Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think Movistar (Q/Valv) still hold all the cards. Nobody really close to that with Nibali and Q out. And Simon does not yet look like to have the Giro form.

I'd watch Kelderman though, he only had 22 race days so is fresher than the entire GC contending field. And we've seen in the past freshness can really count in the Vuelta (unless you're Froome )

 

[Angliru]

Re:

His hairline is still miles better than Lebron James. But yeah, his hair isn't that pretty.

I'd have to say they're about even. Lebron's has gone through a transformation from seeming to be receding to now having a little patch of thinner hair in the front that doesn't look natural. Valverde's at least just looks like a natural thinning going on. Mine is doing the same only not as bad. My barber has a habit of reminding me just to mess with me. Maybe I need a new barber!! No tip for him!

 

[spalco]

So, first rest day. Other than the ones who voted for Porte or Nibali, any change of opinon?

Quintana, Yates, Valverde, MAL still looking good I guess. Uran maybe in with a better shot than people thought before the start?

 

[Lexman]

I guess from what I've see it must between MAL, Nairo and third spot for Kelderman, Sprinter jersey for Valverde....

 

[The Chicken]

Re:

So, first rest day. Other than the ones who voted for Porte or Nibali, any change of opinon?

Quintana, Yates, Valverde, MAL still looking good I guess. Uran maybe in with a better shot than people thought before the start?

And still you do not mention Ion. LOL what else does the guy need to do? OK he lost a few metres in the run-in yesterday but to me he has looked one of the strongest so far. I believe he has a decent TT too. I still think he can win this race. I know he is unproven going for GC over 3 weeks, but then so was Roglic.

I will keep beating the Ion Izagirre drum till he gives me reason not to!

 

[Laplaz]

A colombian. The one who wins in Covadonga i think.

 

[Blanco]

It's still wide open. At least 5-6 men has a shot. Quintana, Lopez, Yates, Izagirre, Uran, Valverde, Kelderman. In that order...

 

[Robert5091]

Stages 13 & 14 (Friday & Saturdays) will shake the GC standings up too. If Kelderman has good legs, he could make some moves.

 

[Rollthedice]

Quintana still top favorite. If Yates learned something about managing a three week race and if he can replicate most of his form in Giro he has a good shot to win. Third candidate would be MAL for me, managed to stay out of trouble until now.

 

[Bolder]

I admit I'm surprised that Kwiat isn't in a podium spot. I also thought Hart or De la Cruz would be in Top 10. Not like Sky to be out of both GC and stage hunting. I wonder if they're rethinking their decision to have Bernal do the Tour and not the Vuelta, although he definitely played a big role in Thomas's win. He'd probably be top 3/5 right now in the Vuelta.

Given that, I am happy the field is so close together after two mountain stages. Happy that Lopez, Quintana and Yates are in good form -- I love to see pure climbers doing their thing. Still, I haven't seen any evidence that anyone is conclusively on better form than the field.

I wouldn't completely rule out a podium spot for anyone in the top 16, though obviously some have better shots than others. It's really hard to call a winner right now -- any one of those riders could have a breakout day at any time, with 4 real mountain stages to come. Then there's the ITT which is long enough to create gaps of a minute or more.

 

[DanielSong39]

Looks like a 3 man race, between Quintana, Lopez, and Yates.

 

[Red Rick]

Uran could complete the set of 2nds. Any rider done that before without winning one?

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Uran could complete the set of 2nds. Any rider done that before without winning one?

Don't think so but actually it could get even more interesting. Since he already finished as 2nd at the Olympics all he needs is to be second this Vuelta and second in WCRR to become the most almost accomplished rider of this generation. It's doable.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Uran could complete the set of 2nds. Any rider done that before without winning one?

Don't think so but actually it could get even more interesting. Since he already finished as 2nd at the Olympics all he needs is to be second this Vuelta and second in WCRR to become the most almost accomplished rider of this generation. It's doable.

Haha yeah, definitely. Another doable, very interesting feat would be a Colombian podium this Vuelta. Out of the 5 strongest riders on Covatilla, 3 of them were Colombians. The 2 remaining riders? Kelderman, who has lost a bunch of time, and the unproven (GT-wise) Ion Izagirre.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Uran could complete the set of 2nds. Any rider done that before without winning one?

Don't think so but actually it could get even more interesting. Since he already finished as 2nd at the Olympics all he needs is to be second this Vuelta and second in WCRR to become the most almost accomplished rider of this generation. It's doable.

Too bad he crashed in Firenze, otherwise he would have had a great chance to get 2nd there.

Edit: Just took a look at the podium slam thread and there only Purito and van springel are listed as riders who have been on the podium in all three gt's but never won one, however Van Springel was only 3rd in the vuelta and Purito was only 3rd in the tour.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Uran could complete the set of 2nds. Any rider done that before without winning one?

Don't think so but actually it could get even more interesting. Since he already finished as 2nd at the Olympics all he needs is to be second this Vuelta and second in WCRR to become the most almost accomplished rider of this generation. It's doable.

Too bad Brajkovic, Sánchez and Rosa have all managed to find it in them to outsprint him for second in Lombardia...

 

[Pantani_lives]

If Uran holds back a little in the time trial he has a good chance of this slam of seconds.

