Who wins the Tour 2017?

[wheresmybrakes]

Can get 33/1 for Aru at Ladbrokes!!!!

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I think that what changed a lot of opinions about Porte - including my own - was that in last years tdf he was the most threatening climber to Froome. The race conservativism - namely, an unbelievably strong Sky train drilling it every mountainous day - worked against him[/i] being able to potentially take some time, if not from Froome, at least some of the other GC faves. For mine, he was climbing a lot better than Yates and Quintana who both finished ahead of him on GC. Bardet was maybe the other significant threat.

I think the relevant question is: how might he have gone if he actually had genuine team support + absence of freaky accidents (remember, it was he who crashed into the moto whilst off the front on Ventoux). And there's no doubt he's on the podium.

I think had the Ventoux stage played out differently then he would have gained more time on Quintana and Yates.

 

[May0maniac]

From what I've heard Barguil wants to go stagehunting at the Tour and ride for gc at the Vuelta.
I understand Majka's reasoning, he already has stage wins at the Tour and won the polka dots jersey twice. He already has finished top 10 on gc in the Giro and the Vuelta, so now he wants to ride the Tour for gc for the first time.

 

[Jagartrott]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

Bardet ranked too low I think.
He has a good team as well.

 

[Bolder]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.

Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg

My head says it will be Froome/Quintana, again. My heart (and vote) went for Aru, but I would be satisfied with anyone but Froome/Quintana/Contador, although a stirring ride from AC would be somewhat inspiring.

(Re OP style revelation -- the last doping scandal that had actual GT consequences was...AC's suspension. And that was 5 years ago. Ain't gonna happen this year.)

 

[DanielSong39]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.

Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg

Just a warning, the betting winner in the 2006 Tour de France was Floyd Landis who started off as one of the favorites. To cash the ticket you have to win it on the road, not in the courts.

A Festina/Landis/Rasmussen scenario is not out of the question and has to be factored into the betting odds. I think cycling deserves much more respect in that they have actually implicated and disqualified top tier stars. With that said, it does make it more tricky to pick the winner.

 

[DanielSong39]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?

There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.

I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.

Absolutely, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see an outsider finish second or third. Meintjes, Majka, and Dan Martin are the most likely candidates. Maybe Thomas if Chris Froome drops out for some reason.

 

[Bolder]

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.

Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg

Just a warning, the betting winner in the 2006 Tour de France was Floyd Landis who started off as one of the favorites. To cash the ticket you have to win it on the road, not in the courts.

A Festina/Landis/Rasmussen scenario is not out of the question and has to be factored into the betting odds. I think cycling deserves much more respect in that they have actually implicated and disqualified top tier stars. With that said, it does make it more tricky to pick the winner.

I just don't we're going to see that, for reasons probably not allowed (or worth getting into) in this forum.

 

[Laplaz]

1. Quintana
2. Porte
3. Froome
4. Aru
5. Contador
6. Meintjes
7. D. Martin
8. Bardet
9. Valverde
10. Majka

 

[portugal11]

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

 

[Jspear]

Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.

 

[indianfanboy]

Re: Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.

I dont think Dennis is riding the TDF

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.

I dont think Dennis is riding the TDF

He isn't. He's first reserve.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.

I dont think Dennis is riding the TDF

Lol oops....my bad!

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

It seems to be between Panzer, Skijumper and van Emden. With Cummings as a dark horse.

 

[The_Beach]

Re: Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

It seems to be between Panzer, Skijumper and van Emden. With Cummings as a dark horse.

Küng?

 

[DanielSong39]

Are Tony Martin and Kiriyenka riding in the race? I'd figure they would be among the favorites in an ITT.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

I'd say Martin and Roglic are the favorites with Van Emden, Küng, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski as the biggest challengers.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Are Tony Martin and Kiriyenka riding in the race? I'd figure they would be among the favorites in an ITT.

They are, but imo they aren't as big of favorites when the TT is shorter.

 

[Katabatic]

Bardet as a bet to podium is great with good odds.

Bardet as a bet to win is probably too high. His horrible ITT is simply too much to overcome.

 

[This Charming Man]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?

There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.

I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.

Absolutely, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see an outsider finish second or third. Meintjes, Majka, and Dan Martin are the most likely candidates. Maybe Thomas if Chris Froome drops out for some reason.

Is it possible to bet on a possible doping violation???

 

[DanielSong39]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?

There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.

I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.

Absolutely, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see an outsider finish second or third. Meintjes, Majka, and Dan Martin are the most likely candidates. Maybe Thomas if Chris Froome drops out for some reason.

Is it possible to bet on a possible doping violation???

Unfortunately when it comes to picking a winner you have to take that kind of stuff into account. Sometimes it happens in the middle of the race and makes it much more difficult to pick a winner.

For forum purposes I think we should apply the sportsbook rules; the goal is to pick the cyclist who puts on the yellow jersey after the final stage. Otherwise we could be arguing over this for years.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

I'd say Martin and Roglic are the favorites with Van Emden, Küng, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski as the biggest challengers.

Don't forget Porte

Also, I have this idea Phinney will surprise everyone in that short TT.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Bardet as a bet to podium is great with good odds.

Bardet as a bet to win is probably too high. His horrible ITT is simply too much to overcome.

This years route is pretty much built for him, with all those downhill finishes and few TT Km.

I see him on the podium too.

I don't see Porte on the podium for the same reasons.... he is the best TT specialist amongst the podium candidates, and a horrible decender (we saw that in Dauphine).

Also, I see the route suiting Valverde better than ever, with a lot of short, sharp climbs, a lot of decending, few TT Km and few long climb finishes.

My podium bet is Froome, Bardet, Valverde.

I hope Fuglsang is up there, but fear he gets an off day on a big mountain stage, he usually does in 3 week races.
Aru and Chavez needed more big mountain stages to hit the podium I think, and Chavez is not in peak condition anyway.

Quintana will probably struggle doing his first double.

Other than that, I don't see anyone with a serious shot at the podium - baring crashes ofcourse.... someone may do a "Nibali"

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

So who are the favourites to win the time trial?

I'd say Martin and Roglic are the favorites with Van Emden, Küng, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski as the biggest challengers.

Don't forget Porte

Also, I have this idea Phinney will surprise everyone in that short TT.

Yep Porte could take it. I think conditions will play a role though. If it's raining, none of the GC guys will be interested in doing anything crazy. It'll probably come down to those that see this as their one big shot in the race, if conditions are bad.