Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[SHAD0W93]

Notice that he's 24 and his team leader is on the podium there. He put it together over 3 weeks, and he wasn't riding for himself.

No denying he did good and I wasn't gonig to bring up him getting 8th and supporting his leader unless you did, but Kloden got 2nd, 29 at the time, when he was supporting Ullrich (4th) in the tour while Nibali got 3rd while supporting Basso (1) in the Giro.
Hopefully Kloden can get that form

 

[cineteq]

No denying he did good and I wasn't gonig to bring up him getting 8th and supporting his leader unless you did, but Kloden got 2nd, 29 at the time, when he was supporting Ullrich (4th) in the tour while Nibali got 3rd while supporting Basso (1) in the Giro.
Hopefully Kloden can get that form

Maybe he was suggesting Anton will win the GC provided Nibali, Wiggins and Menchov crash out?
Seriously guys, 30% think Anton will win La Vuelta. Did Libertine Seguros rig this poll?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Maybe he was suggesting Anton will win the GC provided Nibali, Wiggins and Menchov crash out?
Seriously guys, 30% think Anton will win La Vuelta. Did Libertine Seguros rig this poll?

Knowing Wiggins and Menchov a crash is a big possibility but same can be said about Anton.

 

[Andre.J]

Vdb...........

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Maybe, but at least you agree that it will be one the best ITT riders of the group.

PS: I still don't understand why Anton got so many votes based on just last year's Vuelta. It doesn't make sense.

it makes sense only if you look at last year's race and see that he was in the lead and arguably the strongest rider in the race when he crashed out.

it doesn't make sense if you look at his overall results.

imho, he will show up for this and possibly podium, but i don't see anything to suggest he will win it. i would not be altogether sad to be proven wrong.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

this vuelta will provide a lot of fireworks for the eensy little climbers. and that will be exciting.

but my prediction is, that given the long tt and the ttt that the winner will be someone that can hang in a long tt, yet still defend on the slopes of angliru.

this will be the menchov/wiggins/nibali show with a climber like anton maybe on the podium.

i picked wiggins in the poll because i really think the parcours was written for this type of rider if he is in the form that i think he is. sky will be strong in the mountains and the tt.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Votes for Antón are not based on just last year's Vuelta.

- Igor Antón was by far and away the climber of last year's Vuelta for two weeks. Short and steep or long and gradual, it didn't matter, he won 2 stages on polar opposite climbing finishes.
- Igor Antón won on Monte Zoncolán earlier this year. Maybe the toughest climb currently in use in the sport - but its nearest competitor is on the Vuelta route approaching now. He put time into Nibali, Rodríguez and Menchov, all of whom are considered major threats to him in this Vuelta.
- Igor Antón is one of precious few people to have dropped Alberto Contador; on the Alto del Morredero in the Vuelta a Castilla y León 2010, he left Alberto stranded. Not outsprinted in the last couple of hundred metres like Morzine. Dropped during a climb.
- In the 2008 Vuelta a España, Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde traded attacks on the way to Pla de Beret. Igor Antón was the only rider who could follow these attacks. Ultimately, they didn't gain much; Pla de Beret isn't the most taxing climb. But, the fact still remains that Igor Antón was the only one who could follow, and this in a race that included Mosquera, Sastre, Leipheimer and Rodríguez. He was lying 6th overall, with one of those riders ahead of him being Egoi Martínez, who had been allowed the maillot oro in a breakaway, before he crashed out of the race on the descent of the Alto del Cordal.
- He won the queen stage of the 2010 Tour de Romandie, after Valverde's demotion. This included a few tough climbs, especially the final climb of Ovronnaz. Riders he beat that day include Menchov and Brajkovic.

There is plenty of evidence to say that Igor Antón is an élite climber and that he has a very good chance of winning this Vuelta, without needing to actually even talk about last year's race. I haven't even mentioned his week 3 mountaintop stage win from 2006 or his top ten finish in 2007, both of which came as a support rider!

great post. up to your usual standards. there is little doubt that anton is a force on the steeps.

but you left out that part about the long time trial. the question becomes: can anton defend the tt kms better than wiggins/nibali/menchov can defend the climbs?

will be answered on the road, i suppose.

 

[nobilis]

I voted for Anton but also hoping for purito. He deserves a big win and Anton has more years ahead of him.

And if the curse over Team Movistar is over, I would expect Benat Inxausti to do a top 10.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Seriously, Wiggins? He will finish at least 6 minutes behind the winner.

 

[Je ne sais quoi]

this vuelta will provide a lot of fireworks for the eensy little climbers. and that will be exciting.

but my prediction is, that given the long tt and the ttt that the winner will be someone that can hang in a long tt, yet still defend on the slopes of angliru.

this will be the menchov/wiggins/nibali show with a climber like anton maybe on the podium.
...

This has to be the most depressing post in the history of cycling.

