Tour de France Who will win the Tour de France 2022?

[Logic-is-your-friend]

* * * * * Pogacar
* * * * -
* * * -
* * -
* Yates, Gaudu, Quintana, Uran, Woods, Bardet, Vingegaard, Vlasov, Martinez, Mas, Thomas, O'Connor, Caruso, Haig, Roglic, Vinokourov

 

[CyclistAbi]

* * * * * Pogacar
* * * * -
* * * -
* * -
* Yates, Gaudu, Quintana, Uran, Woods, Bardet, Vingegaard, Vlasov, Martinez, Mas, Thomas, O'Connor, Caruso, Haig, Roglic, Vinokourov

I would wait with such predictions as due to Covid. Well. Remco might still get a spot!

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I voted for Thomas but it's a real shame that Wiggins isn't starting. He would've gained 15 minutes just on the pave stage.
I'll also through in Ethan Hayter for green. Sure, the guy has only one won WT road race in his life and isn't on the start list. But he looks so effortless on the bike.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I would wait with such predictions as due to Covid. Well. Remco might still get a spot!

* * * * * * * Remco (provisional)
* * * * * * -
* * * * * Pogacar
* * * * -
* * * -
* * -
* Yates, Gaudu, Quintana, Uran, Woods, Bardet, Vingegaard, Vlasov, Martinez, Mas, Thomas, O'Connor, Caruso, Haig, Roglic, Vinokourov

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, if Thomas is lucky hes losing 4 minutes at Granon

4 minutes on Granon is roughly 10% less power starting the climb at the same time.

I don't think that it is quite reasonable.

 

[topcat]

*^5 Nibali
**** Quintana
*** Caruso
** Pogacar
* Roglic

 

[SafeBet]

4 minutes on Granon is roughly 10% less power starting the climb at the same time.

I don't think that it is quite reasonable.

He would need to be quite far off his peak shape, which doesn't seem likely after TdS.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

*5: Fulgsang (in his ideal world), Cavendish (according to his fans)
*4: Remco (honorary), Fausto (honorary), Vincenzo (honorary), a BORA rider
*3: Pogacar
*2: Roglic, Nairoman
*1: Simon Geschke

 

[BigCoward]

If everyone stays upright Martinez is the only person who I think has a high enough upside to make the podium and push one of the 3 overwhelming favourites off the podium.
It doesn't look likely based on where he was 2 weeks ago though.

 

[Sciatic]

*5: Fulgsang (in his ideal world), Cavendish (according to his fans)
*4: Remco (honorary), Fausto (honorary), Vincenzo (honorary), a BORA rider
*3: Pogacar
*2: Roglic, Nairoman
*1: Simon Geschke

I see we’re getting “.” thread level predictions!

 

[perico]

But Mas easily loses over 6 minutes in 60 km of TT, echelons and the cobble stage to Thomas.

Mas has never lost time in echelons. he’s always on the right side of splits. I mean, Movistar has been pretty much perfect at positioning their leaders in the crosswinds since 2013 and Mas cut his teeth riding for Quik Step.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

6 stars Pogacar
5 stars Roglic
4 stars Vingegaard
3 stars COVID
.
.
.
.
.
0 stars other guys participating (ie Thomas, Vlasov) or not (ie Remco, @Red Rick or me)

 

[cantpedal]

If everyone stays upright Martinez is the only person who I think has a high enough upside to make the podium and push one of the 3 overwhelming favourites off the podium.
It doesn't look likely based on where he was 2 weeks ago though.

I agree and I am hoping he's trying to peak for the second half of the tour. Stages 11 and 12 are where he can make an impact.

 

[postmanhat]

* * * * * Pogacar
* * * * -
* * * -
* * -
* Yates, Gaudu, Quintana, Uran, Woods, Bardet, Vingegaard, Vlasov, Martinez, Mas, Thomas, O'Connor, Caruso, Haig, Roglic, Vinokourov

That's pretty much it I suspect. Vlasov though is the only one of the favourites so far (I think?) who has tested positive with this variant, so I've voted for him. Unfortunately, it's likely the DNSs at the start of each stage will have almost as much bearing on the race as the finishes, pfft.

