Who will win the Giro 100?

[tobydawq]

Re:

I'll come back and tell you in three weeks. Or... would that be considered cheating?

Well, one year minus three weeks ago you would probably have guessed wrong

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

For sure he won't win if he is as bad as in the Tour last year.

And what do you reckon the chances of him turning up to the Giro in that shape?

Edit: Pinot at 14%... hm. Tonton-hype I suppose.

 

[Netserk]

Don't know, not very much. 10-20%

 

[Laplaz]

How much time will Nairo lose to Nibali in the 2 TT? I think about 3 minutes... so Nibali ftw!

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

For sure he won't win if he is as bad as in the Tour last year.

And what do you reckon the chances of him turning up to the Giro in that shape?

Edit: Pinot at 14%... hm. Tonton-hype I suppose.

Tonton has a big influence in this forum :surprised:

 

[silvergrenade]

What about Adam Yates? Its as if people have forgotten his ride in the Alps and the Pyrenees last year.
Quintana FTW!
Yates and Landa to Podium.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Have any of these riders ever been close to Quintana?

Yates last year was very close to beating Quintana. Until Stage 20 of the Vuelta 2015, Dumoulin was ahead of Quintana. Nibali and Quintana's paths have only crossed once in GTs, and the rest have a similar story.

 

[silvergrenade]

Also, TJ. I know about his 3 week issues but he looked very very good at Romandie.(TT as well as Climbing)
I think he will be up there.
He has shown much better form leading upto the Giro than most.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re:

Nibali, with the decisive move on Stelvio.

Nibali dropping Quintana on the Stelvio descent, then catching his teammates while Quintana is isolated between Nibali Gr. and Landa/Kruiswijk Group. Then Quintana loses time on Umbrail as well because he pushed too much on the flat part. Then Nibali incresing the gap even more on the descent of Umbrail. It would be epic

Probably we will witness a very boring Giro and Quintana will win easily.

 

[Rollthedice]

If Nibali is not declining and has hit the best possible shape just in time, he is the only one capable of beating Nairo, which I hope will happen. I think he will play defensive until the last week.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Nibali, with the decisive move on Stelvio.

Nibali dropping Quintana on the Stelvio descent, then catching his teammates while Quintana is isolated between Nibali Gr. and Landa/Kruiswijk Group. Then Quintana loses time on Umbrail as well because he pushed too much on the flat part. Then Nibali incresing the gap even more on the descent of Umbrail

No, you are forgetting everybody is scared because of the length and difficulty of the stage, the so-called queen stage will not deliver as usual and they will look at each other and try a few digs on the top of Umbrrail (Oropa is much better, much more explosive stage, uncontrollable really compared to this long stage that everybody is scared of)

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

If Nibali is not declining and has hit the best possible shape just in time, he is the only one capable of beating Nairo, which I hope will happen. I think he will play defensive until the last week.

If NIbali goes back to his greatest glory days I think he'd beat Quintana. He'd have a slight disadvantage to the best Quintana, if at all, and that's if Quintana shows up in top form, and then Nibali has the TTs and all the other options to play with.


But I really doubt that he will.

It does point in his favour that in every big race he's really targeted since 2014 he's reached a really good level at some point

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

Nibali, with the decisive move on Stelvio.

Nibali dropping Quintana on the Stelvio descent, then catching his teammates while Quintana is isolated between Nibali Gr. and Landa/Kruiswijk Group. Then Quintana loses time on Umbrail as well because he pushed too much on the flat part. Then Nibali incresing the gap even more on the descent of Umbrail

No, you are forgetting everybody is scared because of the length and difficulty of the stage, the so-called queen stage will not deliver as usual and they will look at each other and try a few digs on the top of Umbrrail (Oropa is much better, much more explosive stage, uncontrollable really compared to this long stage that everybody is scared of)

It was a wishful thinking. Probably no action on Stelvio and Quintana either controlling or dropping everyone on Umbrail.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

I'd say Pinot for these reasons:

Quintana has the Tour in his mind and probably isn't at 100%.
Nibali could win due to his curse only if in the final stages will have one or two in front of him but i think this year will be more because he is declining.
Kruijswijk crashed in Yorkshire and dind't show anything that suggest he'll have the form of his life like last year.
Thomas based on the form showed could be up for the win but he'll crack somewhere.
Doumulin will have a bad day like in the Vuelta two years ago and will be sufficient to take him out the podium.
Zakarain will crash out somewhere.
Landa will be superdom for Thomas and if he'll be stronger in Sky are going to realize that too late.

How far below 100% do you think Quintana will have to be to be beaten by Pinot or Thomas? Genuine question, btw. Do you think the form he showed in 2016 TdF would be bad enough to let someone else win? Or would he have to be as bad as 2015 Vuelta?

Considering that he was beaten by Bardet, and i don't think that Bardet is stronger than Pinot in top shape, last year Tour shape could be enough to be beaten by Pinot, obviously if the frenchman is at his best and does't have problems/crashes during the race.
Thomas showed at Trentino that he's at a level similar to Pinot one and probably he's a bit stronger in TT but i will be very surprised if he will survive till the end without cracking.

