Who wins the 2014 Giro?

[darwin553]

Being a supporter of both Cadel and Porte, it seems as though I can't lose!

 

[Peter von]

Here's a team I came up with to kill time a few days ago:

Porte, Nieve, Deignan, Kiryienka, Cataldo, Puccio, Lopez, Dombrowski, Eisel

That team is almost stronger than what Froome will take with him to the tour, i mean Nieve, Cataldo AND Kiryienka.
I don't really expect Porte to get as good support as that, SKY saw this year that their suppremacy in the tour mountains is not guaranteed, i thin they'll have a scary team at the tour and one or two very good riders who won't make the final cut.

We must not forget that Froome is without Porte in le Tour next year or at least Porte will be giro-fatigued, and can SKY really hope that Henao or Nieve on their own can do the same job?

 

[Pricey_sky]

That team is almost stronger than what Froome will take with him to the tour, i mean Nieve, Cataldo AND Kiryienka.
I don't really expect Porte to get as good support as that, SKY saw this year that their suppremacy in the tour mountains is not guaranteed, i thin they'll have a scary team at the tour and one or two very good riders who won't make the final cut.

We must not forget that Froome is without Porte in le Tour next year or at least Porte will be giro-fatigued, and can SKY really hope that Henao or Nieve on their own can do the same job?

I expect Porte to do the Tour but he won't be anywhere near as strong as he was this year with a tough Giro in his legs next season. I would think one of Nieve or Kiri to do the Tour as they will be needed there for Froome. We all know the Tour is the big one and they wont go so lightly armed next July.

 

[movingtarget]

I say Fabio Aru has an outside shot at the podium if he stays healthy the whole Giro.

Purito is my main favorite, this is likely his last chance to win a GT and won't wait as much as he's done in the past on mountain stages.
I don't buy Valverde coming to race a GT in Italy.
Porte surely among those who can win it, but has to prove his consistency over three weeks, and I'm not very confident he will. Sky sending Henao as well? Some sort of backup leader is needed.
Basso, Evans and Pozzovivo have no chance whatsoever. Scarponi on the other hand could again come close to podium, or even make it. Same for Uran if he rides here.

Betancur is another guy that could easily make the podium on such a route. Majka is interesting but I've got a feeling that Berto will come to race this and win it.

An outsider to keep an eye on: Diego Rosa.

I agree with your opinion of Basso and Pozzovivo. I disagree about Evans who I think is on a similar level to Scarponi, who you prefer. Evans could top three again but winning would be a stretch.

I think you underestimate Porte. He was very important to Froome in the Tour and without his usual workload for Sky, I think he is the rider to beat. Rodriguez is not getting closer to winning a grand tour even though he has been there on his last four attempts. I see Porte being better over three weeks than Rodriguez and also starting to see the 2012 Giro result like others do, a bit of an anomaly. De Gendt has done nothing since and neither has Hesjedal. That was the GT that Rodriguez should have won and he was outsmarted by Contador in the Vuelta. Another one that Rodriguez could have won if he was good enough. I think Valverde will probably do the Giro/Vuelta. I see Majka and maybe Betancur possible podiums.

I think Contador's sponsors will expect him to ride the Tour. Quintana will do the Tour you would think. Rui Costa may do the Giro and could do well. Kreuziger and Gesink maybe will ride. Kreuziger will probably do the Tour I think and Gesink seems top 5 at best these days.

 

[SafeBet]

I agree with your opinion of Basso and Pozzovivo. I disagree about Evans who I think is on a similar level to Scarponi, who you prefer. Evans could top three again but winning would be a stretch.

I think you underestimate Porte. He was very important to Froome in the Tour and without his usual workload for Sky, I think he is the rider to beat. Rodriguez is not getting closer to winning a grand tour even though he has been there on his last four attempts. I see Porte being better over three weeks than Rodriguez and also starting to see the 2012 Giro result like others do, a bit of an anomaly. De Gendt has done nothing since and neither has Hesjedal. That was the GT that Rodriguez should have won and he was outsmarted by Contador in the Vuelta. Another one that Rodriguez could have won if he was good enough. I think Valverde will probably do the Giro/Vuelta. I see Majka and maybe Betancur possible podiums.

I think Contador's sponsors will expect him to ride the Tour. Quintana will do the Tour you would think. Rui Costa may do the Giro and could do well. Kreuziger and Gesink maybe will ride. Kreuziger will probably do the Tour I think and Gesink seems top 5 at best these days.

Lampre won't lose the chance to show the rainbow jersey on world coverage and have a reliable GC rider after years of nothing in the Tour. Rui is headed to France imo. After all they still have Scarponi for the Giro. And they will give Ulissi another chance to prove he's GC material in grand tours.

 

[The Hitch]

I Evans could top three again

you mean if they cancel all the mountain stages?

 

[Arredondo]

Richie who? Don't see Porte winning the Giro, first see if he's capable of doing a good three weeks without a bad day.

I really hope for Purito, his last chance, together with La Vuelta. Pozzovivo, Basso and all the other in that list aren't serious competition. If Piti is going to take part, he will be the main rival, because after his suspension he doesn't have a bad day anymore

 

[Ferminal]

Porte v Basso. Kreuziger if he goes will look the strongest but have a crap day somewhere. Delfino a threat if Vino wants him to lead.

 

[movingtarget]

you mean if they cancel all the mountain stages?

