Who will win the Giro d'Italia 2019

[Robert5091]

Heart says Nibs, head says Yates (can out climb both TommyD & Roglic on the longer climbs, has improved TT-ing (and 2 of the 3 TT's he should hold his own) and he & the team have learned from last year).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think it will be really close between Yates and Dumoulin.

Roglic is great but that's the problem, he's been great everywhere which is why I think he will fade here.

Simon Yates had a really low profile build up and learned a lesson. Dumoulin is a master of calculation and being at his best when it matters. I favor Tom because of the ITTs

 

[Red Rick]

For some reason I just don't see Yates.

I feel he was overreaching to gain that time in the Giro last year, and his Vuelta form isn't gonna bring him a win at all in my opinion.

 

[movingtarget]

Dumoulin now has a good track record in grand tours. He's experienced, a strong TT rider and knows how to minimize his losses in the mountains. I think he gets it done from Roglic and possibly Yates. As usual the TT will be the issue for some of the other candidates. Nibali could be pushing for a podium place if he can find his best form. He will be motivated after his last Tour misfortune, being it's his local race and because it will probably be his last chance to podium. How much the weakened team impacts Dumoulin is anyone's guess. Michelton should do a good job for Yates as they did in the Vuelta. I guess Ineos will be riding for stage wins and a top 10. Lopez will probably be the other rider in the mix if he does really well in the mountains. Landa needs to show something. Don't see Majka threatening the podium.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Heart says Nibs, head says Yates (can out climb both TommyD & Roglic on the longer climbs, has improved TT-ing (and 2 of the 3 TT's he should hold his own) and he & the team have learned from last year).

I see along the same lines, Yates/Dumoulin ftw, Roglic can podium, NIbali can hopefully pull a pink bunny off his hat...

 

[Climbing]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Vincenzo, endurance might count for something in a somewhat proper endurance GT (rare material nowadays).

You are understating how hard this Giro will be with those monster distances on some of the hardest days. This is a bit more than proper....

I've been around a very long while and we both know it used to be even harder, compensated by longer ITTs obviously.
Endurance has always been a pivotal part of the sport and I don't understand the late trend of stupidly short stages.
That was my point.

 

[JosephK]

I voted with my head and not my heart. I would be happy if Dumoulin, Roglic, or Nibali wins it, but I expect Simon Yates to dominate the hard stages and take the win. He did this at the Vuelta, so . . . no reason to expect a repeat of last year's week-3 Giro fade. As for the ITTs, I think he'll be much better than many expect.

 

[HelloDolly]

I wish some harder climbs came earlier to tire out some of the GC men for Nibali
I think the first week is too easy

Roglic & Yates have speed and climbing ability.The only way they can be defeated is by some sort of attrition which means hard hard racing from the off. After last year MS will not go all out and Roglic too will bide his time ..Dumoulin & Nibali will have to try and make the race hard as will Landa to have any chance ...Either NIbali or Dumoulin can win on the 2nd last or final stage but only if Yates nd Roglic have left alot on the road by then

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Vincenzo, endurance might count for something in a somewhat proper endurance GT (rare material nowadays).

You are understating how hard this Giro will be with those monster distances on some of the hardest days. This is a bit more than proper....

I've been around a very long while and we both know it used to be even harder, compensated by longer ITTs obviously.
Endurance has always been a pivotal part of the sport and I don't understand the late trend of stupidly short stages.
That was my point.

The idea is to have more drama in the final days. Some short stages are good, others don't change the race much. It seems that the super long mountain stages and TTs which never used to be seen as super long are now a relic of the past. A few longer stages wouldn't hurt now and then but long TTs are probably gone for good for better or worse. The days of the long mountain solo breakaway re Virenque or Chiappucci seem a long time ago now. ASO has the TV audience firmly on it's mind now but does anyone watch long flat stages end to end now ?

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Vincenzo, endurance might count for something in a somewhat proper endurance GT (rare material nowadays).

You are understating how hard this Giro will be with those monster distances on some of the hardest days. This is a bit more than proper....

I've been around a very long while and we both know it used to be even harder, compensated by longer ITTs obviously.
Endurance has always been a pivotal part of the sport and I don't understand the late trend of stupidly short stages.
That was my point.

The idea is to have more drama in the final days. Some short stages are good, others don't change the race much. It seems that the super long mountain stages and TTs which never used to be seen as super long are now a relic of the past. A few longer stages wouldn't hurt now and then but long TTs are probably gone for good for better or worse. The days of the long mountain solo breakaway re Virenque or Chiappucci seem a long time ago now. ASO has the TV audience firmly on it's mind now but does anyone watch long flat stages end to end now ?

I do.
I find cycling broadcast being much more than an ordinary sports event coverage.

 

[Scarponi]

Re: Re:

Yeah, the poll doesn't work. But don't worry. They NEVER work. These polls must use the most complicated system imaginable...

Fortunately, that won't prevent Roglic from winning this race.

I probably did something wrong but don't what!!!

I am not a millennial so these type of things go over my head!

