Who will win Amstel Gold Race?

[Fzotrlool]

Valverde has won Fleche and Liege, but never Amstel. I think would he like to add it to his list of victories.

Kwiatkowski is another challenger. Like Valverde, he has already won a couple of one-day races this year.

Outsiders: Nico Roche, Dani Moreno, Jacob Fuglsang, Ryder Hesjedal, LS Nordhaug, Simon Gerrans.

 

[rainman]

ABV, anyone but Voeckler.

 

[Shardi]

ABV, anyone but Voeckler.

+1

How has Gerrans been doing lately? Quite good I feel. If a group of 5 break away
on the Cauberg, he will be trailing in the back of it and contend the sprint. He, Valverde and Kwiatkovski have a pretty good sprint.. Better than Gilbert.

Think we will see the usual Gilbert getaway plan on the final slope. Question is, will he have ppl on his wheel, and if not - how close are they.

 

[jens_attacks]

1.frank schleck
2.valverde
3.rebellin

 

[Jspear]

1.frank schleck
2.valverde
3.rebellin

You must be one loyal fan to name him as winner.

 

[trevim]

1.frank schleck
2.valverde
3.rebellin

I like you [I don't care for Valverde or Rebellin though.]
I would love to see Frank perform and win again 8 years after his nice win. We'll see but I think even a top10 is off reach after his heavy early season schedule and the lack of results in Basque Country.
Vamos Frank!

 

[Tornado Tom]

Maxim Iglinsky

 

[TourOfTexas]

Stybar ftw

 

[manafana]

had vote of j rod but that would well change as thats a mad mans guess.

 

[VeloHuman]

had vote of j rod but that would well change as thats a mad mans guess.

If Kreuziger could win with a late escape last year, I don't see why it's so outlandish for Purito to win this race.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Hasn't the course changed since Frank won?

Kreuziger only won because he was allowed into the break. And only won from the break because no one thought he could do it. Once bitten twice shy, he will not be allowed to get away this year.

Purito - no chance to get into a break. Its a flat finish and the last climb is not long/steep enough to get a huge margin.

Best chance for most is a breakaway. Otherwise, small group at the finish won by quickest sprinter.

Hence why I vote for Kwia. And a few quid at 15/2

 

[The Hitch]

If Kreuziger could win with a late escape last year, I don't see why it's so outlandish for Purito to win this race.

Kreuziger at this point last year was little more than a bust who never lived up to his potential and didn't seem likely to do much but domestique and scrape top 10s in stage races. He was given a lot more leeway than the 2 time defending Lombardi and Uci world ranking champion, can hope for.

 

[greenedge]

I voted for Gerrans- his sprint this year has been quite good If not Kwiatowski.
I don't think Valverde or Gilbert can gain enough on the Cauberg to hold off the rest, but they could...

 

[Netserk]

If Kreuziger could win with a late escape last year, I don't see why it's so outlandish for Purito to win this race.

1) I don't think he'll content, only just race it, as he is more focused on the next two races.

2) He won't attack before the last Cauberg. Yes it'd be wiser if he wants to win, but he won't.

 

[karlboss]

If Gilbert can go on the Cauberg and win, so can Purito, though it is unlikely. I think you'd struggle to go past Valverde, Kwiatkowski, and Betancur. I'd like to see Gilbert back to his best, in the absence of top form Boonen and Cancellara we've not seen enough men kick dogs this year. (Do other nations use that phrase)

 

[Netserk]

If Gilbert can go on the Cauberg and win, so can Purito, though it is unlikely. I think you'd struggle to go past Valverde, Kwiatkowski, and Betancur. I'd like to see Gilbert back to his best, in the absence of top form Boonen and Cancellara we've not seen enough men kick dogs this year. (Do other nations use that phrase)

No .

 

[karlboss]

No .

Is there anyone who can win solo after flying up the Cauberg?