Obviously I don't. The long TT should help and a good TTT would help even more but the time gaps in those don't usually amount to much. Of course age is against him but this season was disorganised for him early on and his plans for the Giro are long term this time. 2011 seems a long time ago now but I still think he can do a solid ride. If others are picking Scarponi and Basso I can't see Evans finishing behind them. I think it's an open race for the podium but I still think Porte deserves to be favourite simply based on his 2013 performances.

 

[greenedge]

I voted Evans- but considering there will probably be another poll made my foolish favouritism will be rectified

In all seriousness Porte- with probably JROD and Scarponi as his closest challengers.

Quintana brings another dimension to it too- even Valverde.

 

[movingtarget]

I voted Evans- but considering there will probably be another poll made my foolish favouritism will be rectified

In all seriousness Porte- with probably JROD and Scarponi as his closest challengers.

Quintana brings another dimension to it too- even Valverde.

I'm not convinced that Quintana will ride the Giro but Valverde probably will. He has had some bad luck in the Tour and the 2012 Vuelta and has to be considered after good rides. With a long TT Rodriguez does not convince me. Time bonuses would help him of course but Porte could put a few minutes into him in the TT. Scarponi is a bit miss and miss these days but a much better chance than Basso even though he showed some glimpses of good form towards the end of the season.

 

[The Hitch]

Obviously I don't. The long TT should help and a good TTT would help even more but the time gaps in those don't usually amount to much. Of course age is against him but this season was disorganised for him early on and his plans for the Giro are long term this time. 2011 seems a long time ago now but I still think he can do a solid ride. If others are picking Scarponi and Basso I can't see Evans finishing behind them. I think it's an open race for the podium but I still think Porte deserves to be favourite simply based on his 2013 performances.

Of course people pick Scarponi over Evans. He is 2 years younger which is huge at that age and he was stronger than Evans this year. Why wouldn't Scarponi be heavy favourite to beat Evans?

 

[del1962]

Of course people pick Scarponi over Evans. He is 2 years younger which is huge at that age and he was stronger than Evans this year. Why wouldn't Scarponi be heavy favourite to beat Evans?

Evans was not targetting the Giro this year, in 2014 he is, it will be quite interesting to see how he does, he is a much better rider than Scarponi.

 

[MatParker117]

I'm not convinced that Quintana will ride the Giro but Valverde probably will. He has had some bad luck in the Tour and the 2012 Vuelta and has to be considered after good rides. With a long TT Rodriguez does not convince me. Time bonuses would help him of course but Porte could put a few minutes into him in the TT. Scarponi is a bit miss and miss these days but a much better chance than Basso even though he showed some glimpses of good form towards the end of the season.

It was two minutes between porte and purito in the flat tour tt.

 

[Ferminal]

Evans was not targetting the Giro this year, in 2014 he is, it will be quite interesting to see how he does, he is a much better rider than Scarponi.

What was Evans targeting then? Tour of Alberta?

 

[The Hitch]

Evans is grandad age. He was one of the top riders in the world in the mid to late 2000's. Like his rivals during that era, Menchov, Di Luca, Landis, Rasmussen, Vino, Basso etc, he is now too old.

 

[MartinGT]

I voted Porte, although I would love to see Uran win it to rub it into their noses.

 

[del1962]

I voted Porte, although I would love to see Uran win it to rub it into their noses.

I thought the reason he left was for tour GC

 

[The Hitch]

No surprise you don't answer the question that was put to you.

If Evans wasn't peaking for the Giro what was he peaking for.

The Tour? Where looked so out of his depth, that by the end of the first week the Evans defense league was scouring google in search of a "dog ate my homework" excuse that had not already been used for Evans before.

To the backdrop of humorous predictions of braindead July only fans that he was going to smoke contador and valverde "cos they cant dope anymore" lol.

 

[Samson777]

Evans is grandad age. He was one of the top riders in the world in the mid to late 2000's. Like his rivals during that era, Menchov, Di Luca, Landis, Rasmussen, Vino, Basso etc, he is now too old.

You should have told Horner that.. As I see it, Evans still needs more experience, before he will reach his top level.

This poll could maybe need a quintana option, since he is interested in doing the giro:http://www.feltet.dk/nyheder/quintana_vil_goere_debut_i_giro_ditalia/

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

wonder, for how long will the "you should tell that to Horner" defense of an old riders future performances will keep on coming? forever? Horner has had a 1 in a billion type of development. Riders that has reached their top level at the age of 20/early 30's can never keep it up for as long as Horner has done it. Evans steady decline will NOT stop at the age of 40. And people that belvie that is seriously deluded

(not that I think Samson777 is serious when he talks about Evans at the post above me)

 

[The Hitch]

Its like responding every time someone says a sprinter cant win a grand tour with - look at Jalabert.

 

[IndianCyclist]

You should have told Horner that.. As I see it, Evans still needs more experience, before he will reach his top level.

This poll could maybe need a quintana option, since he is interested in doing the giro:http://www.feltet.dk/nyheder/quintana_vil_goere_debut_i_giro_ditalia/

Horner was Evans lieutenant at Lotto. Maybe he can ask Horner for his rejuvenation potion.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Evans is grandad age. He was one of the top riders in the world in the mid to late 2000's. Like his rivals during that era, Menchov, Di Luca, Landis, Rasmussen, Vino, Basso etc, he is now too old.

4% of the poll voters still believe Evans can win. Hope only dies after you are dead.

 

[Rollthedice]

Alejandro Valverde.