Every time Contador stands up on his pedals people will be on the edge of their seats just waiting to see if this is the one. Couldn't be happier he is down just to see when and where he makes his move, and will it be enough. Makes for a good race.
- Aug 12, 2012
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2 minutes is not so much at this stage. there is still a long long way to go and many ups and downs. one bad day or bit of bad luck at the wrong time and it will go in a flash. remember when people were discussing Evans as a serious contender early in the giro??! im not saying evans is the same as nibali but there is a long way to go
- Sep 2, 2010
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- 0
willbick said:
Exactly. People are reading into this too much. Nibali was lucky today not having suffered a mechanical or falling whether his fault or someone else ramming into him. Not a matter of sheer leg strength. Look at the standings now, are we also going to root for Sagan possibly taking a shot at the podium in Paris as well? One could argue so.
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
- 6,144
- 6,655
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Pippo_San said:
Please elaborate - do not shoot and run as is so common on here. I don't have time to read this entire thread so can you please explain WHY you don't think AC can win again ? Some of us just may be interested without trying to decode the humor - if there was meant to be any ?
I agree it is too early to tell but I am actually hoping Nibs can pull it off. Without any mountains to confirm he did look strong on the hilly stage 2. But if AC is still in the form he has shown all season surely he needs to be considered a strong contender as the Poll suggests ? Unless you know something I don't?
- Aug 6, 2010
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I voted Contador, but this is shaping up to be an interesting Tour.
For sure there will forever be an asterix next to the winner due to Froome's absence, but that's the way it goes.
I am interested to see how Astana play this now. History says that they can't keep yellow for three weeks, but 'loaning' the jersey could be difficult and fraught with danger; only 44 riders within ten minutes of Nibali after five stages, incredible. Could we end up with a Pereiro type of situation again if Astana are insistent on letting a breakaway get a heap of time?
First rule for Contador right now: Don't panic. Most would have said that going into this race he would beat Nibali by about five minutes. Nothing has happened thus far to suggest those thoughts should change. If Nibali rediscovers is Giro '13 climbing legs then that will spell trouble for Alberto, but on '14 form Contador should beat him consistently in the high mountains. Thirty seconds here, a minute there...it will all add up. If Nibali out climbs him on stage 10 then he can start to worry, but until then he should just ride normally. There should be no reason for crazy long range attacks; just go halfway up the final climbs of the day.
Nibali? He has to ride mostly defensively, but if there is a strange stage that gives the opportunity to gain more time then he must take it.
Porte? Maybe he is a contender. Maybe he is not. We don't know, and won't until at least stage 10. If he can recover his AX-3 Domaines form then he is in the mix. And he could even defeat Contador in the time trial. His situation reminds me of Sastre and Kloden in '06. They both went to France with the plan of being super domestiques, but not leaders. Sastre had ridden the Giro, and Kloden had hurt his collarbone in March. Both weren't really prepared to go for the yellow jersey. Of course situations beyond their control changed that. Can Porte gain climbing form quickly enough? For me he just has to hang on in the alps, for if he can do that then I think he will only be better in the Pyrenees.
Valverde? Everyone seems to forget him. His form has been much better than Nibali's this season for starters, and he's currently ahead of Contador on GC. An outside chance of winning, but a chance.
Van Den Broek? Probably a good chance at the podium, not so much of the victory.
Van Garderen/Talansky? Could pinch a third placing with some luck.
Bring on stage 8...
For sure there will forever be an asterix next to the winner due to Froome's absence, but that's the way it goes.
I am interested to see how Astana play this now. History says that they can't keep yellow for three weeks, but 'loaning' the jersey could be difficult and fraught with danger; only 44 riders within ten minutes of Nibali after five stages, incredible. Could we end up with a Pereiro type of situation again if Astana are insistent on letting a breakaway get a heap of time?
First rule for Contador right now: Don't panic. Most would have said that going into this race he would beat Nibali by about five minutes. Nothing has happened thus far to suggest those thoughts should change. If Nibali rediscovers is Giro '13 climbing legs then that will spell trouble for Alberto, but on '14 form Contador should beat him consistently in the high mountains. Thirty seconds here, a minute there...it will all add up. If Nibali out climbs him on stage 10 then he can start to worry, but until then he should just ride normally. There should be no reason for crazy long range attacks; just go halfway up the final climbs of the day.