 

[hayneplane]

* Pogacar
***.5 Roglic
*** Vingegaard, Vlasov, Martinez
* Thomas, Haig, O’Connor, Mas
.5 The field

I really struggle to see how Slovenia don’t win the tour barring a Covid intervention.

 

[inri2000]

Strong negative narrative against Vingegaard in this thread, a guy that came 2nd in the biggest race of year in his first GC. We will see soon enough if that ages well.

I'm curious to see if he has improved his descending skills and how he handles the extra pressure of being one of the pre race favorites, not the silly manufactured pressure described in this thread because his countrymen cheered him on at the presentation.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Reasons why Simon Geschke will win the Tour:

1has a cool beard
2 has more TdF stage wins than the current Giro podium has wins in France
3 podiumed a WT stage race more recently than Pog
4 was better than Contador and the Schlecks in crosswinds at the 2009 TdF

500 Stars Simon Geschke
**** Froome
*** COVID
** Pogačar
* Vingegaard, Roglič, O‘Connor, Mas, Thomas, Martin, MvdP, WVA, Nairo, Mollema, Gaudu, Nibali, Evenepoel, Jakub Mareczko, Vino

 

[Cookster15]

Head says Pogacar but heart says Roglic. I also hope Roglic puts Vingegaard back in his place. Vingegaard made a very premature and disrespectful claim at the Dauphine.

Jonas has benefitted greatly by Roglic's injury situation. Of course Jonas is a great talent but don't see him as stronger than a fully fit and prepared Roglic let alone Tadej Pogacar who is still younger than him and logically would be stronger in 2022 than we have seen previously.

The wildcard is covid wrecking the party. I hope for the best.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

*Pogacar
****Roglic
***Vingegaard
**
*GT, Vlasov, O'Connor, Martinez

Given Covid impact I might take the field against the top 3 though. Hopefully everyone stays healthy.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Mas has never lost time in echelons. he’s always on the right side of splits. I mean, Movistar has been pretty much perfect at positioning their leaders in the crosswinds since 2013 and Mas cut his teeth riding for Quik Step.

Let's not forget 2015 Tour when Quintana missed out in stage 2 echelons. The deficit to Froome that day was greater than the final deficit after three weeks.

But yes, that was 7 years ago and has no bearing on this year. I think Mas has a decent shot at the podium, but he will need Pogacar or one of the Jumbo guys to have some misfortune. I think 5th is realistic.

 

[Cookster15]

Mas has never lost time in echelons. he’s always on the right side of splits. I mean, Movistar has been pretty much perfect at positioning their leaders in the crosswinds since 2013 and Mas cut his teeth riding for Quik Step.

Mas is simply outgunned at the TdF. He is an outside chance of the last step of the podium.

 

[Escarabajo]

4 minutes on Granon is roughly 10% less power starting the climb at the same time.

I don't think that it is quite reasonable.

4 minutes if not more. Granon will be carnage!

 

[perico]

Mas is simply outgunned at the TdF. He is an outside chance of the last step of the podium.

He’s got a better GC record than Vlasov and there is only 1 year between them as well as Martinez. Why is it that they are allowed to keep improving and Mas isn’t?

 

[laarsland]

He’s got a better GC record than Vlasov and there is only 1 year between them as well as Martinez. Why is it that they are allowed to keep improving and Mas isn’t?

How many times have you seen Mas apply a killer instinct?

 

[Cookster15]

He’s got a better GC record than Vlasov and there is only 1 year between them as well as Martinez. Why is it that they are allowed to keep improving and Mas isn’t?

I agree on this point, Mas is still only 27. But Mas has suffered by being anointed by Contador as the next big thing from Spain. He is very good but not aggressive and tends to rise up GC in the 3rd week as others falter. But the TdF has way more pressure than the Vuelta. Mas finished 5th in 2020 and 6th in 2021 with Roglic absent. Roglic should be comfortably ahead. I am also thinking old Geraint Thomas is looking the strongest he has since 2018. He too would be a good chance of finishing ahead of Mas.