The Cycling News forum is still looking to add volunteer moderators with. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to
In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.
Thanks!
The Hegelian said:DFA123 said:This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.staubsauger said:Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.
I think that what changed a lot of opinions about Porte - including my own - was that in last years tdf he was the most threatening climber to Froome. The race conservativism - namely, an unbelievably strong Sky train drilling it every mountainous day - worked against him[/i] being able to potentially take some time, if not from Froome, at least some of the other GC faves. For mine, he was climbing a lot better than Yates and Quintana who both finished ahead of him on GC. Bardet was maybe the other significant threat.
I think the relevant question is: how might he have gone if he actually had genuine team support + absence of freaky accidents (remember, it was he who crashed into the moto whilst off the front on Ventoux). And there's no doubt he's on the podium.
Bardet ranked too low I think.DanielSong39 said:Order of likelihood according to betting odds:
1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves
Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
gregrowlerson said:DanielSong39 said:Order of likelihood according to betting odds:
1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves
Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.
Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg![]()
gregrowlerson said:DanielSong39 said:Order of likelihood according to betting odds:
1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves
Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.
Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg![]()
The Hegelian said:DanielSong39 said:Order of likelihood according to betting odds:
1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves
Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?
There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.
I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.
DanielSong39 said:gregrowlerson said:DanielSong39 said:Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.
Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg![]()
Just a warning, the betting winner in the 2006 Tour de France was Floyd Landis who started off as one of the favorites. To cash the ticket you have to win it on the road, not in the courts.
A Festina/Landis/Rasmussen scenario is not out of the question and has to be factored into the betting odds. I think cycling deserves much more respect in that they have actually implicated and disqualified top tier stars. With that said, it does make it more tricky to pick the winner.
portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Jspear said:portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.
indianfanboy said:Jspear said:portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.
I dont think Dennis is riding the TDF
indianfanboy said:Jspear said:portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Dennis will win. But most TT'ist have a fair chance of winning.
I dont think Dennis is riding the TDF
portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Küng?Max Rockatansky said:portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
It seems to be between Panzer, Skijumper and van Emden. With Cummings as a dark horse.
I'd say Martin and Roglic are the favorites with Van Emden, Küng, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski as the biggest challengers.portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
DanielSong39 said:Are Tony Martin and Kiriyenka riding in the race? I'd figure they would be among the favorites in an ITT.
DanielSong39 said:The Hegelian said:DanielSong39 said:Order of likelihood according to betting odds:
1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves
Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?
There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.
I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.
Absolutely, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see an outsider finish second or third. Meintjes, Majka, and Dan Martin are the most likely candidates. Maybe Thomas if Chris Froome drops out for some reason.
This Charming Man said:DanielSong39 said:The Hegelian said:DanielSong39 said:Order of likelihood according to betting odds:
1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves
Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.
Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?
There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.
I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.
Absolutely, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see an outsider finish second or third. Meintjes, Majka, and Dan Martin are the most likely candidates. Maybe Thomas if Chris Froome drops out for some reason.
Is it possible to bet on a possible doping violation???
Hugo Koblet said:I'd say Martin and Roglic are the favorites with Van Emden, Küng, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski as the biggest challengers.portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Katabatic said:Bardet as a bet to podium is great with good odds.
Bardet as a bet to win is probably too high. His horrible ITT is simply too much to overcome.
Broccolidwarf said:Hugo Koblet said:I'd say Martin and Roglic are the favorites with Van Emden, Küng, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski as the biggest challengers.portugal11 said:So who are the favourites to win the time trial?
Don't forget Porte
Also, I have this idea Phinney will surprise everyone in that short TT.