Who will win the green jersey in the Tour de France?

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Another factor Mr Froome kindly reminded me of just now if the tiering of stages.

Most of the stages where Sagan has an edge now receive fewer points - its only sprint stages left now getting 45 points.

 

[Froome19]

Unless Goss can better 3rd in a sprint he hasn't a prayer and the leaderboard will make his efforts at intermediates look silly, whether he wants to stop or not.

And I don't really see him bettering 3rd as often as he does worse than it.

If Cavendish pulls out, Rojas works for Valverde and ends up anonymous in the flat sprints and Greipel isnt going for it as you correctly said, then who else would beat Goss asides from Sagan?

On the evidence of today's stage he can pick up more points in the flat sprints then Sagan and likewise concerning the intermediates so I would certainly say he has a chance..

 

[greenedge]

Now we know that he failed at madison race at the Olympics,

I thought it was Wiggins who failed their- not Cav

 

[Swabian Lass]

I thought it was Wiggins who failed their- not Cav

Yeah, Wiggins admitted it. Said he'd been too tired after winning however many golds he took there. Caused a rift between the two which they claim has been resolved now and they're all pally, pally at Sky, but who knows?

The Olympics are unfinished business for Cavendish, I think that there's a high chance he won't complete the three weeks this year, so I think Sagan is a strong possibility for green. Not a certainty, though. It's his first Tour and we don't know yet how he'll be in the final week.

 

[element]

I think it will probably be close between Goss, Cavendish, and Sagan. It makes sense for all of them to keep chasing the intermediates. Cavendish put in a astonishing display of positioning and sprinting to take the win yesterday - but the fact is that he had to. He wasn't going that much faster than Greipel, and he would've lost if he hadn't picked exactly the right wheel to come off. He's clearly the best sprinter in terms of speed and positioning ability, but without the train, a lot more chance factors come into play, and Goss/Greipel/Kittel? are fast enough to win in the right circumstances. Should make for a good contest.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Much talk that Sagan takes points on all stages and is thus a shoe in.

Today he gained 28 points on Cav.

Yesterday Cav gained 26 points on Sagan.

So I'm not sure I see how Sagan has yet demonstrated an ability to pick up sufficient points everywhere.

Betfair continues to misprice this market by ever more comical margins.

Cav more likely than not in green by Saturday.

 

[Havetts]

Cav wont reach Paris.

 

[Morbius]

Sagan extremely impressive so far, but I don't see how he can go for every intermediate sprint, flat sprint and uphill sprint between now and the end of the tour. I suspect he will struggle to keep up this pace after the first mountains.

Having said that, I love it when different types of riders go for the points jersey. The same with Hushovd v Cav a couple of years ago, or JRod v Cav in the Giro.

 

[royalpig180]

Yeah, I'm pulling for Sagan, but I don't see this happening for him unless Cav abandons or gets docked for doing something stupid like finishing outside of the time limit in the mountains or taking a tow from a team car.

Either that, or Sagan needs to greatly improve on his performance from stage 2 and pick up some help from the likes of Goss and Greipel along the way. He can't afford to lose 25+ points to Cav on each flat stage.

 

[goggalor]

Should be a good battle, they both seem very motivated. I haven't studied the profiles, but if the sprints are placed after tough climbs Sagan could grab points in the mountains, while Cav obviously will be at least in the top 3 in every sprint stage (no HTC train this year though, so hopefully a few breaks will stay away).

 

[orangerider]

Yeah, I'm pulling for Sagan, but I don't see this happening for him unless Cav abandons or gets docked for doing something stupid like finishing outside of the time limit in the mountains or taking a tow from a team car.

Either that, or Sagan needs to greatly improve on his performance from stage 2 and pick up some help from the likes of Goss and Greipel along the way. He can't afford to lose 25+ points to Cav on each flat stage.

I see just the opposite - the only way Sagan doesn't take green at the end is if he himself crashes. Today's performance with one full second in the sprint (and probably could've taken another second if he didn't soft pedal for his dance). This is a rare combination for a bunch sprint. I see him continue to dominate and only be a notch behind on Cav for the pancake flat stuff. Strange too for Cav not even be in contention today, as this is the kind of course he needs to build up for the Olympics.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Betfair has not moved from yesterday - very odd given the crash - presumably people realised it was mispriced to begin with.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I see just the opposite - the only way Sagan doesn't take green at the end is if he himself crashes. Today's performance with one full second in the sprint (and probably could've taken another second if he didn't soft pedal for his dance). This is a rare combination for a bunch sprint. I see him continue to dominate and only be a notch behind on Cav for the pancake flat stuff. Strange too for Cav not even be in contention today, as this is the kind of course he needs to build up for the Olympics.

If you'd watched that stage, you'd know a crash meant lots of people were out of the stage through no fault of their own.

Same true of today.