Forums were around before most Millennials were born

 

[42x16ss]

I voted "other" before checking if Fuglsang is even starting :lol:

It's hard to see the winner coming from anyone other than the first six listed in the poll, but Roglic and Yates really stand out for me so far this year. Hoping for Roglic's sake he hasn't gone too deep already.

Also, O'Connor to lift his game over last year, and ride a solid top 10.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Vincenzo, endurance might count for something in a somewhat proper endurance GT (rare material nowadays).

You are understating how hard this Giro will be with those monster distances on some of the hardest days. This is a bit more than proper....

I've been around a very long while and we both know it used to be even harder, compensated by longer ITTs obviously.
Endurance has always been a pivotal part of the sport and I don't understand the late trend of stupidly short stages.
That was my point.

The idea is to have more drama in the final days. Some short stages are good, others don't change the race much. It seems that the super long mountain stages and TTs which never used to be seen as super long are now a relic of the past. A few longer stages wouldn't hurt now and then but long TTs are probably gone for good for better or worse. The days of the long mountain solo breakaway re Virenque or Chiappucci seem a long time ago now. ASO has the TV audience firmly on it's mind now but does anyone watch long flat stages end to end now ?

We don't. Those long flat sprint stages we'll fast forward the DVR to the last 10 to 20 K and watch from there.

 

[Robert5091]

There are some small gems on long flat stages, like Offredo's face in TdF when he realized he was the only one going to be in the break for 200 km. "f**k that!" :lol:

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Vincenzo, endurance might count for something in a somewhat proper endurance GT (rare material nowadays).

You are understating how hard this Giro will be with those monster distances on some of the hardest days. This is a bit more than proper....

I've been around a very long while and we both know it used to be even harder, compensated by longer ITTs obviously.
Endurance has always been a pivotal part of the sport and I don't understand the late trend of stupidly short stages.
That was my point.

Point taken. Some GTs, especially a few decades ago, were obviously harder endurance wise. But in this context this is probably the hardest it get and we should applaud that IMO

 

[Robert5091]

9 stages over 200 km (plus one at 194 km) - it must be a while since that happened.

 

[Bolder]

Head says Dumoulin, so that's who I chose. I.E., if I were betting my own money, I think it's Tom's to lose.

However, I'll be hoping for Nibali to take it. Or a first time GT winner -- Roglic? I also wouldn't be disappointed if Landa got has act together and won.

 

[Cookster15]

Head:
****Roglic.
*** Dumoulin
**Yates, Nibali

Heart:
****Nibali
***Dumoulin
**Roglic

Landa? I have no idea what shape he will be in so left him out.

I suppose those monster stages would suit Nibali but hard to tell with ageing riders. No doubt I'll be completely wrong on all of the above.

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Vincenzo, endurance might count for something in a somewhat proper endurance GT (rare material nowadays).

You are understating how hard this Giro will be with those monster distances on some of the hardest days. This is a bit more than proper....

I've been around a very long while and we both know it used to be even harder, compensated by longer ITTs obviously.
Endurance has always been a pivotal part of the sport and I don't understand the late trend of stupidly short stages.
That was my point.

Point taken. Some GTs, especially a few decades ago, were obviously harder endurance wise. But in this context this is probably the hardest it get and we should applaud that IMO

According to Eshnar's preview the total length is pushing the UCI limits. However, I disagree that length in and of itself is an indicator of difficulty.

One thing about those short mountain stages is that they're "raced" almost from the gun, whereas on a 200 km long mountain stage only the last 30 km -- or in extreme MTF's, the last 10 -- seem to be in play. So I'd argue that you have more actual racing, at least among the favorites, on a shorter stage.

 

[Googolplex]

If a typical "long and hard" mountain stage, especially in Tour, is barely 200 km long and is most often actually a short mountain stage with 100 km flat lead in, it's quite easy to see why the stages with the lead in removed may occasinally work better. If we compare proper long and hard stages with those mountain sprints, I think it is probably the opposite. But the best is probably a mixture of both.

 

[JosephK]

Re:

I voted "other" before checking if Fuglsang is even starting :lol:

It's hard to see the winner coming from anyone other than the first six listed in the poll, but Roglic and Yates really stand out for me so far this year. Hoping for Roglic's sake he hasn't gone too deep already.

Also, O'Connor to lift his game over last year, and ride a solid top 10.

I might have to amend my original vote for Yates (from the head, not heart) and consider voting "Other" for Tao Geoghegan Hart from Ineos, based on the fact that he, too, is a Brit and has the added bonus of an Ineos/Sky pedigree. So maybe it's time for another "surprise." :lol:

 

[Max Rockatansky]

9 stages over 200 km (plus one at 194 km) - it must be a while since that happened.

9 in 2011, 2010, 2005.
11 in 1997.

 

[Carols]

Vincenzo Nibali's last blaze of Glory in a GT!

 

[Singer01]

Voted Dumoulin but I go back and forth between him and Yates, if both have decent luck, no sickness/crashes (big if) I don't see anyone else having a chance.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Voted Dumoulin but I go back and forth between him and Yates, if both have decent luck, no sickness/crashes (big if) I don't see anyone else having a chance.

Really? Roglic doesn't have a chance?

I get people saying there may be bigger favourites than him but that he doesn't have a chance is just not true.