Who wins the Tour 2017?

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Sure, I don't doubt that. But I do feel sorry for him that, in addition to putting pressure on himself to win, he also has pressure of an international fan base to win. So, even finishing 2nd or 3rd (which objectively, I'm sure most would agree, would be a good result), he will not only feel his own disappointment, but also the disappoinment of letting his fans down.

I guess that's just the way it goes though when you've already got seven (or nine ) wins on your palmares.

I think he'll be disappointed with anything less than a win, but reading his interviews of late I think he'd take some consolation if he made an exciting race of it. He'd be a lot more disappointed with finishing a boring 2nd rather than blowing up on the last mountain stage and dropping to 11th. Like you say, he already has an all-time great number of GT wins (is he the only one with multiple wins in all 3?) so podium places mean less to him than entertaining races.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Sure, I don't doubt that. But I do feel sorry for him that, in addition to putting pressure on himself to win, he also has pressure of an international fan base to win. So, even finishing 2nd or 3rd (which objectively, I'm sure most would agree, would be a good result), he will not only feel his own disappointment, but also the disappoinment of letting his fans down.

I guess that's just the way it goes though when you've already got seven (or nine ) wins on your palmares.

I think he'll be disappointed with anything less than a win, but reading his interviews of late I think he'd take some consolation if he made an exciting race of it. He'd be a lot more disappointed with finishing a boring 2nd rather than blowing up on the last mountain stage and dropping to 11th. Like you say, he already has an all-time great number of GT wins (is he the only one with multiple wins in all 3?) so podium places mean less to him than entertaining races.

Hinault has at least 2 wins in each

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

Watching the team presentation I have spontaneously decided that I want Chaves to win the Tour.

We all want Chaves to win the Tour. The question is how we will deal with the disappointment if he doesn't.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I agree with DFA about the pressure by fans. You see it here that people actually start talking about Contador in a legend type character that does not give a rat a$$ about 2nd or 3rd. Well maybe he does.

Well we can only go by what he himself says

One is what he says, but I think what he actually has done is describing the situation more accurately (as romantic as it is..) So while he still miracously hasn't been on the podium without winning, he tried hard to grab the 3rd spot behind Froome and Quintana in last year's Vuelta and even went to the media afterwards with his frustration over Movistar's tactics (which were totally legitimate, even though Alberto had helped Quintana win the Vuelta).

And thats just the recent example. He fighted with everything he had against Purito in 2013 and it very much looked like a podium, just like at the Vuelta, until Chaves in 16 and Purito in 13 got into their 3rd week groove and clibmed extremely well and took Alberto's podium position.

So I think its fair to say that it matters to him, but maybe not as much as it matters to others. That would probably be the most fair to say IMO.

 

[dick the quick]

Unfortunately, most of us are just wrong:

 

[LaFlorecita]

@ValvPiti Of course if he is forced to choose between 3rd and 4th he'd pick 3rd. Only an idiot would rather finish 4th than 3rd. And his team and teammates expect him to fight for as high a position as possible. But if he has to choose between a 5% chance of 1st and a 95% chance of 5th, or a 0% chance of 1st and a 100% chance of 3rd, he'd choose the 1st option. Which can't be said about many others.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

@ValvPiti Of course if he is forced to choose between 3rd and 4th he'd pick 3rd. And his team and teammates expect him to fight for as high a position as possible. But if he has to choose between a 5% chance of 1st and a 95% chance of 5th, or a 0% chance of 1st and a 100% chance of 3rd, he'd choose the 1st option.

Hypoethetically, but how about if you make it 1% against 99%? I mean, where is the line?

All Im trying to say is I think its wrong and somewhat of a myth that Contador doesn't care about podium positions and back it up with he has only won or finished outside the podium (I know you didn't do that). Thats all I oppose I don't really care what he says since I think the past has shown he DOES value a podium. He has just been unfortunate/not good enough to pick it up in those GT's where he has been under par (Tour 13 + 15, Vuelta 16).

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I think they all care once it becomes clear they can't win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

So to summarize I doubt Alberto is bothered by his fans hyping him. In fact I even think it would make him smile to see it and he'd be disappointed if he saw how low the expectations of some of his self-proclaimed fans are on this forum, or those idiots going into his thread posting he should retire at the slightest hint of a decline. Just my 2c.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I think they all care once it becomes clear they can't win.

