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Who will win the 2013 tour?
- Thread starter Ruby United
- Start date
I think it will be a battle between A.C. and Froome, with Froome coming out on top, partly because of the Time Trials.
At the moment Froome but I'm going to reserve my full judgement until after the Dauphine. There's every chance we could see Contador close to or on the right track to getting back to his best.
Just look at the Giro and Evans surprising many including myself who thought he was seriously on the wane.
Just look at the Giro and Evans surprising many including myself who thought he was seriously on the wane.
airstream
BANNED
Froome, he has really stepped up his game this year. Outside of sickness or crashes, I think he's going to win by a fairly comfortable margin (around 3 minutes).
airstream
BANNED
Unfortunately, Froome's win won't look revolutional. I'd rather his sudden victory to observe effect on the forum. 
It would've been sweet.
It would've been sweet.
It's almost even between AC and Froome?
I remember that last month when a poll like this was there Froome was winning hard. Nothing changed until then except Contador his words And Some saxo guys doing way better.
I vote for Froome last time.
Going for Contador now
I remember that last month when a poll like this was there Froome was winning hard. Nothing changed until then except Contador his words And Some saxo guys doing way better.
I vote for Froome last time.
Going for Contador now
While an overall win isn't out of the question, where will he build up such a margin over Contador? As a climber he's comparable (at best) and as a TTist he's maybe slightly better. But not '3 minutes difference' better.Lanark said:
airstream
BANNED
That's a hilarious avalanche of thoughts. Wiggins is disliked so strongly that people even are ready to support Froome, but when it comes to Froome and Contador, everyone 'remembers' Froome is from Sky and hence it's necessary to support anyone but him. Logically Froome should have more voices certainly. Miburo don't you register bots?
Logically Froome should have more voices certainly. Miburo don't you register bots? theyoungest said:
An off-the-cuff calculation for those 3 minutes: 30 seconds in the TTT, 45 in each time trial, and a minute in the mountains.
I think that at this point Froome is a better climber than Contador, maybe he was last year as well, but considering how he stepped up his game this year, he is certainly now. Don't forget that Rodriguez took 45 seconds on Contador on Bola del Mundo last year.
Maybe Contador was weak last year because of a lack of racing, but the evidence doesn't seem to show it that way. This spring he was in the worst shape (in a period where he wants to be good, and doesn't have any significant bad luck) he was in his entire carreer. Froome took an easy 23 seconds on him on Green Mountain, and 15 on Prato di Tivo (and another 15 in the short ITT). I expect the battle for GC to be a lot less exciting than most people seem to expect.
Lanark said:
What has this to do with anything
Btw Contador attacked 2 times on prato di tivo (also attacked on green mountain). Way to go to avoid that
airstream said:That's a hilarious avalanche of thoughts. Wiggins is disliked so strongly that people even are ready to support Froome, but when it comes to Froome and Contador, everyone 'remembers' Froome is from Sky and hence it's necessary to support anyone but him.
Wait, Wtf are you on about?
I wrote the following piece for some gambling friends. Ignore the gambiling context (too lazy to delete), but it gives an idea of what I think of the main GC guys:
Here is my idea of the Tour GC contenders in order of betting.
Froome 7/5. This guy is a worthy favourite, given how good he has looked this year, how he is Number 1 in the best GC team, and given the form of Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. He is not my idea of a bet though, as the opposition is very deep, and he has yet to get over the line in a Grand Tour.
Contador 5/2. I think Alberto is far too short, given how he has performed this year so far. Sure, he has the pedigree, but his performance in the Basque Country, Tirreno-Adriatico and even Oman do not look good enough in the context of this Tour. Sure, he might have been sandbagging for the year, and you never know when cyclists can generate “form”, but for me, he has a moderate chance.
Wiggins 14/1. Sir Bradley was very disappointing in Italy. Sir Bradley is not his team’s nominated leader. Sir Bradley does not have a course to suit him. Sir Bradley has too many negative marks to consider backing him.