Dude, you're harshing my buzz.

[Said in jest]

Now where was I ...

... **** ...

At this year's Vuelta, the attacking riders will bide their time, and when the moment is right, they will explode like the fireworks on Bastille Day, shredding the field. Every day they will redefine what is humanly possible; they will do battle and laugh like it was their last battle on earth, and survey the road as the osprey regards the ocean, while those riders that remain imprisoned within their limits will be as the dust on the road.

... **** ...

 

[The Hitch]

Maybe he was suggesting Anton will win the GC provided Nibali, Wiggins and Menchov crash out?
Seriously guys, 30% think Anton will win La Vuelta. Did Libertine Seguros rig this poll?

I think Anton will win and i didnt even vote for him.

Hes the strongest climber and gts are usually won in the mountains.

Seems like pretty straight forward logic to me.

 

[El Pistolero]

I think Anton will win and i didnt even vote for him.

Hes the strongest climber and gts are usually won in the mountains.

Seems like pretty straight forward logic to me.

I think Anton will win as well, and also didn't vote for him(I voted for VDB2 knowing he won't win)

To further prove your point.

 

[Sophistic]

As steep some of the climb are, its not that much of an anti-Wiggins/pro Anton-Purito course.
There are 2 MTFs that suit him very well, and the other 4 are no marathon stages. How much is he gonna lose on stage 9 for example, there are no climbs till the MTF and the first 12k suit him better than the leightweights.
Stage 14 features the freakish San Lorenzo but the final climb gives a good chance for a big gear smasher to come back/keep the gaps small.
Stage 19 isnt gonna produce big time gaps either, leaving the Angliru as the only opportunity to gain signifcant time.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Bet365 has

Anton 3/1
Joaquin Rodriguez 5/1
Scarponi 11/2
Nibali 6/1
Menchov 13/2
Wiggins 13/1
Van Den Broeck 18/1
Brajkovic 22/1
Kloden 40/1
Sastre 66/1
martin 80/1
Kruijswijk 80/1


So some differences, But Anton would appear to be the favourite.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Anton will win and i didnt even vote for him.
Hes the strongest climber and gts are usually won in the mountains.

Seems like pretty straight forward logic to me.

The poll asks "Who will win the Vuelta a Espana?"

 

[cineteq]

The poll asks "Who will win the Vuelta a Espana?"

Right! These fanboys can't make a straight forward decision

 

[Angliru]

Votes for Antón are not based on just last year's Vuelta.

- Igor Antón was by far and away the climber of last year's Vuelta for two weeks. Short and steep or long and gradual, it didn't matter, he won 2 stages on polar opposite climbing finishes.
- Igor Antón won on Monte Zoncolán earlier this year. Maybe the toughest climb currently in use in the sport - but its nearest competitor is on the Vuelta route approaching now. He put time into Nibali, Rodríguez and Menchov, all of whom are considered major threats to him in this Vuelta.
- Igor Antón is one of precious few people to have dropped Alberto Contador; on the Alto del Morredero in the Vuelta a Castilla y León 2010, he left Alberto stranded. Not outsprinted in the last couple of hundred metres like Morzine. Dropped during a climb.
- In the 2008 Vuelta a España, Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde traded attacks on the way to Pla de Beret. Igor Antón was the only rider who could follow these attacks. Ultimately, they didn't gain much; Pla de Beret isn't the most taxing climb. But, the fact still remains that Igor Antón was the only one who could follow, and this in a race that included Mosquera, Sastre, Leipheimer and Rodríguez. He was lying 6th overall, with one of those riders ahead of him being Egoi Martínez, who had been allowed the maillot oro in a breakaway, before he crashed out of the race on the descent of the Alto del Cordal.
- He won the queen stage of the 2010 Tour de Romandie, after Valverde's demotion. This included a few tough climbs, especially the final climb of Ovronnaz. Riders he beat that day include Menchov and Brajkovic.

There is plenty of evidence to say that Igor Antón is an élite climber and that he has a very good chance of winning this Vuelta, without needing to actually even talk about last year's race. I haven't even mentioned his week 3 mountaintop stage win from 2006 or his top ten finish in 2007, both of which came as a support rider!

+1000. I was going to post something in support of Anton but you put what I was going to post to shame. Excellent post!

 

[nvpacchi]

Antón also finished 21st in Vuelta ITT in 2007, 58 seconds behind winner/teammate Sanchez and 46 seconds behind Menchov. Also beating the likes of LLS, Zubelidia, and Kreuziger proving that he does have the ability to recover in 3rd week. This result is nothing to sneeze at, but proof that he can be moderately successful in a panflat ITT.

His time trialing has improved since 2007, so I have confidence he will be able to limit his losses in the ITT to the likes of Menchov and Nibali.

_

Also I think its important to note that stages 13-15 are a 3 full days of mountainous treachery. The Tour has abandoned this setup, but the Giro gave us an identical setup this year.

