Who will win the Vuelta a España 2017?

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

Majka...gutsy...

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Head says - Froome
Heart says - Froome

 

[Bolder]

Re:

Heart: Anyone but Froome

Head: Froome

This.

But, tbh I don't think Froome will win. Of course, he has the ability and the team to crush the field. But this course is nuts and as much as I'd like to think I can foresee what will happen (which I think you could do with some degree of certainty in the TdF this year), I really have no idea how this will play out. So I voted for the field. Would love to see a French rider (Barguil, Alaphilippe) step up.

The only stages I'm familiar with from riding the roads are # 3 and #15, both of which could be decisive on their down. 3 will expose who's in shape and 15 could create big gaps. Should be great to watch on TV...

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

My head says - Froome
My heart says - Froome.. :razz:

 

[spalco]

If not Froome, then I would be fine with Chaves winning, about time for him to win a GT if he's ever going to do it.
Not Nibali or Aru please.

 

[huge]

I'd like Nibali, I say Froome.

I think this year Froome has really planned it. He wants to win it, at least once.
Nibali will be good, but not that good. I think he's gonna struggle on the very sharp uphill finishes.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

As a Pole I must admit that Majka is the least gutsy GC contender... :sad:

 

[Arredondo]

1. Lopez
2. Froome
3. Majka

 

[Tonton]

Majka is getting a lot of love. I'm surprised that Contador gets so little. Bertie will podium, Majka will finish 4th or 5th. Froome-Nibali-Contador, then Majka-Zakarin.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

As a Pole I must admit that Majka is the least gutsy GC contender... :sad:

I disagree. You can perhaps question his ability, but he's a fighter. If it is his main aim, he is prepared to slog it out day after day to finish high in the GC, not doing anything spectacular but limiting his losses enough to do very well in a battle of attrition. Riders like Contador and Nibali, I'm not sure they have it in them to do that at this stage in their careers - more likely to go for an all-or-nothing attack than grind away in the heat for a podium position.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

As a Pole I must admit that Majka is the least gutsy GC contender... :sad:

I disagree. You can perhaps question his ability, but he's a fighter. If it is his main aim, he is prepared to slog it out day after day to finish high in the GC, not doing anything spectacular but limiting his losses enough to do very well in a battle of attrition. Riders like Contador and Nibali, I'm not sure they have it in them to do that at this stage in their careers - more likely to go for an all-or-nothing attack than grind away in the heat for a podium position.

Yeah nibali and contador are more likely to make all out attacks but isn't that exactly what gutsy means?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

As a Pole I must admit that Majka is the least gutsy GC contender... :sad:

I disagree. You can perhaps question his ability, but he's a fighter. If it is his main aim, he is prepared to slog it out day after day to finish high in the GC, not doing anything spectacular but limiting his losses enough to do very well in a battle of attrition. Riders like Contador and Nibali, I'm not sure they have it in them to do that at this stage in their careers - more likely to go for an all-or-nothing attack than grind away in the heat for a podium position.

Yeah nibali and contador are more likely to make all out attacks but isn't that exactly what gutsy means?

I meant it in a different way. I meant it as in being prepared to dig deep and fight every day and limit your losses on a bad day. Putting it all on the line to try to finish on the podium. Contador and Nibali doing all out attacks is certainly more showy and playing to the gallery, but not so sure about gutsy. And I don't think it will work in this Vuelta with so many mountain/hilly stages and with the heat; I think the winners will be ones who are mentally prepared to slog it out every stage, even after having a bad day. Not the ones who spend most of their mental energy looking for that one big stage/big attack.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

As a Pole I must admit that Majka is the least gutsy GC contender... :sad:

I disagree. You can perhaps question his ability, but he's a fighter. If it is his main aim, he is prepared to slog it out day after day to finish high in the GC, not doing anything spectacular but limiting his losses enough to do very well in a battle of attrition. Riders like Contador and Nibali, I'm not sure they have it in them to do that at this stage in their careers - more likely to go for an all-or-nothing attack than grind away in the heat for a podium position.

Yeah nibali and contador are more likely to make all out attacks but isn't that exactly what gutsy means?

Exactly. Majka can be gutsy to win a stage (TdF 2014/2015) but so far he's been overweighted as a team leader contending GC.
On TdP 2017 on crucial stage he attacked 500 m from finish line, received some advantage and... suddenly stopped waiting for I don't know what for.. . The same was during Tour of California'2017.
Yes, he tries to limit his losses and can be 5th-7th in Vuelta but is not a gutsy warrior at all...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think Froome, Majka and Aru will make up the podium. Not sure in what order, but it's going to be a real race of attrition, and I think they are the three gutsiest riders of the contenders.