I do too. That goes for everyone, including the greatest champions (maybe apart from Boonen who doesn't seem to care about secondary places at all). The question is to what lengths you are willing to go when its not entirely over

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

@ValvPiti Of course if he is forced to choose between 3rd and 4th he'd pick 3rd. And his team and teammates expect him to fight for as high a position as possible. But if he has to choose between a 5% chance of 1st and a 95% chance of 5th, or a 0% chance of 1st and a 100% chance of 3rd, he'd choose the 1st option.

Hypoethetically, but how about if you make it 1% against 99%? I mean, where is the line?

All Im trying to say is I think its wrong and somewhat of a myth that Contador doesn't care about podium positions and back it up with he has only won or finished outside the podium (I know you didn't do that). Thats all I oppose I don't really care what he says since I think the past has shown he DOES value a podium. He has just been unfortunate/not good enough to pick it up in those GT's where he has been under par (Tour 13 + 15, Vuelta 16).

It's not black and white. When people say he doesn't care about a podium they mean he is willing to throw away a podium position to have a shot at winning. Yes, even if it's a 1% chance.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

@ValvPiti Of course if he is forced to choose between 3rd and 4th he'd pick 3rd. And his team and teammates expect him to fight for as high a position as possible. But if he has to choose between a 5% chance of 1st and a 95% chance of 5th, or a 0% chance of 1st and a 100% chance of 3rd, he'd choose the 1st option.

Hypoethetically, but how about if you make it 1% against 99%? I mean, where is the line?

All Im trying to say is I think its wrong and somewhat of a myth that Contador doesn't care about podium positions and back it up with he has only won or finished outside the podium (I know you didn't do that). Thats all I oppose I don't really care what he says since I think the past has shown he DOES value a podium. He has just been unfortunate/not good enough to pick it up in those GT's where he has been under par (Tour 13 + 15, Vuelta 16).

It's not black and white. When people say he doesn't care about a podium they mean he is willing to throw away a podium position to have a shot at winning. Yes, even if it's a 1% chance.

But then its black/white if you say he would throw it away even at a 1% chance. Thats the definition of black/white, 100% vs 0%, all or nothing. And I don't agree with that.

 

[HelloDolly]

I do think one thing is sure is that the Tour is wide open with no out and out favourite imo
Sure SKY have the best team but Froome is not at his usual invincible self
Quintana has a GT in his legs...and well Richie is Richie.very strong but who knows
Aru is coming back from injury, Fuglsang has never had it over 3 weeks . Chaves looks above race weight and Yates has not been great so far this year
Valverde is riding for Quintana and Dan Martin has some weaknesses...Other like Roglic , Bennett, Thomas, Landa, etc will be making up the numbers
Yet all are capable of wining

However Contador has as good a chance as anyway....but imo better chance as he has won so many GTs...he is a man for all parcours and eventualities....
And I think he has something up his sleeve

 

[barmaher]

It's pretty cool that all the major contenders are fit and ready to roll. What a pity the course is so sht.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

However Contador has as good a chance as anyway....but imo better chance as he has won so many GTs...he is a man for all parcours and eventualities....
And I think he has something up his sleeve

I agree.
Interesting to note De Jongh said in an interview they don't expect Contador to win the race in the TTs and MTFs. So they'll have to try something different.

 

[Campervan man]

Re:

It's pretty cool that all the major contenders are fit and ready to roll. What a pity the course is so sht.

Couldn't agree more. Shame that there aren't more medium mountain stages, stages that are lengthier and also a few more mountain top finishes. On the plus side though, Aru, Bananito, Contador, Jacob, Porte, Yates, Pantano, Amador, Nairo, Bardet, Pinot, Valverde, Martin, Chaves, Froome, Ion, Thomas, Roglic, Landa. That's like 15 top climbers! So add another few into the mix and the few mountains we've got could be chaotic (I hope) especially looking at Movistar. They really have potential to shake this race up.

 

[laurensde+]

Froome will win. (Obviously.)

Uran second. (No, really.)

Bardet third. (Just ahead of Landa.)

 

[Red Rick]

Froome will win. (Obviously.)

Uran second. (No, really.)

Bardet third. (Just ahead of Landa.)

Thanks man.

In hindsight I'm sad I didn't bet the house before the Alps. Could've had 1.2 houses by this evening