggins, Evans
****
***
**
* - Menchov, Sanchez, Gesink, JVDB, Frandy, Nibali, Froome

Right now, I make Wiggins and Evans too close to call. Wiggins is in astonishing form, as are his team, but there are some chinks there for Evans to try to exploit - the descending (and there's a few finishes in the Tour where he could take a some seconds) the short, steep finishes (again, there's a few where he could take some time) and the fact that there are still doubts about Wiggins's constitution in the 3rd week of a GT and his ability on the multiple HC climb stages.

I can't really make a decent case for anybody other than those 2.

What are your criteria? Gesink has just gone on altitude training and only did one actual stage in the TDS so far, yet you've already rated him? Froome & JvdB are nowhere near as crappy as Menchov and Nibali as far as we can tell, both in ITT as uphill, yet you all rate them the same...? Actually their ITT was in the same league as Evans and uphill they didn't seem to be worse, yet they get 4 stars less. Not meaning to criticize, but you seem somewhat biased.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Who here still thinks Andy has a legitimate shot at winning the Tour? I would like to hear what your reasons are for thinking so when both Bruyneel and Andersen are casting doubts.

Yep.

I wrote it after the prologue and repeat it here again. Andy hasn't raced a single day in six weeks before the start of the Dauphiné. He was there to train and test himself on saturday.
Unfortunately he crashed during the TT and that forced him to abandon.
Surely it's a little blow to his prepartions, but I still expect him to shine in July. Would be fun, if people underestimate him at that time.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yep.

I wrote it after the prologue and repeat it here again. Andy hasn't raced a single day in six weeks before the start of the Dauphiné. He was there to train and test himself on saturday.

Unfortunately he crashed during the TT and that forced him to abandon.

Surely it's a little blow to his prepartions, but I still expect him to shine in July. Would be fun, if people underestimate him at that time.

I wouldn't put it past Bruyneel or Andy to have this whole charade set up, just to throw off a couple of guys, in order to get more wiggle room during the TDF (he's gonna need all the wiggle room he can get).

 

[Marco Pantani]

I wouldn't put it past Bruyneel or Andy to have this whole charade set up, just to throw off a couple of guys, in order to get more wiggle room during the TDF (he's gonna need all the wiggle room he can get).

When Andersen "attacked" Andy in the media I started to think about a plan might be going on. Why would Andersen attack his advocate Andy.
Plus, Andy looked to be in shape, I haven't seen any overweight.

 

[TheEnoculator]

I wouldn't put it past Bruyneel or Andy to have this whole charade set up, just to throw off a couple of guys, in order to get more wiggle room during the TDF (he's gonna need all the wiggle room he can get).

I hope it's all an act. To have so few race days sure ain't a good thing for your sharpness.

 

[Frosty]

I just think that the way the course is set up, Wiggins, Evans and Menchov will get such an advantage from the TTs that the others wont have enough climbing stages to take the time back - one or two of them may suffer in the mountains but i dont believe that they all will. I dont think Nibali is good enough to tt close to those three's times and i cant see him being the best of the climbers. Sanchez is a bit better than Nibali but i dont see him making up enough time. We didnt see how VDB and Gesink had progressed at last year's tour - maybe they stand the best chance of making a big enough leap to threaten the big three, dont think they will have it though. The Schlecks and Rolland will do well in the mountains but just lose too much in the TTs

I make Evans the slight favourite for the reason that he won last year and this course is quite well suited to him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I hope it's all an act. To have so few race days sure ain't a good thing for your sharpness.

We'll never know i guess, but the way Andy was dropped in the first actual stage in the Dauphiné, looking behind, as if he was looking for Bruyneel and asking "am i doing it right?". However, i doubt the crash in the ITT was an act, and i don't think it really was intended for him to abandon the race on saturday... though it would give him a serious alibi.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I don't think it's possible to win any good race with no form whatsoever. Let alone the Tour de France. What is Andy's best result this season ?

Even if he gets himself in good shape he won't have done the competitive top level racing required to see out 3 weeks at a high level. A bit like Basso in the Giro, you get found out eventually and even Basso had a much better level of form than Andy

 

[dlwssonic]

What are your criteria? Gesink has just gone on altitude training and only did one actual stage in the TDS so far, yet you've already rated him? Froome & JvdB are nowhere near as crappy as Menchov and Nibali as far as we can tell, both in ITT as uphill, yet you all rate them the same...? Actually their ITT was in the same league as Evans and uphill they didn't seem to be worse, yet they get 4 stars less. Not meaning to criticize, but you seem somewhat biased.

There you are again comparing everything against dauphine.
Things will be very different from the dauphine a month from now.

 

[Red Rick]

I think Evans is gonna win it, and i'd really cheer for him if he had to beat Wiggins to do it. Never thought i'd cheer for Cuddles one day, but i guess i'm even a bigger Wiggins hater. At first i'll start cheering for Nibali and Sammy though.