In the final stage to Gardecchia; Menchov, Nibali, Purito, and especially Antón all lost more than a minute to Rujano and almost 2+ minutes to Contador. Scarponi was able to recover nicely for the 3rd straight day.

So it will be interesting to see who out of Menchov, Nibali, Purito, Antón, and Scarponi will be able to recover the best for the 3rd of 3 straight mountain stages.

 

[movingtarget]

There's no argument on the elite climber point. I'd go so far as to say that there's plenty of evidence to say that measuring best day against best day, he's the best climber in the field. But that's the key factor in winning a super hard mountain stage, not the only factor in winning a Grand Tour.

The fact is that at the Giro he was great one day, abysmal the next. And, bar Rodriguez and perhaps Dan Martin, every other potential top 10 guy time trials better than he does. He has to put significant time into the likes of Nibali and Menchov on the climbs, which is, if they are on form, a tough thing to do.

Anton is one of the guys who can win the Vuelta, but I think sentiment is making him the outright favourite here.

Yeah I think consistency is the key. Last year Anton looked good before he crashed out but as the Giro performance showed even though he is a great climber, he rarely performs day after day. This where I think old heads like Menchov and Scarponi have an advantage. I think Menchov will do much better than he did in the Giro and Nibali also has to be considered because of his past few GC results in grand tours. Rodriguez and Anton will have to put at least a few minutes into the other contenders in the mountains and they will lose all of that in the TT's. They might win a few stages each but will the time differences be enough ? I think it will be a close race with not much time difference between the top 3.

 

[Angliru]

Yeah I think consistency is the key. Last year Anton looked good before he crashed out but as the Giro performance showed even though he is a great climber, he rarely performs day after day. This where I think old heads like Menchov and Scarponi have an advantage. I think Menchov will do much better than he did in the Giro and Nibali also has to be considered because of his past few GC results in grand tours. Rodriguez and Anton will have to put at least a few minutes into the other contenders in the mountains and they will lose all of that in the TT's. They might win a few stages each but will the time differences be enough ? I think it will be a close race with not much time difference between the top 3.

I believe Anton's and Euskaltel's goal(s) going into the Giro were chasing stage wins, not the overall. After they achieved their goal in consecutive stages they had no reason to push for a high placement in the gc.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Maybe he was suggesting Anton will win the GC provided Nibali, Wiggins and Menchov crash out?
Seriously guys, 30% think Anton will win La Vuelta. Did Libertine Seguros rig this poll?

Maybe we should consider that I have not voted on this poll and already said that I consider Nibali to be the probable favourite. I would consider Denis Menchov the favourite if I knew he would be on peak form; but I can't guarantee he will, so am a bit hesitant to make that call.

I defended Antón not because I think he's the favourite, though he's certainly a major contender who should be considered among the major contenders. I defended Antón because a post was suggesting that people were basing their choosing of him as the favourite solely on the 2010 Vuelta, implying he'd shown nothing elsewhere to justify being considered a favourite.

I considered that greatly unjust and unfair on Igor Antón, who has been compiling good results for much of the last five years (though 2009 was a bit of a washout after missing most of the off-season thanks to his Vuelta-ending injury in 2008).

Given his pedigree in the mountains, I think those people who have selected Igor Antón as the favourite for the race have every reason to consider him the favourite, considering the mountainous nature of the route. I may not agree with them, but discarding their opinion by suggesting it's based solely on two weeks last year is, in my opinion, both harsh and unfair on both Antón and the posters.

 

[theyoungest]

With most of the other guys we more or less know what they're capable of, and that we shouldn't expect any miracles from them. Antón could still be the guy that really stands out. That's what makes people vote for him, I think. At least, that's what made me vote for him.

 

[staubsauger]

at least i am not lookingat nibali as a favourite. There are mentsjov, anton which are on top level much better than vicenzo. Also scarponi have beatenn him this years giro didn't he and liquigas haven't got a that strong team to support him as they have usually or? I expect a big big suprise and i'm really looking forward to se kruijswijk performing in spain. If his progress is still increasing that strong like it have been done in past i could really see him performing like gesink did in 09! He should be a dark horse for the podium/ top 5 as he has those killer instinct to attack whenever there's a chance to do so. He even tried to attack alberto once in the giro didn't he?

 

[ferryman]

2 days to go and I still can't make my mind up. I keep making a case for all of the favourites, heck even Wiggins, albeit briefly and then changing my mind If pushed, this evening I'm leaning towards Nibali just for his all round steadiness. My heart goes with Anton (well Sastre really but I have to be realistic I guess) but both TTs make me worry for Igor.

I fully expect to change my mind before kick off

 

[taiwan]

IDFK, I said Scarponi. If I was going to pick that sort of rider, I should have backed Rodriguez though. I haven't looked at the parcours closely enough to judge what sort of rider will win.