 

[Netserk]

Sure, but it's ludicrous to compare Gilbert and Purito on the flat after Cauberg. I also don't think Purito will be able to win Omloop with a long solo attack. They are quite different riders. I also don't think a rider like Martin would be able to hold a gap from the top of Cauberg to the finish.

Valverde would have a chance, especially if it wasn't solo, but together with one other rider. Kwiatkowski too, perhaps he could do it alone like Gilbert did in '12. If a rider like Costa somehow had a gap over Cauberg (don't see that happen) he could probably as well.

 

[rghysens]

... I also don't think a rider like Martin would be able to hold a gap from the top of Cauberg to the finish...

If anyone can do it, it's Tony.

 

[Shardi]

If anyone can do it, it's Tony.

I'm pretty sure he doesn't mean TONY Martin...

Did Gerrans drop out of PV due to illness, or saving himself for the upcoming races btw?

 

[Netserk]

If anyone can do it, it's Tony.

The only gap Tony will have on the top of Cauberg is that up to the group ahead of him

 

[karlboss]

Sure, but it's ludicrous to compare Gilbert and Purito on the flat after Cauberg. I also don't think Purito will be able to win Omloop with a long solo attack. They are quite different riders. I also don't think a rider like Martin would be able to hold a gap from the top of Cauberg to the finish.

Valverde would have a chance, especially if it wasn't solo, but together with one other rider. Kwiatkowski too, perhaps he could do it alone like Gilbert did in '12. If a rider like Costa somehow had a gap over Cauberg (don't see that happen) he could probably as well.

You're right Gilbert is stronger on the flat, but I'd have thought Lombardia 2012 shows Rodriguez holding off a group to be at least possible if still improbable. He held 7 seconds at the top of the final climb 10km to go to the finish, and won by 9 over a group of 11. Also Terpstra opening up a gap over the final km of roubaix shows what happens when riders hesitate and look at each other. It happens sometimes.
Admittedly Gilbert's gap opened over primarily sprinters who can climb a bit and Amstel is more likely to be contested by puncheurs who can sprint a bit. I still give him a chance.

 

[karlboss]

I'm pretty sure he doesn't mean TONY Martin...

Did Gerrans drop out of PV due to illness, or saving himself for the upcoming races btw?

Due to illness previous to the race, it was a preplanned withdrawl.

 

[Netserk]

You're right Gilbert is stronger on the flat, but I'd have thought Lombardia 2012 shows Rodriguez holding off a group to be at least possible if still improbable. He held 7 seconds at the top of the final climb 10km to go to the finish, and won by 9 over a group of 11. Also Terpstra opening up a gap over the final km of roubaix shows what happens when riders hesitate and look at each other. It happens sometimes.
Admittedly Gilbert's gap opened over primarily sprinters who can climb a bit and Amstel is more likely to be contested by puncheurs who can sprint a bit. I still give him a chance.

There's a big difference between staying away on a descent and staying away on a plateau. Purito is an excellent descender, but a bad rouleur.

On a finish like this a rider as explosive and strong uphill (who is also an excellent descender) as Purito will easily stay away. Strength on the flat means close to nothing. It's not comparable to the new Amstel finish at all.

 

[karlboss]

There's a big difference between staying away on a descent and staying away on a plateau. Purito is an excellent descender, but a bad rouleur.

On a finish like this a rider as explosive and strong uphill (who is also an excellent descender) as Purito will easily stay away. Strength on the flat means close to nothing. It's not comparable to the new Amstel finish at all.

So he stayed away on the decent...what about the flat 3km after? We both know to stay away in these situations it is the group behind that decides whether the move sticks or not. I don't see any reason it is ludicrous to consider it happening. Yes I agree these finshes are very different, but the point still holds, Rodriguez stayed away on a flat finish and a longer one, than he'll have to on Sunday.
I'm curious to see if Katusha will have Moreno or Rodriguez leadout the other up the Cauberg, or have one attack and the other mark Valverde and wait for the sprint. If one of them doesn't try they might as well not turn up.