Who will win the 2013 tour?

[Pentacycle]

IMO Quintana won't do much for himself, with the Vuelta in mind. His preparation for the Tour isn't sufficient to be competitive in GC, as his goal is to support Valverde when they hit the mountains after the first week.

Valverde will return those services in the Vuelta, when Quintana leads the team.(if nothing happens along the next months)

 

[LaFlorecita]

So if Froome finished 10 minutes down on Valverde Rodriguez and Contador at the Vuelta but beat Nibali by 3 minutes at the tour that makes nibali 13 minutes worse than valverde

Hahaha roflol hitch trolling the ubertroll

 

[movingtarget]

IMO Quintana won't do much for himself, with the Vuelta in mind. His preparation for the Tour isn't sufficient to be competitive in GC, as his goal is to support Valverde when they hit the mountains after the first week.

Valverde will return those services in the Vuelta, when Quintana leads the team.(if nothing happens along the next months)

Unusual that Quintana did not ride the Giro or TOC and won't race the TDS or Dauphine. The lack of racing won't be good for the Tour but should help him in the Vuelta and in the third week of the Tour when Valverde will be relying on him.

 

[airstream]

Quintana has an extraordinary talent, but Pinot was the best Tour neophyte for 20 years (9th place) and I don't expect the colombian to beat this result. Not because he's weaker, contention will be sharper this year.

 

[Sophistic82]

where is the fuglsang option???haha

 

[Dutchsmurf]

My top 5 is Contador, Froome, Quintana, Rodriguez and Martin.

Froome tour 12 kills contador vuelta 12. Did you see how easily Froome matched everyone? Contador wasn't even the strongest in the race for the Vuelta, smarter and showed more grit, and willing to take a risk. Tour 09, and giro 11, and we have a race. I get the impression we are going to see a stronger Froome than in 2012, and Contador will be around his Giro 11, maybe a little under. Froome to be a little stronger, but Sky to slip up somewhere.

But who did Froome match exactly in that Tour? It is easy to match everyone when there is basically no competition. Take away the ITT and the advantage Froome and Wiggins had isn't that impressive at all. Froome better be a lot stronger than Tour 2012 if he wants to have a chance. So far this season that is exactly what he has shown, but Tour 2012 shape wasn't that impressive in my opinion.

 

[Galic Ho]

Rein Taaramäe racing?

I'll go with him for a long shot.

 

[roundabout]

Froome rode on the front for 2km? at PdBF and still won

Froome was in the process of riding away from everyone on Peyragudes but was whistled back

Froome pulled for most of Toussuire and when he accelerated only Pinot could go with him before his car ordered him to stop

 

[ILovecycling]

IMO Quintana won't do much for himself, with the Vuelta in mind. His preparation for the Tour isn't sufficient to be competitive in GC, as his goal is to support Valverde when they hit the mountains after the first week.

Valverde will return those services in the Vuelta, when Quintana leads the team.(if nothing happens along the next months)

Its not certain that Quintana will ride Vuelta...Imo its not a good idea for this young to race back-to-back GTs.

 

[Pentacycle]

Its not certain that Quintana will ride Vuelta...Imo its not a good idea for this young to race back-to-back GTs.

When you don't race Suisse or Dauphiné prior to the Tour, it's clear that you want to be relatively fresh after the TdF, to aim for the Vuelta GC. I too don't think it's very sensible to let a 23yo race the Vuelta right after his TdF debut, but if there's one who has the talent to handle that kind of strain, it's Quintana.

 

[Pentacycle]

But who did Froome match exactly in that Tour? It is easy to match everyone when there is basically no competition. Take away the ITT and the advantage Froome and Wiggins had isn't that impressive at all. Froome better be a lot stronger than Tour 2012 if he wants to have a chance. So far this season that is exactly what he has shown, but Tour 2012 shape wasn't that impressive in my opinion.

In last year's Vuelta's first week(particularly to Arrate) Froome matched Rodriguez, Contador and Valverde uphill, and all of them were close to their top shape at that moment. So they could be pretty close together again, this time in the Tour. The Dauphiné will give us the reference we need.

 

[Miburo]

Froome rode on the front for 2km? at PdBF and still won

Froome was in the process of riding away from everyone on Peyragudes but was whistled back

Froome pulled for most of Toussuire and when he accelerated only Pinot could go with him before his car ordered him to stop

Wow Pinot, THE Pinot? Damn how impressive from Froome...

 

[roundabout]

Way to miss the point, champ.

 

[airstream]

Wow Pinot, THE Pinot? Damn how impressive from Froome...

