Who will win 2015 Milan - San Remo?

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Who will win 2015 Milano - San Remo?

  • Greg Van Avermaet

    Votes: 10 4.8%
  • John Degenkolb

    Votes: 15 7.2%
  • Mark Cavendish

    Votes: 18 8.6%
  • Fabian Cancellara

    Votes: 11 5.3%
  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 50 23.9%
  • Zdenek Stybar

    Votes: 7 3.3%
  • Arnaud Demare

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • Juan Jose Lobato

    Votes: 17 8.1%
  • Alexander Kristoff

    Votes: 48 23.0%
  • Other ...

    Votes: 31 14.8%

  • Total voters
    209
  • Poll closed .
Mar 13, 2015
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Re:

Netserk said:
He's not even in the top-5 for the last three years. I don't get how anyone can place him above (Canc), Boonen, Gerrans, Purito and Martin.

He is easily the second best, behind Cancellara. Way better than any of those mentioned
 
Since his comeback in WT one-day races and WCs:

Wins:
Flèche Wallonne '14
San Sebastian '14

Podiums (2nd and 3rd places):
WCRR '12
Amstel '13
Liège '13
San Sebastian '13
WCRR '13
Lombardia '13
Liège '14
WCRR '14
Lombardia '14

Top-10s (4th-10th):
Flèche Wallonne '13
Amstel '14


Gerrans:

Wins:
Milano - Sanremo '12
Québec '12
Liège '14
Québec '14
Montréal '14

Podiums:
San Sebastian '12
Amstel '13
Amstel '14
Hamburg '14
WCRR '14

Top-10s:
Montréal '12
Liège '13



It really is only if you think that a podium is as much worth as a victory that there can be any doubt (11 wins and podiums vs. 10).
 
Besides, your previous list doesn't include several one days in which Valverde won or podiumed, Strade Bianche for one. Gerrans has exactly 0 podiums from any other one days. Bala has a bunch. I'm going with Valverde.
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Netserk said:
Since his comeback in WT one-day races and WCs:

Wins:
Flèche Wallonne '14
San Sebastian '14

Podiums (2nd and 3rd places):
WCRR '12
Amstel '13
Liège '13
San Sebastian '13
WCRR '13
Lombardia '13
Liège '14
WCRR '14
Lombardia '14

Top-10s (4th-10th):
Flèche Wallonne '13
Amstel '14


Gerrans:

Wins:
Milano - Sanremo '12
Québec '12
Liège '14
Québec '14
Montréal '14

Podiums:
San Sebastian '12
Amstel '13
Amstel '14
Hamburg '14
WCRR '14

Top-10s:
Montréal '12
Liège '13



It really is only if you think that a podium is as much worth as a victory that there can be any doubt (11 wins and podiums vs. 10).

Cancellara:

Wins:
E3 Harelbeke '13
Ronde Van Vlaanderen '13
Paris-Roubaix '13
Ronde Van Vlaanderen '13

Podiums:
Milan-San Remo '12
Milan-San Remo '13
Milan-San Remo '14
Paris-Roubaix '14

Top 10's:
WCRR '13


Boonen:

Wins:
E3 Harelbeke '12
Gent-Wevelgem '12
Ronde Van Vlaanderen '12
Paris-Roubaix '12

Podiums:
none

Top 10's:
Hamburg '12
E3 Harelbeke '13
Gent-Wevelgem '14
Ronde Van Vlaanderen '14
Paris-Roubaix '14


Purito:

Wins:
Fleche Wallonne '12
Lombardia '12
Lombardia '13

Podiums:
Liege-Bastogne-Liege '13
WCRR '13

Top 10's:
San Sebastian '12
Fleche Wallonne '13
Lombardia '14


Dan Martin:

Wins:
Liege '13
Lombardia '14

Podiums:
Fleche Wallonne '14

Top 10's:
Liege '12
Fleche Wallonne '12
Fleche Wallonne '13
Lombardia '13


So by your logic the best is by some margin Simon Gerrans with 5 wins + 5 podiums. That means something is wrong with your calculation, cause he can't be the best one-day rider by any means. The catch is in Canadian races and Hamburg, they are not even close to other races, they are WT races, but the quality of those races, their history, and the most important of all, the field in those races are way below others. So they can not be counted as major one-day races. All other races gather strongest field in that moment in the world, and they are the biggest one-day races. Exception could only be E3, which is in some way a preparation race, although WT and with pretty strong field. If we reject Canadian races and Hamburg, we would get clearer picture who is the best out of those mentioned, and that certainly isn't Gerrans. I would say Cancellara is no.1, Valverde 2, and others are pretty close to each other for third spot.
 