Rodriquez 16/1. I thought this guy was nailed on for a Grand Tour this year, but that was when I thought he would do Italy and Spain again. The competition looks very strong, and he has been a touch short of his best this spring. That said, he looked the best rider in last year’s Vuelta, and he is sure to be aiming his season, and his strong team directly at this race. I think he is a great bet to place, and I would like to see odds on him for Top 5 or Top 6 closer to the race (as I think he is a banker for that). But his time trial will likely prevent him from winning a GT again.
Schleck 25/1. It will be a very interesting race if this dude is back on form. The course suits him, with the small amount of Flat ITT kilometres, and the heavy (for the Tour) emphasis on climbing. But his form this year is very bad. He is certainly aiming for a peak this July, but will that peak be back to his best, or will it be good enough to finish a 3week Tour hours down? I don’t know, so no bet.
Van Garderen 33/1. He was good last year, and looks to be in good form. Finished very close in San Luis, Paris-Nice, the Criterium International and won the Tour of California. I think he will struggle when the top dogs come to the last 2-3km on Ventoux, l’Alpe and Semnoz. And his time trialling is solid, but there are not enough km of time trialling for it to become a factor to swing yellow in his favour.
Valverde 33/1. This is where it gets interesting. Valverde was going very well when he fell in Catalunya, and he has been going very solidly ever since. He looked to me like he was well able to cope with Froome, Contador and Rodriguez in Spain last year, but he suffered for losing the minute in an earlier stage and didn’t have the poke to get back. I would think he was a great bet each way, if there wasn’t a certain teammate to spoil things.
Quintana 33/1. Quintana looked good in Catalunya, won a mountain stage in the Dauphiné last year and was excellent as a domestique for Valverde in last year’s Vuelta. But it was his performance in the Basque country that really stood out. He survived rain, wind, steep finishes and a deep field to remain in contention until the last day. And then he blew Richie Porte out of the water in the last ITT. I think he is my bet, but I am not sure what Movistar’s tactics will be, so I will be reading media with interest in the next few weeks.
Evans 33/1. He was good in the Giro, but faded in the last week. I find it hard to think he will be good enough this summer, and not many Giro placed horses go on to win the Tour. He has the wrong profile, is too old, and BMC would be better served supporting Tejay van Garderen.
Nibali 40/1. Won’t ride.
Porte 66/1. Will be a support rider.
Van den Broeck 66/1. If he wasn’t good enough last year, he will struggle this year in a tougher heat. He should Top 10, as he is solid, but he will not get a podium.
Pinot 100/1. I think this boy is overpriced. He looked very good last year in the mountains, and he won’t suffer due to his ITT as much as he did last year. He appears to have trained on, and I think we can expect big things from him given a normal level of improvement.
Hesjedal 150/1. Similar concerns to Wiggo, but he is ten times the price. I will read with interest what the press and the team says about his “numbers” coming into the race, and may back him for Top 10.
Rolland 150/1. Stranger things have happened than Rolland getting a podium spot. Lots of question marks about him, but I have a sneaky feeling about him, too. He will likely be one of the guys I back for Top 10, once the market is formed.
There are a few other outsiders for the Top 10, such as de Gendt, Talansky, Dan Martin, Basso, Uran, Henao, Fuglsgang and Voeckler, but I oppose them for various reasons.
Here is my idea of the Tour GC contenders in order of betting.
Froome 7/5. This guy is a worthy favourite, given how good he has looked this year, how he is Number 1 in the best GC team, and given the form of Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. He is not my idea of a bet though, as the opposition is very deep, and he has yet to get over the line in a Grand Tour.
Contador 5/2. I think Alberto is far too short, given how he has performed this year so far. Sure, he has the pedigree, but his performance in the Basque Country, Tirreno-Adriatico and even Oman do not look good enough in the context of this Tour. Sure, he might have been sandbagging for the year, and you never know when cyclists can generate “form”, but for me, he has a moderate chance.
