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Tour de France Who will win the 2023 Tour De France GC? Rest Day Poll 2

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Who will win the Tour

  • Total voters
    151
Pantani_lives

Pantani_lives

May 3, 2010
4,328
4,067
21,180
I hope Pogacar, but I'm less confident than a week ago, He's made huge efforts in the past days with little reward. He'll need to ride the ITT of his life and be very sly. Even if he manages to take yellow on Tuesday there's the danger of cracking on the Col de la Loze, the kind of long climb at high altitude where he can be vulnerable. I don't think the yellow jersey will change shoulders after Wednesday.

Pogacar 50.001%
Vingegaard 49.998%
Kuss 0.001%
 
N

Nick2413

Dec 2, 2020
2,037
2,933
11,180
Gigs_98 said:
I don't get why people are still pointing at the Col de la Loze as Pogacars big weakpoint. Yeah he wasn't great there in 2020, but he was probably worse a day later on a low altitude, steep and short climb. People only fixate on the Col de la Loze result because that actually amounted to a time loss.

In this Tour so far the mountain stages Vingegaard looked the best on were the Laruns stage and today, while Pogacar looked a bit better on Puy de Dome, the Grand Colombier, the Joux Plane and the Tourmalet stage. The whole Col de la Loze narrative formed based on the assumption that Vingegaard is better on longer climbs, higher altitude and generally harder stages. So that's literally the exact opposite of how this Tour has played out so far. Looking at this Tour alone one should really predict the Col de la Loze stage to be the one favoring Pogacar and the Vosges stage to favor Vingegaard. I don't think that's the correct takeaway either. I think the correct takaway is that the kind of mountain stage really doesn't matter a lot and it's only about who has the best legs.
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I agree this Tour has been a bit backwards, but I think the overall heft of the data still points toward Loze favoring Pogacar less than other types of stages. It’s the only type of stage I’ve never really seen him be dominant on. But also this Tour seems to be more of a roll of the dice as you say about legs, so I still picked him.
 
Barnacle Bill

Barnacle Bill

Sep 22, 2020
880
1,766
7,180
My guestimates are 50% Vingegaard, 49% Pogacar, 1% Rodriguez.
Voted C-Rod, clearly fate is smiling on him.

Incredible that the top 2 are so evenly matched, surely one has to have a weak moment in the coming days but regardless of the outcome I'm just glad they're both in the race or it would have been a procession.
 
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S

Summoned

Apr 16, 2017
265
67
9,130
I was thinking about what to expect for the stage to Le Markstein during today’s stage, and a possibility occurred to me. If the GC is still competitive at that point, how the stage is raced could be affected by the KOM battle, if Ciccone or a non-GC rider is still contesting it. It is sort of hazy, but anyone going for KOM would have to be in a break, as they cannot ride with a GC contender who could overtake them at the top of a climb, or get enough points to keep it tight until the last climb, where the GC would make dropping a non-GC rider exceedingly likely. So the tactics for Vingegard and Pogacar could result in their teams burning early for reasons other than GC tactics, assuming they want their team to ride on the front for the whole stage. A lot of assumptions and hypotheticals there, but it seemed like an intriguing possibility.
 
B

Bolder

Jun 25, 2015
5,231
5,231
23,180
Gigs_98 said:
I don't get why people are still pointing at the Col de la Loze as Pogacars big weakpoint. Yeah he wasn't great there in 2020, but he was probably worse a day later on a low altitude, steep and short climb. People only fixate on the Col de la Loze result because that actually amounted to a time loss.

In this Tour so far the mountain stages Vingegaard looked the best on were the Laruns stage and today, while Pogacar looked a bit better on Puy de Dome, the Grand Colombier, the Joux Plane and the Tourmalet stage. The whole Col de la Loze narrative formed based on the assumption that Vingegaard is better on longer climbs, higher altitude and generally harder stages. So that's literally the exact opposite of how this Tour has played out so far. Looking at this Tour alone one should really predict the Col de la Loze stage to be the one favoring Pogacar and the Vosges stage to favor Vingegaard. I don't think that's the correct takeaway either. I think the correct takaway is that the kind of mountain stage really doesn't matter a lot and it's only about who has the best legs.
Click to expand...
Honestly the Tour is exactly where I thought it would be at this stage. I gave Vingegaard a slight edge over Pogacar, and I thought Loze would be the best chance for him to gain significant time because of the sheer magnitude of the climb. Of course I had no idea how we'd get to this point, but if you told me that they'd be a few seconds apart ahead of the TT, and 5 minutes ahead of their closest competition it would be no surprise at all.
 
