Pogacar got a kicking on the Marie Blanque, but turned the tables already the next day. To me the all important retrospective question is what enabled this fairly unexpected and immediate reversal. Only parts of what I find relevant can be discussed here.
Was MB about Pog's cobwebs due to lack of racing? Perhaps, but OTOH he was firing on all cylinders from day one during shorter efforts. Was Jumbo's greed the driver of the comeback? This sure enabled Pog to strike back, but he also needed better legs than Vingo to do that. The day before he lacked what Vingo had. Was it day to day form fluctuations? Quite possible.
Week 2 Pogacar was on the drivers seat. In my opinion, however, his ability to put Vingo to the sword trended downwards during the week. Did fatigue creep up to him more than Vingo? Perhaps, he did lose some base training for sure. Or did he simply measure his efforts, like yesterday, both to gauge Vingo and save bullets for the TT? This is plausible too.
Moving forward, the important question is how their form trajectories evolve. If week 2 developments were driven by how the two fatigue, Pog may not have the base to peak properly as planned. His base level is high, of course, but the prep was not optimal. If tactics drove the developments, Pog will have the potential to peak next week. Unless of course tactics coincides with the form curve, and he has already expended some of the ammo required. After the reversal, my expectation was to Pog's form would continue to build throughout the week more than it did. That said, Pogacar appears very confident.
The other side of the coin is did Vingo improve or just weaken a bit less? Very hard to say. But in relative terms he did not weaken. In absolute terms they both are Pantani 1997 level. What I find odd is that vingo appears surprisingly tranquillo - as if he has it in the bag, despite only having a slender lead and losing time all week. Don't know if it is foolhardy confidence or what.
Teams and TT equipment will also be relevant, but I am too lazy and pedestrian to analyse them.
So, prediction time.
Scenario 1: Pog's limited base allows for one more monster performance in the TT. He takes the yellow and leads by 15-20sec going to the Loze stage. Jumbo rides like maniacs from the go, Vingo goes long on the Loze and drops Pog as his base caves in. Vingo wins the tour.
Scenario 2: Pog has enough base, peaks and takes the TT by 20-30sec. On the Loze he either defends succesfully to stalemate or drops Vingo there, thus demolishing the hypothesis that altitude after hard stages is his kryptonite. Pog wins the tour.
If there is one thing I believe in in endurance sports it's base, so I'll bite the bullet and go with scenario 1.
People will know that I support anyone but Pog to win, mainly because I don't want anyone to win it all. It's insulting to intelligence in the age of specialisation (division of labor).
But assume the main protagonists roles were reversed. That is, Vingo lacks some base due to missed training and we witnessed a similar development of racing performances with reversed roles -- I would not blink an eye saying that Pog takes the tour.
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