Miburo, you swim in some strange comparisons which you want to see and reject any other stuff. Both Wiggins and Froome didn't have any attacking mission on Toussuire. Even if the bunch of 20 had finished all together, they would've been satisfied with the result. Pinot didn't interest them at all. If there hadn't been Rolland up to the road, Sky would even have allowed Pinot to take the stage I think.

 

[Ruby United]

At the moment Froome but I'm going to reserve my full judgement until after the Dauphine. There's every chance we could see Contador close to or on the right track to getting back to his best.

Just look at the Giro and Evans surprising many including myself who thought he was seriously on the wane.

Evans is so gonna die during the Tour and BMC will once again be wishing they'd stuck with TJV.

 

[Ruby United]

Rolland van garderen and vdb in the poll but no nairito. Tut tut tut.

Forgot 'bout him

 

[gooner]

Evans is so gonna die during the Tour and BMC will once again be wishing they'd stuck with TJV.

That maybe so as back to back GTs will probably catch up more now in his latter years.

Going into the Giro is what is being referred to here and my prediction and probably many others was on what we saw going into that and coming off last season. Yet we seen probably the best Evans since the 2011 Tour. Not enough to win of course but enough to put in a very respectable performance and one which was above what many predicted beforehand.

 

[karlboss]

But who did Froome match exactly in that Tour? It is easy to match everyone when there is basically no competition. Take away the ITT and the advantage Froome and Wiggins had isn't that impressive at all. Froome better be a lot stronger than Tour 2012 if he wants to have a chance. So far this season that is exactly what he has shown, but Tour 2012 shape wasn't that impressive in my opinion.

He didn't match anyone, he was better than everyone.
These excuses just sound like those surrounding Armstrong going from 1999-2000. 1999, no pantani, no ullrich when these 2 come back in 2000 Armstrong has no hope...
Given a free hand I honestly think every MTF in the final week Froome could have put a minute into everyone each time.
Of course the only time difference was TT he wasn't allowed to leave his leader to pen gaps in the mountains.

 

[orangerider]

Much rather see Evans skip the tour and do the Vuelta instead. Pair that up with him having a very solid chance at winning the Worlds course this year if he can maintain his shape, which he absolutely wont be able to if he does the full Tour.

 

[number0]

froome.my opinion.

 

[Froome19]

Evans is so gonna die during the Tour and BMC will once again be wishing they'd stuck with TJV.

Tejay won't be put to doing work for Evans unless in extreme circumstances, Evans won't just get a free pass to unrivaled team leadership. He will have to earn it and I don't think BMC will compromise Tejay's chances on the climbs for Evans all that much. It won't be dual leadership, but not an entire team behind one leader end off either.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

He didn't match anyone, he was better than everyone.
These excuses just sound like those surrounding Armstrong going from 1999-2000. 1999, no pantani, no ullrich when these 2 come back in 2000 Armstrong has no hope...
Given a free hand I honestly think every MTF in the final week Froome could have put a minute into everyone each time.
Of course the only time difference was TT he wasn't allowed to leave his leader to pen gaps in the mountains.

There only was 1 MTF in the final week. Even if he got a minute there, he still lost a minute to Wiggins in the ITT after it too. So no idea where he would get the other 2 minutes he would have needed to win.

It is not that I think Froome has no chance at all. But if I want to make an argument for Froome winning, I would use his 2013 season, not the 2012 Tour. Simply because his season so far has been impressive and the 2012 Tour wasn't that impressive.

 

[karlboss]

There only was 1 MTF in the final week. Even if he got a minute there, he still lost a minute to Wiggins in the ITT after it too. So no idea where he would get the other 2 minutes he would have needed to win.

It is not that I think Froome has no chance at all. But if I want to make an argument for Froome winning, I would use his 2013 season, not the 2012 Tour. Simply because his season so far has been impressive and the 2012 Tour wasn't that impressive.

Point wasn't that he would have won the tour it was that he was by far the strongest and in the 3rd week. Being the strongest in the biggest race of the year over other riders who have peaked and done everything to be at their best always counts for more than winning early season, I see 2013 as a confirmation of 2012 form, not a step up.
I know we see things differently, but the way he dropped everyone bar Wiggins on stage 17 was riding with 1 hand looking over his shoulder at Wiggins just made it look far too easy and for me has been more impressive than anything he's done this year. Keeping in mind noone goes to the tour as a training race.

 

[Pippo_San]

VDB2 must be in the poll just for the lulz ain't he?

So, well. Jakob Fuglsang. There.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

So must Gesink!