Who will win Milano-Sanremo 2024?

[topcat]

I'll stick my nose out and say Pog drops everyone on Poggio but gets caught over the final metres. Same quartet as in Glasgow battles it out. Inches decide and WVA nips it for the second time.

Ala has a better chance than WVA

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Pidcock seems to be in crap form but he's a lunatic descender and has the ability to win a la Mohoric. Just don't think it will be this year.

 

[Netserk]

Pidcock seems to be in crap form

I don't think so. He was strong in Algarve, Strade & Tirreno, just against better competition than last year. While I think he is too light for Poggio and the flat afterwards, I think he looks on track.

 

[Andre]

I voted for MVDP.... Powless, Pog, VanGils, outside chance

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Mads Pedersen usually finds a way to get dropped by one or more riders on the hardest climbs in one-day races, so I'm not overly confident on his behalf. Maybe he'll have a better shot if it's wet and cold, but then Pogi will obviously be a bigger favourite, unless the heat training has made him more vulnerable in those conditions.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

There‘s a reason why it‘s called the POGgio.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Ala has a better chance than WVA

WVA is not riding

 

[jono]

What are the race circumstances required for Pogacar to win? Weren't last year's conditions (tailwind on Poggio) just about as favourable as he could have hoped for?

 

[Brullnux]

What are the race circumstances required for Pogacar to win? Weren't last year's conditions (tailwind on Poggio) just about as favourable as he could have hoped for?

Yeah but then we had thermonuclear MDVP

 

[jono]

Yeah but then we had thermonuclear MDVP

Even without MVDP's attack in the last few hundred metres of the climb, Pogacar wasn't winning that race.

 

[Keldergoat]

I think Bettiol is entering the whatsapp group of potential winners next Saturday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767916080616403315

View: https://twitter.com/MiTo1876/status/1767916080616403315

 

[Sciatic]

Pidcock seems to be in crap form but he's a lunatic descender and has the ability to win a la Mohoric. Just don't think it will be this year.

Well, with a crazy descent he’d still have to beat Mohoric.

 

[Sciatic]

WVA is not riding

Exactly the point

 

[joseph89]

Bettiol

 

[Nick2413]

Pogacar got 4th after just barely not managing to gap VdP in Flanders 2022 then won outright the next year.

Pogacar got 4th after being dropped by VdP in MSR 2023 then ______ in 2024.

My guess is Pogacar still won’t be strong enough given he actually got dropped and also had several riders with him in 2023, so even if he has improved a win is unlikely.

His best chance is dynamics playing out in a way where he doesn’t have to do the attacking on Poggio and saves 2% energy to make a final attack at the top, just like VdP did last year. But that is unlikely, so I go with VdP winning again.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Exactly the point

Wishful thinking on my part. A race without Wout, Mathieu and Tadej is a little of a disappointment but at least two of them will race MSR.

 

[Potomac]

I'm betting on the Bettiol bandwagon

 

[Savant12]

Outsider: Luke Plapp. Looks in decent form but never shone in one-day races.

 

[sam6]

There is one obvious answer missing from the poll

Mark Padun from the early break

 

[yaco]

Outsider: Luke Plapp. Looks in decent form but never shone in one-day races.

Interesting - The Poggio is similar to Willunga Hill which Plapp flies up. However, there is much stronger competition at MSR.

 

[tobydawq]

Interesting - The Poggio is similar to Willunga Hill which Plapp flies up. However, there is much stronger competition at MSR.

It's not similar by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Sybrand]

Kooij also survived that first stage of P-N and beat Pedersen in the sprint. If Pog and MvdP start looking to each other and don't ride Poggio as fast as possible, I wouldn't rule him out.

 

[dazaau]

Mads Pedersen usually finds a way to get dropped by one or more riders on the hardest climbs in one-day races, so I'm not overly confident on his behalf. Maybe he'll have a better shot if it's wet and cold, but then Pogi will obviously be a bigger favourite, unless the heat training has made him more vulnerable in those conditions.

Yeah, I think if uae drill it on the previous climb and then pog goes all out on the poggio I'm not sure pedersen hangs on, very will IMHO.

 

[Nerlo]

Kooij also survived that first stage of P-N and beat Pedersen in the sprint. If Pog and MvdP start looking to each other and don't ride Poggio as fast as possible, I wouldn't rule him out.

Unfortunately for Kooij, neither Pog nor Mathieu is gonna sit up. Maybe if a bigger group can hold on to their wheels, but I don’t see it happening.

 

[Froome]

Mathieu Van der Poel.