Nibali? He has to ride mostly defensively, but if there is a strange stage that gives the opportunity to gain more time then he must take it.
Porte? Maybe he is a contender. Maybe he is not. We don't know, and won't until at least stage 10. If he can recover his AX-3 Domaines form then he is in the mix. And he could even defeat Contador in the time trial. His situation reminds me of Sastre and Kloden in '06. They both went to France with the plan of being super domestiques, but not leaders. Sastre had ridden the Giro, and Kloden had hurt his collarbone in March. Both weren't really prepared to go for the yellow jersey. Of course situations beyond their control changed that. Can Porte gain climbing form quickly enough? For me he just has to hang on in the alps, for if he can do that then I think he will only be better in the Pyrenees.
Valverde? Everyone seems to forget him. His form has been much better than Nibali's this season for starters, and he's currently ahead of Contador on GC. An outside chance of winning, but a chance.
Van Den Broek? Probably a good chance at the podium, not so much of the victory.
Van Garderen/Talansky? Could pinch a third placing with some luck.
Bring on stage 8...
- Mar 17, 2009
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hfer07 said:
Froome WAS his biggest rival coming into the Tour. There was nothing unreasonable about making that assertion based on the state of things going into the Tour. But things changed once they clipped in. He knows who his rivals are and who is number one rival is now: Nibali and the other 17 riders standing between him and the top step in Paris.
- Apr 16, 2009
- 69
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- Feb 10, 2010
- 10,645
- 20
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Jelantik said:
Agree. Contador has the advantage of taking time back while Nibali remains the leader and take it back near the end. IMO, Nibali and co. went deep today and that will be a disadvantage the closer we get to the end. One bad mountainous day for Nibali and someone else wears the jersey.
Sky has a squad that can beat Tinko-Saxo, but I have grave doubts management can adjust their strategy. They have utterly failed at that task before.
- May 15, 2011
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- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
maxmartin said:
His performance in Tirreno and Dauphiné was pretty good. Anyway, continue to be convinced Nibali will win, you might very well be right, but don't be disappointed when he doesn't.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
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- 24,680
Cookster15 said:
I think it is more hope than anything else, but you have to be realistic and realize that if he doesn't win this year, it'll be very hard to win another Tour.
- Apr 29, 2012
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Contador will have eyes on Nibali, Porte is the dark horse, patchy preparation, but seems to be coming into good form, and given he is well rested should last well for the 3 weeks.
If Porte can stick with Contador then it's Porte v Nibali for the victory, Contador needs to take time out of both. It really depends where Richie's form is, if he has his 2013 form he should be in the hunt, if this season is his barometer then not so much.
If Porte can stick with Contador then it's Porte v Nibali for the victory, Contador needs to take time out of both. It really depends where Richie's form is, if he has his 2013 form he should be in the hunt, if this season is his barometer then not so much.
- Jan 27, 2012
- 15,157
- 2,550
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If Astana goes Postal this year, the rest of the tour will be just as boring as '12.
A lot hinges on the strength of the pajama train.
If we get a realistic situation, the race is wide open still.
A lot hinges on the strength of the pajama train.
If we get a realistic situation, the race is wide open still.
- May 4, 2011
- 4,285
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Dazed and Confused said:
I doubt it, but if Astana went all in, then Nibali could maybe still have to contend with Fuglsang. Not exactly a loyal dom, that guy, and seemingly in great form. His record as a climber is not that great, of course, but nothing would surprise me anymore.
- Jun 14, 2010
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hfer07 said:
How will that work? Today and tomorrow are flat stages so they will s.t unless Nibali wants to lose time to his gc rivals too. Sat is a hilly stage but Sagan has like 40 seconds to make up, which us very unlikely unless all the gc guys together agree they will let Sagan go up the road while they have a truce.
But even if he did somehow make time on Saturday, Sunday has mountains and Monday is an mtf so Sagan would lose the jersey anyway.
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