Who will win 2015 Milan - San Remo?

[postmanhat]

Re: Re:

[quote="



That's probably where we disagree. I think Sky has a pretty good classics team for most of the classics, but I don't think MSR is one that suits their riders very much (when it comes to having an actual winner...they have a great team of support riders.) That's why IMO Swift is their best chance...I think he'll get them a top 10, and as a team that's the best they can hope for from any of their riders. We shall see soon.

Yeah you're probably right - the team is only as good as the leader. If Sky and others can force a selection on the final climb so that Swift finds himself in a select group with, for example, Sagan, Canc and Matthews, he might have half a chance. Tough ask though to leave most of the really fast guys behind.

From what I remember of last year, Kristoff had a textbook leadout from two team-mates. Swift started about 10 places back and had to dodge round to get third, beating Sagan, Lobato, Cavendish etc. Maybe it was a one-off, or maybe he handles the climbs and distance better than most other sprinters?

With the finish so close to The Poggio, it could come down to descending skills, so he might lose out there.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

[quote="



That's probably where we disagree. I think Sky has a pretty good classics team for most of the classics, but I don't think MSR is one that suits their riders very much (when it comes to having an actual winner...they have a great team of support riders.) That's why IMO Swift is their best chance...I think he'll get them a top 10, and as a team that's the best they can hope for from any of their riders. We shall see soon.

Yeah you're probably right - the team is only as good as the leader. If Sky and others can force a selection on the final climb so that Swift finds himself in a select group with, for example, Sagan, Canc and Matthews, he might have half a chance. Tough ask though to leave most of the really fast guys behind.

From what I remember of last year, Kristoff had a textbook leadout from two team-mates. Swift started about 10 places back and had to dodge round to get third, beating Sagan, Lobato, Cavendish etc. Maybe it was a one-off, or maybe he handles the climbs and distance better than most other sprinters?

With the finish so close to The Poggio, it could come down to descending skills, so he might lose out there.

Kristoff had only Paolini, and he dropped him in the last km, there was no leadout, and Swift had Puccio, from what I remember. Swift hold Cancellara's wheel, and he was around 7-8 position coming to a sprint, and also Lobato was little blocked by Cancellara, allowing Swift to get third

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Kristoff had only Paolini, and he dropped him in the last km, there was no leadout, and Swift had Puccio, from what I remember. Swift hold Cancellara's wheel, and he was around 7-8 position coming to a sprint, and also Lobato was little blocked by Cancellara, allowing Swift to get third

Kristoff did not drop Paolini. Paolini led under the 1km banner, Gilbert took up the front after the jink in the road and pretty much led out Kristoff (with GVA making an attack down the right) until Cav and Modolo jumped too early, Kristoff took Modolo's wheel and beat their fading legs with a well timed kick.

But don't take my word for it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUQ20CtbtFg

 

[postmanhat]

Re: Re:

Yeah you're probably right - the team is only as good as the leader. If Sky and others can force a selection on the final climb so that Swift finds himself in a select group with, for example, Sagan, Canc and Matthews, he might have half a chance. Tough ask though to leave most of the really fast guys behind.[/quote]

From what I remember of last year, Kristoff had a textbook leadout from two team-mates. Swift started about 10 places back and had to dodge round to get third, beating Sagan, Lobato, Cavendish etc. Maybe it was a one-off, or maybe he handles the climbs and distance better than most other sprinters?

With the finish so close to The Poggio, it could come down to descending skills, so he might lose out there.[/quote]

Kristoff had only Paolini, and he dropped him in the last km, there was no leadout, and Swift had Puccio, from what I remember. Swift hold Cancellara's wheel, and he was around 7-8 position coming to a sprint, and also Lobato was little blocked by Cancellara, allowing Swift to get third[/quote]

I meant to put a caveat that I could be wrong! Will have to watch it again to jog my memory. Cheers

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

[Mr.White[/url]"]
Kristoff had only Paolini, and he dropped him in the last km, there was no leadout, and Swift had Puccio, from what I remember. Swift hold Cancellara's wheel, and he was around 7-8 position coming to a sprint, and also Lobato was little blocked by Cancellara, allowing Swift to get third

Kristoff did not drop Paolini. Paolini led under the 1km banner, Gilbert took up the front after the jink in the road and pretty much led out Kristoff (with GVA making an attack down the right) until Cav and Modolo jumped too early, Kristoff took Modolo's wheel and beat their fading legs with a well timed kick.

But don't take my word for it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUQ20CtbtFg[/quote]

That's what I meant, Paolini dropped Kristoff after a 1km banner

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

That's what I meant, Paolini dropped Kristoff after a 1km banner

Ah ok.

This two url limit seems to be screwing with everyone...

 

[the delgados]

If I were a betting man looking for a long-shot, I'd throw a few bucks down on Navardauskas (sp?).
He's a fantastic rider who always seems to fly under the radar. Also, his team has had a poor start to the season, so they should be extra motivated. All they need to do is protect him for 300 km while letting everyone else do all the work, then unleash him with 200 metres to go in a bunch sprint. Done and done.

 

[eljimberino]

I've been tipping Navardauskas a few times, but he never quite gets there. An outsider would be a great result.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Can honestly say that i really have no clue who will win today.

Usually i have a feeling about certain riders, but today there is a case to be made for about a dozen riders.
Just hope its a decent break with strong attacks coming from the Cipressa onwards. Hopefully it will be a small group coming to the line rather than a reduced bunch sprint.

Hopefully a Bardiani suicide attack will bear fruition on the Poggio

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

[quote="



That's probably where we disagree. I think Sky has a pretty good classics team for most of the classics, but I don't think MSR is one that suits their riders very much (when it comes to having an actual winner...they have a great team of support riders.) That's why IMO Swift is their best chance...I think he'll get them a top 10, and as a team that's the best they can hope for from any of their riders. We shall see soon.

Yeah you're probably right - the team is only as good as the leader. If Sky and others can force a selection on the final climb so that Swift finds himself in a select group with, for example, Sagan, Canc and Matthews, he might have half a chance. Tough ask though to leave most of the really fast guys behind.

From what I remember of last year, Kristoff had a textbook leadout from two team-mates. Swift started about 10 places back and had to dodge round to get third, beating Sagan, Lobato, Cavendish etc. Maybe it was a one-off, or maybe he handles the climbs and distance better than most other sprinters?

With the finish so close to The Poggio, it could come down to descending skills, so he might lose out there.

Basically Swift just followed Fabians wheel in the sprint. That's what brought him up to 3rd last year, but Fabian (and Swift) started his sprint way back

 

[The Chicken]

I'm thinking the time is ripe for Degenkolb this year. I don't know why, I'm just feeling it

Dat feel.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

I can't see the poll results and even though I can vote repeatedly, it doesn't seem to actually register my vote. Anyone else have this problem?

anyway, I'm thinking degenkolb

I marvel at my incredible powers of prediction. Should bet the house next time

 

[wayahead]

Re:

Kristoff obvious choice. Sagan podium. Cancellara out of top 3 (and yes I know...). But I deeply hope for more interesting race than supposed sprintfest.

so close, so close...