Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[Armchair Cyclist]

We don't have one of these yet?
Top nine (excluding Ayuso, inexplicably listed) at Oddchecker as at midday-ish Tuesday, plus the statutory Vino

 

[Rou]

Primoz Roglic will clean the race again. Enough with the disrespect he's getting. Enough with putting Remco over him in Grand Tours after this July.

 

[Berniece]

If Landa can reach the same level as at the TDF he’s got a good chance.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Voted for Thee GOAT.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Nairoman for the win!

(I'm too scared to vote for Rogla, he crashes. At this point I'm just kind of hoping he'll make it to the end of the Vuelta without any devastating crashes, fingers crossed.)

 

[Peter von]

I just ensured Rogla's win by voting GC Kuss FTW.

you're welcome Rogheads!

Kuss was much stronger last year than he got credit for because Jonas and Rogla was there as well. Peak Yates will beat him, but idk if I really believe Adam will reach the peak without being a Pogi donkey; maybe I am mistaken tho.
I don't think Rogla's prep is optimal.

 

[Lequack]

No Skjelmose, aka the young Vingegaard?

 

[YavorD]

If Almeida and Yates can reach their level from Suisse and the Tour they may very well be 1-2.
However, I don't believe they can keep such a peak for 3 months.
My vote goes for Roglic.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

No Skjelmose, aka the young Vingegaard?

Skjelmose is more of a young Fuglsang.

 

[Peter von]

Skjelmose is more of a young Fuglsang.

I think they both won Tour of Denmark at the same age, it's 1 to 1

Edit:
Nvm. I just had Bad memory

 

[RedheadDane]

I think they both won Tour of Denmark at the same age, it's 1 to 1

Skjelmose never won Tour of Denmark.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Enric Mas, obviously..

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[RedheadDane]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

You did?!

 

[red_flanders]

Wondering if Carapaz can hold form long enough. Or how much he cares. Worth a vote. Fairly open race.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Wondering if Carapaz can hold form long enough. Or how much he cares. Worth a vote. Fairly open race.

Most open race since...?

 

[ontheroad]

Roglic is the standout rider in terms of palmares but he has had far from an ideal preparation and his best days are now probably behind him. This could be his best chance at winning another grand tour given the big riders who are absent.

I'd like to see Mas or Almeida win it but I've gone with Yates who looked strong in Switzerland.

 

[red_flanders]

Most open race since...?

Don't know, what are your thoughts?

Just commenting on this race, it seems there's no obviously dominant rider given Roglič's difficulties, and a lot of very good riders potentially with ambition.

 

[Didinho]

If Landa can reach the same level as at the TDF he’s got a good chance.

He’s a different beast as a domestique. Let him know he’s riding for Knox and he’s easily winning the whole thing.

I’m voting Almeida. Good consistent level this year again, hope he can get his first GT win.

 

[red_flanders]

I'd like to see Skjelmose do something. A lot of these other guys I've seen plenty of before. Having a 23-year-old shake things up would be nice.

 

[Sciatic]

Mas to finally do it (or at least have the lead going into the final TT)

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Roglic in a good fight with Carapaz, with Mas and the UAE fighting for third place at distance.

P.S. People exaggerate too much with the level of Adam Yates nowadays, it's starting to get annoying.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

This is probably the most unpredictable GT I can remember, not just in terms of who's going to win but also in terms of what kind of racing we're going to get. My main worries are Roglic being the strongest in the race (although I don't expect him to be much better than in 2022) and Mas being the second-strongest, both of those have historically been clear net negatives in terms of action.

As for my vote - honestly, none of them feel like they should be winning to me and I think Ayuso threw away a golden opportunity by insisting on doing the Tour and burning a bunch of bridges in the process. Roglic is coming back from injury and probably won't be better than in 2022, Yates at 32 has never come within 9 minutes of winning a GT since Contador retired, Kuss was more or less a fluke, Almeida is a serial 3-5 guy, Mas and Landa are serial losers, Martinez has done one good GT in his life and the riders he beat were an ancient Thomas and Ben O'Connor, Rodriguez had a disappointing Tour and I don't even know that he was planning to start here, Carapaz hasn't done a GT GC in 2.5 years. Fully expect a big surprise to at least podium here - Del Toro, Lipowitz, Poole and Van Eetvelt come to mind.

For the win, though - Carapaz also hasn't had an uninterrupted run at GC in those 2.5 years, came into the Tour undercooked and looked really good in the final week. So in absence of a better option, he gets my vote.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think the gap Yates was beaten with by Pogi and Vingegaard is all that important. It could easily have been less or more, depending on how the two raced against each other. Yates still beat all the rest.

He was more than 8 minutes closer to yellow than Almeida was this year, but I also think that number is completely meaningless here.

 

[Cookster15]

I'll go out on a limb and pick Almeida. This is the race Ayuso could have won if he wasn't so delusional.