 

[mikii4567]

I'm saying Pinot. Quintana has the Tour in mind, which is where he'd want to be in better form, Nibali isn't really in form (I mean, Croatia isn't really representative, but still...) and the Frenchman has decent climbing skills which he'd like to show at the Giro. Plus good TT skills.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Im just trolling you man, it will be a great stage, cant wait.

 

[Nirvana]

The big problem of Stelvio it's not the race but if can be raced.
With 2014 like condition will be cancelled this time because of EWP.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I'd say Pinot for these reasons:

Quintana has the Tour in his mind and probably isn't at 100%.
Nibali could win due to his curse only if in the final stages will have one or two in front of him but i think this year will be more because he is declining.
Kruijswijk crashed in Yorkshire and dind't show anything that suggest he'll have the form of his life like last year.
Thomas based on the form showed could be up for the win but he'll crack somewhere.
Doumulin will have a bad day like in the Vuelta two years ago and will be sufficient to take him out the podium.
Zakarain will crash out somewhere.
Landa will be superdom for Thomas and if he'll be stronger in Sky are going to realize that too late.

That Kruijswijk hasn't shown anything is no argument. I suggest you go and look back his results before the Giro in the seasons 2016, 2015, 2011.

Nothing special either. Maybe even slightly worse in those years, as he had a top 10 in Catalunya at least this year.

So, pre-season races are no indicator for Kruijswijk's Giro form.
Not that He will win, Quintana is far too strong anyway.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re:

Im just trolling you man, it will be a great stage, cant wait.

Depends on Nibali and Landa about an attack on Stelvio. Quintana will probably be in the maglia rosa and he will wait till the bottom of Umbrail at least.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Im just trolling you man, it will be a great stage, cant wait.

Depends on Nibali and Landa about an attack on Stelvio. Quintana will probably be in the maglia rosa and he will wait till the bottom of Umbrail at least.

Well I think chances are they will wait to the bottom of Umbrailpass, but as long as it has been selective up until that point and they go from the bottom, all is good for me. Stelvio from that side isn't THAT hard anyways.

 

[Cookster15]

Quintana the obvious favourite but after Nibali coming from nowhere to win last year you never know. Can't see any of the others listed challenging for the win although if Kruijswijk can bring the same form and stay on his bike that would be awesome.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

Im just trolling you man, it will be a great stage, cant wait.

Depends on Nibali and Landa about an attack on Stelvio. Quintana will probably be in the maglia rosa and he will wait till the bottom of Umbrail at least.

Well I think chances are they will wait to the bottom of Umbrailpass, but as long as it has been selective up until that point and they go from the bottom, all is good for me. Stelvio from that side isn't THAT hard anyways.

What I am fearing is Quintana having a 2-3 min advantage and everyone looking at each other.

 

[AlexNYC]

Anyone hoping to peak during the last week is a sure bet to lose to Quintana. Nairo's strategy is to reach near peak condition during the last week and to carry that form all the way to the Tour; so the time to attack him is during the first 2 weeks when he will be at his most vulnerable. At least that's the only way I can see Quintana being competitive in both races.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

Nibali, with the decisive move on Stelvio.

Nibali dropping Quintana on the Stelvio descent, then catching his teammates while Quintana is isolated between Nibali Gr. and Landa/Kruiswijk Group. Then Quintana loses time on Umbrail as well because he pushed too much on the flat part. Then Nibali incresing the gap even more on the descent of Umbrail

No, you are forgetting everybody is scared because of the length and difficulty of the stage, the so-called queen stage will not deliver as usual and they will look at each other and try a few digs on the top of Umbrrail (Oropa is much better, much more explosive stage, uncontrollable really compared to this long stage that everybody is scared of)

Also I realized this gem only now

 

[Pantani_lives]

My top 20:

1. Nairo Quintana: The time trials might be a problem, but he has a good shape and a strong team.
2. Vincenzo Nibali: I don't know what his shape is like, but you can't overlook him.
3. Steven Kruijswijk: He might be the new Igor Anton; someone who almost wins a GT, then never reaches that level again. Or his day of vengeance might come.
4. Mikel Landa: Crashed out last year, when I saw him as a podium favorite.
5. Ilnur Zakarin: Crashed out last year, when I saw him as a podium favorite.
6. Thibaut Pinot: Nice to see a French rider motivated for the Giro.
7. Adam Yates: Among the best climbers in last year's Tour.
8. Tom Dumoulin: He might take pink in a time trial, but the queen's stage will be hard.
9. Bauke Mollema: Always subtop, usually lacks the consistency for the podium.
10. Geraint Thomas: Not sure if he'll ride for the GC.
11. Domenico Pozzovivo: Always a candidate for a top 10 place.
12. Dario Cataldo: Usually a strong helper, now he might be among the better climbers.
13. Tejay Van Garderen: Nowhere last season, but the time trials suit him and he's still a talent.
14. Pierre Rolland: Finished fourth in his only Giro.
15. Tanel Kangert: If Cataldo fails he's the alternative for Astana.
16. Bob Jungels: The hardest mountain stages might be too much for him.
17. Davide Formolo: Ninth in last year's Vuelta
18. Andrey Amador: Might place as second rider for Movistar.
19. Igor Anton: The old Steven Kruijswijk.
20. Franco Pellizotti: His power was in his hair.