Quintana: Need to start gaining time in the mountains already at La Camperona. If he waits just for the Covadonga and Gallina stage I think it might not be enough with that ITT disadvantage. Ithink he's the best climber in the race, but that's not going to be enough if he doesn't show aggressiveness.
Yates: Climbs suits him like a glove, and he'll not be bad at the ITT either, but I think he's not in his Giro form. The key for him is what his DS says, not to waste his energy. In that case he has a great chance.
Lopez: Climbs very well, but his TT is horrible. Needs to out climb every one big time in order to win this race. I doubt this will be the case. Much better prospects for the podium though.
Uran: Interesting case. He seems to climbs good, but that TT will be the key for him. If he repeats last year's Tour performance, or even better his QS days performance, he's in it for the win. In opposite case even podium will be hard to reach.
Valverde: Another interesting case. We'll see already at Camperona if he got what it takes to contest for the win. If he's among the few strongest there, he's a contender alright. He'll be good then on the steep finishes in stages 14 and 17, and also on Covadonga where he was always good. ITT should be in his favor, he will concede time possibly only to Kelderman and Izagirre there. Only critical stage will be penultimate one, but by that time maybe his own teammate will work in his favor
Kelderman: Without that bad luck he would be among main contenders. ITT should be very good for him, he could take significant time there on the little climbers, especially Colombians. Key for him however will be the steep stuff. I'm not sure he'll cope well with the Spanish walls. If he can hold the wheels of Quintana, Lopez and Yates there he's a genuine contender for the win, even despite his previous loss.
Izagirre: He looks good, very good. He climbs good, he TT's even better. Only question mark will be his endurance and recovery, he never aimed for the GC in a Grand Tour before. I think he will fade somewhere in the process, but still think he could finish at least top 5.
Outside of these 7, I don't think anybody else could take the overall win.