 

[Tonton]

Rest Day #1...

The Apparent Winners: I write that considering the heat, efforts that may look good today, hurt week 3. No doubt that Simon says "I win it" and keeps showing the ability to gain 20s here and 15s there. Before you know, you're way behind. The Don and Quintana: at this point, if a Movistar rider doesn't win the whole thing, it's a major fail. I'll keep quiet, it's still very early. Gallopin.

What Was Expected: MAL, SK, solid through stages, lurking in the shadows and very much alive for a podium spot. Kwiat: just about where he should be. A few somehow good surprises in the top-15 but it's early.

The Apparent Losers: Thibaut and Wilco lost stupid time, Aru no longer is Aru, Porte, Nibali probably expected better and the "prepare the RRWC" line fits. Bauke? Yikes. He's off.

Rest Day 2 will show what I suspect is a very different picture. Every dog has his day, and his bad day maybe. The ITT after a rest day will reset it again.

Great Vuelta so far. Valverde can win this (I hope not). I would bet my $1 on him right now.

 

[Koronin]

Tonton, with Valverde's comments today he's not ruling out going after the overall win for himself. He said that he's already achieved the goals he came to the Vuelta with and how is racing the last two weeks with no pressure. He also said that he's not going to pass up any opportunities for wins or good results in the Vuelta and the energy he uses for that will not effect his Worlds. When asked if he was going to go after bonus seconds for the leaders jersey, his response was I'm going after bonus points and those seconds may come with the points. I agree that the ITT after the 2nd rest day will reset things again.
I'll go with Ben King and Valverde with 2 stage wins each, no matter what happens going forward baring injury, can say they've had a successful Vuelta.

 

[Blanco]

Quintana: Need to start gaining time in the mountains already at La Camperona. If he waits just for the Covadonga and Gallina stage I think it might not be enough with that ITT disadvantage. Ithink he's the best climber in the race, but that's not going to be enough if he doesn't show aggressiveness.

Yates: Climbs suits him like a glove, and he'll not be bad at the ITT either, but I think he's not in his Giro form. The key for him is what his DS says, not to waste his energy. In that case he has a great chance.

Lopez: Climbs very well, but his TT is horrible. Needs to out climb every one big time in order to win this race. I doubt this will be the case. Much better prospects for the podium though.

Uran: Interesting case. He seems to climbs good, but that TT will be the key for him. If he repeats last year's Tour performance, or even better his QS days performance, he's in it for the win. In opposite case even podium will be hard to reach.

Valverde: Another interesting case. We'll see already at Camperona if he got what it takes to contest for the win. If he's among the few strongest there, he's a contender alright. He'll be good then on the steep finishes in stages 14 and 17, and also on Covadonga where he was always good. ITT should be in his favor, he will concede time possibly only to Kelderman and Izagirre there. Only critical stage will be penultimate one, but by that time maybe his own teammate will work in his favor

Kelderman: Without that bad luck he would be among main contenders. ITT should be very good for him, he could take significant time there on the little climbers, especially Colombians. Key for him however will be the steep stuff. I'm not sure he'll cope well with the Spanish walls. If he can hold the wheels of Quintana, Lopez and Yates there he's a genuine contender for the win, even despite his previous loss.

Izagirre: He looks good, very good. He climbs good, he TT's even better. Only question mark will be his endurance and recovery, he never aimed for the GC in a Grand Tour before. I think he will fade somewhere in the process, but still think he could finish at least top 5.

Outside of these 7, I don't think anybody else could take the overall win.

 

[Blanco]

After La Camperona we're very much where we were before, with maybe Kelderman and Izagirre little out of the picture. Still think that Quintana is the favorite and the strongest, but he should try to drop Yates little further from the finish. Bala is still strong and very much in the game. Uran and Lopez looking like a podium candidates, for the win they will need more...

 

[Alexandre B.]

Valverde will not win this race.

 

[cantpedal]

Re:

Valverde will not win this race.

Quintana will not win this race

 

[May0maniac]

Valverde has a real shot, it should be between him, Quintana and Simon Yates. Lagos the Cowabunga has always been a great climb for Valverde and the TT should suit him better then those 2 and on Spanish soil Movistar riders always seem to gain a few extra watts durning an ITT. I wouldn't be surprised if Valverde gains over 30seconds into Nairo and 50sec ond Simon in the ITT, if he also manages to get some bonus seconds before the final mountain stage he has a chance to win the race.
One of them could have a bad day and loose the podium spot to MAL, but I don't see him winning the race.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Valverde has a real shot, it should be between him, Quintana and Simon Yates. Lagos the Cowabunga has always been a great climb for Valverde and the TT should suit him better then those 2 and on Spanish soil Movistar riders always seem to gain a few extra watts durning an ITT. I wouldn't be surprised if Valverde gains over 30seconds into Nairo and 50sec ond Simon in the ITT, if he also manages to get some bonus seconds before the final mountain stage he has a chance to win the race.
One of them could have a bad day and loose the podium spot to MAL, but I don't see him winning the race.

I think MAL can still win this. He can do a good TT when in good form. And the TT is not that long. These are not Froome or Dumoulin TT type riders. So I would not eliminate him.