Wiggins 14/1. Sir Bradley was very disappointing in Italy. Sir Bradley is not his team’s nominated leader. Sir Bradley does not have a course to suit him. Sir Bradley has too many negative marks to consider backing him.
Rodriquez 16/1. I thought this guy was nailed on for a Grand Tour this year, but that was when I thought he would do Italy and Spain again. The competition looks very strong, and he has been a touch short of his best this spring. That said, he looked the best rider in last year’s Vuelta, and he is sure to be aiming his season, and his strong team directly at this race. I think he is a great bet to place, and I would like to see odds on him for Top 5 or Top 6 closer to the race (as I think he is a banker for that). But his time trial will likely prevent him from winning a GT again.
Schleck 25/1. It will be a very interesting race if this dude is back on form. The course suits him, with the small amount of Flat ITT kilometres, and the heavy (for the Tour) emphasis on climbing. But his form this year is very bad. He is certainly aiming for a peak this July, but will that peak be back to his best, or will it be good enough to finish a 3week Tour hours down? I don’t know, so no bet.
Van Garderen 33/1. He was good last year, and looks to be in good form. Finished very close in San Luis, Paris-Nice, the Criterium International and won the Tour of California. I think he will struggle when the top dogs come to the last 2-3km on Ventoux, l’Alpe and Semnoz. And his time trialling is solid, but there are not enough km of time trialling for it to become a factor to swing yellow in his favour.
Valverde 33/1. This is where it gets interesting. Valverde was going very well when he fell in Catalunya, and he has been going very solidly ever since. He looked to me like he was well able to cope with Froome, Contador and Rodriguez in Spain last year, but he suffered for losing the minute in an earlier stage and didn’t have the poke to get back. I would think he was a great bet each way, if there wasn’t a certain teammate to spoil things.
Quintana 33/1. Quintana looked good in Catalunya, won a mountain stage in the Dauphiné last year and was excellent as a domestique for Valverde in last year’s Vuelta. But it was his performance in the Basque country that really stood out. He survived rain, wind, steep finishes and a deep field to remain in contention until the last day. And then he blew Richie Porte out of the water in the last ITT. I think he is my bet, but I am not sure what Movistar’s tactics will be, so I will be reading media with interest in the next few weeks.
Evans 33/1. He was good in the Giro, but faded in the last week. I find it hard to think he will be good enough this summer, and not many Giro placed horses go on to win the Tour. He has the wrong profile, is too old, and BMC would be better served supporting Tejay van Garderen.
Nibali 40/1. Won’t ride.
Porte 66/1. Will be a support rider.
Van den Broeck 66/1. If he wasn’t good enough last year, he will struggle this year in a tougher heat. He should Top 10, as he is solid, but he will not get a podium.
Pinot 100/1. I think this boy is overpriced. He looked very good last year in the mountains, and he won’t suffer due to his ITT as much as he did last year. He appears to have trained on, and I think we can expect big things from him given a normal level of improvement.
Hesjedal 150/1. Similar concerns to Wiggo, but he is ten times the price. I will read with interest what the press and the team says about his “numbers” coming into the race, and may back him for Top 10.
Rolland 150/1. Stranger things have happened than Rolland getting a podium spot. Lots of question marks about him, but I have a sneaky feeling about him, too. He will likely be one of the guys I back for Top 10, once the market is formed.
There are a few other outsiders for the Top 10, such as de Gendt, Talansky, Dan Martin, Basso, Uran, Henao, Fuglsgang and Voeckler, but I oppose them for various reasons.
airstream said:That's a hilarious avalanche of thoughts. Wiggins is disliked so strongly that people even are ready to support Froome, but when it comes to Froome and Contador, everyone 'remembers' Froome is from Sky and hence it's necessary to support anyone but him.
No but i can register trolls.
Found one.
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