As a Pole I must admit that Majka is the least gutsy GC contender... :sad:

I disagree. You can perhaps question his ability, but he's a fighter. If it is his main aim, he is prepared to slog it out day after day to finish high in the GC, not doing anything spectacular but limiting his losses enough to do very well in a battle of attrition. Riders like Contador and Nibali, I'm not sure they have it in them to do that at this stage in their careers - more likely to go for an all-or-nothing attack than grind away in the heat for a podium position.

Yeah nibali and contador are more likely to make all out attacks but isn't that exactly what gutsy means?

Exactly. Majka can be gutsy to win a stage (TdF 2014/2015) but so far he's been overweighted as a team leader contending GC.
On TdP 2017 on crucial stage he attacked 500 m from finish line, received some advantage and... suddenly stopped waiting for I don't know what for.. . The same was during Tour of California'2017.
Yes, he tries to limit his losses and can be 5th-7th in Vuelta but is not a gutsy warrior at all...

Why is that not gutsy? When he targets the GC in grand tours, he generally get the most out of his ability by digging deep every day and riding well just inside his limits. It's not such an easy thing to do; especially on a route like this Vuelta when there will be GC action on the majority of stages.

I'd say going on a one-off showy attack that has little chance of working is the easy option, slogging it out every day might not be as exciting to watch, but it takes more mental fortitude.

 

[Brullnux]

Following wheels every day. Gutsy but not aggressive or particularly ambitious

 

[Netserk]

It's not gutsy as there is zero risks in riding that way. No bravery is required whatsoever.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Following wheels every day. Gutsy but not aggressive or particularly ambitious

Agree, it's certainly not ambitious or aggressive. But I think that style will do well in this Vuelta. Nothing flashy, but just being there or there abouts consistently in tough conditions. I think the riders who have the mentality to do that, like Aru and Majka could go very well.

Unless of course they just don't have the legs after the Tour, in which case no amount of guts is going to be enough.

 

[Netserk]

gutsy
ˈɡʌtsi/
adjectiveinformal
adjective: gutsy; comparative adjective: gutsier; superlative adjective: gutsiest

1.
having or showing courage, determination, and spirit.



Following wheels doesn't take courage.

 

[SafeBet]

Chavito.

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

It's an odd year, so an odd winner (Aru, Horner, Cobo...). Granted the list ends there but there is a precedent.

Aru was one of the best GT riders of 2015, and other years he's been close.

But was he really a favourite for the victory beforehand?

I wonder what the history of people being considered favourites before winning one is? Dumoulin 2016 Giro? Froome 2013 Tour, Wiggins 2012 Tour, Evans 2011 Tour?

I would add Sastre to that list as well. Alberto in 2007 wasn't a favourite either.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

gutsy
ˈɡʌtsi/
adjectiveinformal
adjective: gutsy; comparative adjective: gutsier; superlative adjective: gutsiest

1.
having or showing courage, determination, and spirit.



Following wheels doesn't take courage.

Of course it does. Battling through bad days or digging really deep when you're struggling with the heat to stay on the wheel of your competitors - most of whom are more talented than you - takes heaps of courage, determination and spirit.

A rider like Majka would have no chance of placing high if he tried to keep attacking and riding aggressively - he's not good enough to win that away. That's how he rides when he's going for stages or KOM - but he can't sustain that day after day. What he has shown he can do is slog it out and get top 5s in GTs - against more talented riders - through his consistency and guts.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, obviously this is the first that pops in anyone's head when thinking of someone like Majka or Meintjes when they sit in the wheel of others:

courage
ˈkʌrɪdʒ/
noun
noun: courage

the ability to do something that frightens one; bravery.
"she called on all her courage to face the ordeal"

 

[Netserk]

I guess sprinters who do their best and ends 5th or so in bunch sprints are brave as well. They dared to sit in the bunch the whole day....

 

[klintE]

2. Nibali
3. Kelderman
4. one of Yates
5. Majka

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I guess sprinters who do their best and ends 5th or so in bunch sprints are brave as well. They dared to sit in the bunch the whole day....

Why? That's a completely different scenario than doing it consistently for three weeks on all terrain. It's surprising that someone who follows cycling would not understand that.