Who will win the Giro 100?

[SafeBet]

Time for a proper poll.
Very deep field so I had to exclude some very good riders (Mollema, Pozzovivo, TJVG). I listed the riders with the best odds.

 

[SafeBet]

Not sure how to make the poll work. Anybody keen on reminding me?

 

[rhubroma]

Nairo.

 

[SafeBet]

Poll now working!

 

[Netserk]

Nibali, with the decisive move on Stelvio.

 

[DFA123]

I think only crashes can stop Quintana.

 

[Jspear]

Quintana. I agree only a crash or a really bad mechanical could mess him up.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Nibali, because he always finds a way to win one way or another

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Pinot, who I think will just about win it with his TT'ing

Think Quintana will DNF, Nibali will struggle, Landa has not shown winning potential along with the rest and I've just cooked a lovely Thai green chicken curry with brown rice for dinner, yum! yum!

 

[AlexNYC]

Quintana is the overwhelming favorite, but he could be vulnerable on stages 4, 9, and 10 depending on how quickly he gains form. If it takes him until the last week to be at his best and one of the other favorites kills it on these 3 stages, it could be enough to beat him. I don't think it's going to happen though.

 

[Red Rick]

Karma will win.

Krushweak for pink

 

[PremierAndrew]

If Kruijswijk turns up in similar shape to last year, he could definitely end up winning if Quintana's form is a bit undercooked with a view to the Tour

 

[Akuryo]

Obviously Bob Jungels ... what a question

 

[Brullnux]

A lot of people giving the relatively unproven Pinot a good chance to win.

 

[Scarponi]

Have any of these riders ever been close to Quintana?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

A lot of people giving the relatively unproven Pinot a good chance to win.

This. Meanwhile people say Landa doesn't have a good chance because the last time he showed potential to win a gt was in 2015. Last time Pinot was in the top ten of a gt was in 2014 btw

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Have any of these riders ever been close to Quintana?

Yates was pretty close in the Tour last year (and yet surprisingly he has very little backing in the poll - needs to get himself a few more fanboys!) I guess that was the worst we've seen Quintana at a GT he is peaking for since he burst onto the scene though, so difficult to read too much into it.

 

[movingtarget]

Quintana should win but I would also like to see Stephen K on the podium after what happened last year.

 

[Nirvana]

I'd say Pinot for these reasons:

Quintana has the Tour in his mind and probably isn't at 100%.
Nibali could win due to his curse only if in the final stages will have one or two in front of him but i think this year will be more because he is declining.
Kruijswijk crashed in Yorkshire and dind't show anything that suggest he'll have the form of his life like last year.
Thomas based on the form showed could be up for the win but he'll crack somewhere.
Doumulin will have a bad day like in the Vuelta two years ago and will be sufficient to take him out the podium.
Zakarain will crash out somewhere.
Landa will be superdom for Thomas and if he'll be stronger in Sky are going to realize that too late.

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted for Quintana but I don't think he is the outstanding favorite. The fact that he goes for the double gives me hope that he won't have absolute top shape for 3 weeks. That would give Nibali, Pinot, SK, Landa,... a chance. I actually really hope that Quintana won't already lead by two minutes after Blockhaus because otherwise this giro could be extremely exciting. There are guys like Dumoulin and Thomas who could do extremely well in the first two weeks but are big uncertainty factors in the super hard 3rd week where they could completely crack any time. Meanwhile nobody else has really looked so impressive this season that one could expect him to completely dominate. So if Quintana isn't absolutely flying I expect a great race.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I'd say Pinot for these reasons:

Quintana has the Tour in his mind and probably isn't at 100%.
Nibali could win due to his curse only if in the final stages will have one or two in front of him but i think this year will be more because he is declining.
Kruijswijk crashed in Yorkshire and dind't show anything that suggest he'll have the form of his life like last year.
Thomas based on the form showed could be up for the win but he'll crack somewhere.
Doumulin will have a bad day like in the Vuelta two years ago and will be sufficient to take him out the podium.
Zakarain will crash out somewhere.
Landa will be superdom for Thomas and if he'll be stronger in Sky are going to realize that too late.

How far below 100% do you think Quintana will have to be to be beaten by Pinot or Thomas? Genuine question, btw. Do you think the form he showed in 2016 TdF would be bad enough to let someone else win? Or would he have to be as bad as 2015 Vuelta?

 

[Netserk]

For sure he won't win if he is as bad as in the Tour last year.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

For sure he won't win if he is as bad as in the Tour last year.

I agree, but I don't think Pinot or Thomas could beat him even with that form. Nibali, and possibly Landa or Kruijswijk, on the other hand...

 

[Carols]

Vincenzo for Giro #3 and GT #5!

 

[RedheadDane]

I'll come back and tell you in three weeks. Or... would that be considered cheating?