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B

Big Doopie

BANNED
Oct 6, 2009
4,345
3,988
21,180
Izzyeviel said:
Remember last year when we all said that was the best tour we've ever seen?

How wrong we were. No-one know's what the 3rd week will bring, but that is to quote Adam Blythe 'brilliant'

So in summary, I think the real winners are the fans.
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last year was very good.

so far, imo, this has been slightly better. but still needs an epic granon stage.

however, "best tour we've ever seen"? I guess that depends on how old you are. cuz nothing compares to 1989, not even close. and 1975 was also better. just sayin'. :cool:

and the above only goes to show that you do not need 10 riders within a minute to make things exciting. you really just need two super champions who are very equal or whose best talents are on different terrains:

LeMond vs. Fignon
Merckx vs. Thevenet
Pog vs. Vingo
 
Last edited:
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J

Jeppeb

Jul 12, 2022
24
15
1,610
Col de la loze is tailor made for Vingegaard, the first real mountain to go beyond 2000m which is where Vinge excels. I have no doubt in my mind that he can and will (if needed depending on the tt) drop Pogacar.
Hvem er det der vinder touren i år - Vingegaard!
 
Valv.Piti

Valv.Piti

Aug 3, 2015
21,974
9,390
28,180
Still think 2022 was better. I like racing when differences are bigger at the top (but still competitive) since Pogacar needed to go longer and try more stuff last year. Also, I think the transitional stages were better and there were no boring/no break sprints stages outside of Denmark. Thats really a HUGE plus on the racing side as there were reason to watch each and every stage last year. This year, not so much - I count 4 very pointless stages so far where no racing found place outside the last 10 km.

But ofc, this has the potential to be better. We need Pog to light up the TT so Jonas needs to go bananas on Loze. And the stage in the Vosges could be a real gem and one for the history books
 
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Tonton

Tonton

May 17, 2013
7,486
2,258
20,680
I voted Other/ Pinot. He's got them in the perfect spot. Twenty minutes down, the profile of a serial killer. Hiding in the shadows...in the bag (if it gets fixed: there was a hole in it today)...

Tadej Pogacar is my favorite: He's everything. The ITT is a big question-mark. Vingo is really good. But I think that Pog is slightly better, the only one who can beat Remco in the exercise. Tadej is Teddy Merckx...and once Pogacar get's the jersey, sayonara...
 
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K

Kaptain Kool

Dec 23, 2019
860
1,223
8,180
Toss up but voted Pogacar out of preference. To be honest, I wouldn't mind a Vingegaard win either just for all of the takes that Pogacar would have won if UAE wasn't so focused on getting 2 riders on the podium.
The biggest shame is that 4 out of the last 6 stages aren't even worth watching.
 
C

ChewbaccaDefense

Nov 5, 2013
4,748
4,101
21,180
Devil's Elbow said:
Think Pogacar narrowly flips the lead in the TT and then it will be hard for them to finish together in the Loze stage, so that is still probably the decisive day. Still leaning towards Pogacar, Vingegaard not being able to get a gap since Marie Blanque doesn't bode well for him.
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It just seems like Pogacar has a slight advantage, and enough of one that I think the TT may be decisive.

I want Vingegaard to win, but I think Pog edges him.
 
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Rechtschreibfehler

Rechtschreibfehler

Mar 19, 2009
2,747
2,311
14,680
Ilmaestro99 said:
There is not even a conceivable scenario in which one of pogagar or vengegard doesn't win, unless they both abandon the race. So dull, it's hard to care. Preueba villafranca is on Tuesday 25th July looking forward to it.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I understand. You think it's dull because there are two guys within 10 seconds on Top who noone else will beat? If so: how did you survive Sky/Ineos? Or Lance?
 
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
13,501
9,013
28,180
Valv.Piti said:
Still think 2022 was better. I like racing when differences are bigger at the top (but still competitive) since Pogacar needed to go longer and try more stuff last year. Also, I think the transitional stages were better and there were no boring/no break sprints stages outside of Denmark. Thats really a HUGE plus on the racing side as there were reason to watch each and every stage last year. This year, not so much - I count 4 very pointless stages so far where no racing found place outside the last 10 km.

But ofc, this has the potential to be better. We need Pog to light up the TT so Jonas needs to go bananas on Loze. And the stage in the Vosges could be a real gem and one for the history books
Click to expand...
Let's wait for the last week though. I think it's fair to say both of them were very careful not to blow themselves up this week, leading to somewhat cautious racing. One of them will have to stop doing so on Tuesday.
 
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