 

[cineteq]

I think Evans is gonna win it, and i'd really cheer for him if he had to beat Wiggins to do it. Never thought i'd cheer for Cuddles one day, but i guess i'm even a bigger Wiggins hater. At first i'll start cheering for Nibali and Sammy though.

Attaboy! Wait a second, shouldn't you cheer for Gesink? Or even Westra?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

There you are again comparing everything against dauphine.
Things will be very different from the dauphine a month from now.

You are getting on my f'ing nerves man. Where am i comparing everything against Dauphiné? I'm actually asking HIM what HIS criteria are. Please don't respond to my posts anymore with your BS BMC fanboyism. He just put stars on peoples heads without any further explanation. If you really think Wiggins and Evans are "4 stars ahead" of the entire competition you are in for a rude awakening.

PS: and i wonder what has changed your mind all of a sudden, that it's ok to give Wiggins 5 stars, as you previously thought he didn't stand a chance?

 

[karlboss]

You are getting on my f'ing nerves man. Where am i comparing everything against Dauphiné? I'm actually asking HIM what HIS criteria are. Please don't respond to my posts anymore with your BS BMC fanboyism. He just put stars on peoples heads without any further explanation. If you really think Wiggins and Evans are "4 stars ahead" of the entire competition you are in for a rude awakening.

I saw it, my gap wouldn't have been quite so big, but...some of the riders have run on the board in GTs but showed nothing at Dauphine, others have no results better than top 5 at a GT but showed a little more, I can see how they'd be rated about the same.

I'm also thinking that Sky and Wiggins have set the bench mark, much has Contador has in the past. I think the other contenders will base their tactics from that. First Wiggins will need to be separated from his team, then dropped hard in the mountains. The question is who will try to make it happen? Evans is looking good, but I don't think he needs to attack. Who else has the form and team to try?

 

[bobbins]

I want Wiggins to win the Tour riding for Garmin.

Sky deserve to lose for being such corporate *****s and for extracting all the passion out of cycling. I'm also sick of all the 'cycling experts' that they have brought to the sport who have been following the sport for 2 years and are suddenly experts.

 

[Lexman]

I had a quick look at the stages and only found 3 MTF (la planche, la toussuire, peyragudes).

To me this doesn't look like Andy will be able to take enough time back or have enough advance befopre the last ITT.

Wiggins and Evans will limt their losses on the MTF.

Evans proved he can hold on for 3 weeks, can Wiggins as well?

Evans might be handicapped at BMC because Gilbert surely will want to win the stage in the Ardennes and might himself in yellow ... so his team will have to work ...

Can Porte, Rogers keep up for 3 weeks?

 

[dlwssonic]

I had a quick look at the stages and only found 3 MTF (la planche, la toussuire, peyragudes).

To me this doesn't look like Andy will be able to take enough time back or have enough advance befopre the last ITT.

Wiggins and Evans will limt their losses on the MTF.

Evans proved he can hold on for 3 weeks, can Wiggins as well?

Evans might be handicapped at BMC because Gilbert surely will want to win the stage in the Ardennes and might himself in yellow ... so his team will have to work ...

Can Porte, Rogers keep up for 3 weeks?

I'm not sure if Gilbert will even go for a stage win at all.
BMC might work for cadel only.
But I don't think Gilbert will be in yellow, he will lose sufficient time in the prologue and Canc, Martin or Wiggo won't lose enough time on that final hill.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert can barely help Evans even if he would be in top shape lol. He's not going to be Evans personal domestique for 3 weeks if he has the legs. If he doesn't have the legs it doesn't matter either way as he won't win a stage and won't be of much help to Evans.

If he has the legs he'll go for the win in the Ardennes.

 

[Havetts]

Plus Gilbert never really has been a teamplayer anyway..

 

[airstream]

Plus Gilbert never really has been a teamplayer anyway..

Mur-de-Bretagne?

 

[Havetts]

It was a nice job for Evans, not sure JVDB was so happy with it. Or Greipel during that Tour anyway..

 

[El Pistolero]

It was a nice job for Evans, not sure JVDB was so happy with it. Or Greipel during that Tour anyway..

The only reason Greipel won a stage at the Tour is because Gilbert killed the HTC train and Cav.

 

[dlwssonic]

Plus Gilbert never really has been a teamplayer anyway..

He was working for the team in the dauphine.
And I remember he helped jelle vandenert in the stage to luz ardiden.
But yes he gave cadel a nice leadout on bretagne

I think he might help out BMC a bit on the flats.

 

[Panda Claws]

Gilbert is an ego yes as are most of the top riders.
His reputation of absolutely awful teamplayer is a bit undeserved though.