According to 'my logic' Gerrans is the best? Can you quote the relevant part? I think it's quite obvious that monuments are above other WT races. I find it laughable how some value podiums so much. Does anyone really think a podium or three more will make a difference for Valverde's palmeres? Nope. Wins are what big riders are measured in. Podiums, if in big amounts, can be mentioned, but only as something secondary. Does anyone remember (all of) Bettini's podiums? Does anyone measure his achievements with that? No.
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Netserk said:
According to 'my logic' Gerrans is the best? Can you quote the relevant part? I think it's quite obvious that monuments are above other WT races. I find it laughable how some value podiums so much. Does anyone really think a podium or three more will make a difference for Valverde's palmeres? Nope. Wins are what big riders are measured in. Podiums, if in big amounts, can be mentioned, but only as something secondary. Does anyone remember (all of) Bettini's podiums? Does anyone measure his achievements with that? No.

Of course they are, although I consider WCRR as the most important one-day race. And not all WT races are at the same level. GW, Amstel, Fleche and San Sebastian are bigger than others. Also Het Volk, Strade Bianche and Paris-Tours are in the same league with Canadian races, Hamburg, Plouay, etc.

Exactly, podiums in big amounts. Valverde has 9 in last three years, Boonen 0, Purito 2, Gerrans 4 and Martin 1. They must be mentioned! They make some difference
 
Aug 4, 2011
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Valverde Just sit back in the peloton and then boom.

That's what I would like to happen but I have a sneaky feeling that another rider could win.
 
Combination of Thomas, Stannard, Eisel & Fenn all supporting Swift who has MSR as main target this season looks pretty tasty going by what each of those riders has done already this season. I think Degenkolb might just have this though.
 
Re:

Carstenbf said:
Viviani ftw. Blue and black train to keep things together for the sprint, and he and Guardini shall pip the rest of the contenders!

(wishful thinking perhaps, but my fantasy team would approve:))

Is he racing it? I don't see him in the start lists
 
Re:

Jspear said:
Plenty of sprinters here. Teams will definitely be trying to make it a bunch finish.

1. Kristoff
2. Cavendish
3. Cancellara
4. Sagan
5. Degenkolb
6. Swift
7. Matthews
8. Demare
9. Haussler
10.Bouhanni

Well, sagan is definately not a sprinter anymore and I don't think he could best all of these sprinters at one time. Certainly, after tough race, he could beat some of them, but not all of them. If sagan is to succeed, Saxo Tinkoff will want drop(or tire) as much sprinters as possible by the time they reach top of Cipressa, so they would have to work like *** to get back to the bottom of Poggio. This way and with the fact that the finish is back on via roma, action on poggio would make sense and with good descending even more. I think e.g. Sagan has more chance winning in the 2013 way than 2014 edition finish, even he would have to chase everything by himself. In 2013, he basically chased chava, phiney, stannard and paolini himself in the descent from poggio, and had he known who ciolek is he would have one even though he catched some attacks himself too in last kms.

As far for winner, I don't have concrete name, but ettix has so many options, that if they play their cards wisely they should definately win it, however this seems not to be in the capacities. So I'm going with kristoff, he has it to beat cav and others in the sprint, and also probably has to stay on anybodys wheel if fireworks are happening on poggio.
 
Re:

Bushman said:
It's a pity that strong riders like Thomas and Stannard are wasted working for Swift. There is no way in hell he can win the race.

Yep, they'd be better off giving Thomas and/or Stannard a free role, in case something unexpected happens on the Poggio. As it is, they are probably just going to chase down hard anyone that tries to get away (no doubt successfully), only for Swift to get completely outclassed in the sprint
 
Re:

samhocking said:
Combination of Thomas, Stannard, Eisel & Fenn all supporting Swift who has MSR as main target this season looks pretty tasty going by what each of those riders has done already this season. I think Degenkolb might just have this though.

Exactly

A lot of riders have made this their goal. A sprinter will win unless someone gets a good gap over the top and can sustain it but I dunno how with at least 5/6 teams that will keep the tempo strong.

These are the riders that have made this their goal this year.

Kristoff
Matthews
Swift
Greipel
Degenkolb
Bonifazio thinks his chances are good
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Bushman said:
It's a pity that strong riders like Thomas and Stannard are wasted working for Swift. There is no way in hell he can win the race.

Yep, they'd be better off giving Thomas and/or Stannard a free role, in case something unexpected happens on the Poggio. As it is, they are probably just going to chase down hard anyone that tries to get away (no doubt successfully), only for Swift to get completely outclassed in the sprint
Seems like everyone has already forgotten that Nordhaug was 1st over Poggio last year...
 
Stannard & Thomas have their targets this season and Swift supports them, so now Swift has his target and they support him, seems the team is put before the star riders and I like that.
Also, I would say if you can hit the podium in your first MSR with only Kristoff & Cancellera standing above you, you probably have a justified reason for putting yourself forward as leader again.
 
Feb 26, 2015
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Re:

Bushman said:
It's a pity that strong riders like Thomas and Stannard are wasted working for Swift. There is no way in hell he can win the race.

There s no way for Stannard and Thomas either