Who wins the Tour 2017?

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I agree. I think contador will destroy porte in the third week because he is very agressive and he smells riders weaknesses

Maybe the old Contador not the current one. Some people talk about Contador like it is 2009 still.

Like it's Twenty Zero Nine.

I was dreaming when I wrote this....

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BsdPEBzpPrU/hqdefault.jpg

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I agree. I think contador will destroy porte in the third week because he is very agressive and he smells riders weaknesses

Maybe the old Contador not the current one. Some people talk about Contador like it is 2009 still.

Like it's Twenty Zero Nine.

I was dreaming when I wrote this....

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BsdPEBzpPrU/hqdefault.jpg

Contador Version One !

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I think that what changed a lot of opinions about Porte - including my own - was that in last years tdf he was the most threatening climber to Froome. The race conservativism - namely, an unbelievably strong Sky train drilling it every mountainous day - worked against him being able to potentially take some time, if not from Froome, at least some of the other GC faves. For mine, he was climbing a lot better than Yates and Quintana who both finished ahead of him on GC. Bardet was maybe the other significant threat.

I think the relevant question is: how might he have gone if he actually had genuine team support + absence of freaky accidents (remember, it was he who crashed into the moto whilst off the front on Ventoux). And there's no doubt he's on the podium.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I think that what changed a lot of opinions about Porte - including my own - was that in last years tdf he was the most threatening climber to Froome..

LOL

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I agree. I think contador will destroy porte in the third week because he is very agressive and he smells riders weaknesses

Maybe the old Contador not the current one. Some people talk about Contador like it is 2009 still.

We will see...

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

But i'm still not convinced Porte will have a bad day while in shape. I mean, most of the GT's he has ridden, he rode as a domestique. Last year, even though how conservatively the race was ridden, he rode quite consistently.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

But i'm still not convinced Porte will have a bad day while in shape. I mean, most of the GT's he has ridden, he rode as a domestique. Last year, even though how conservatively the race was ridden, he rode quite consistently.

I agree. I don't think it's a given that Porte will have a bad day this year. But equally, I'm not sure that last year provides enough evidence to say that he is now unlikely to have bad day, because last year the mountains were raced so conservatively. The only rider who could have cracked the Sky train (Quintana) was in terrible form, so it just ended up as a procession of climbs ridden just below threshold the whole way.

I think another danger for Porte may be that he is vulnerable on descents as well, and we know riders like Froome, Bardet and Valverde will certainly attack him there given half the chance. So, even without a day, it could be very complicated for him to defend a lead.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

But i'm still not convinced Porte will have a bad day while in shape. I mean, most of the GT's he has ridden, he rode as a domestique. Last year, even though how conservatively the race was ridden, he rode quite consistently.

I agree. I don't think it's a given that Porte will have a bad day this year. But equally, I'm not sure that last year provides enough evidence to say that he is now unlikely to have bad day, because last year the mountains were raced so conservatively. The only rider who could have cracked the Sky train (Quintana) was in terrible form, so it just ended up as a procession of climbs ridden just below threshold the whole way.

I think another danger for Porte may be that he is vulnerable on descents as well, and we know riders like Froome, Bardet and Valverde will certainly attack him there given half the chance. So, even without a day, it could be very complicated for him to defend a lead.

I agree with you he's vulnerable while being under pressure. Not only on descents, but also when tactical play is taken into account. Also his team isn't strong enough to control the race. So it would be better for Porte to take yellow as late as possible.

I only doubt if he can maintain his shape for the upcoming weeks. Normally guys like Froome, Valverde and Bardet should be improving during the race, while Porte already had amazing shape in the Dauphine. The question is: can he still improve? If so, i've never seen a better version of a GT-rider in the past 15 years

 

[portugal11]

I'm starting to think that aru has a chance of win this whole thing

 

[sir fly]

Re:

I'm starting to think that aru has a chance of win this whole thing

He mustn't waste a second beyond expected in order to.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's a bold prediction, but I say one of these twenty is going to win Le Tour:

1. Chris Froome: Another deadly boring Tour dominated by him and his blue train is very well possible. However he hasn't looked that impressive lately and Wout Poels will be missed, so he's not as overwhelmingly the favorite as last year.

2. Richie Porte: He has a history of dominating one-week races and subsequently disappointing in GTs. On the other hand he has proven last year that he can be consistent over three weeks, so if he can maintain his form he can finish high.

3. Nairo Quintana: The theory is that he should be better in his second GT. I hope for him the theory is right. The Alpine stages should suit him, especially the finish on the Izoard. He needs to be at least a minute ahead before the final time trial.

4. Alberto Contador: If he can reach the shape of his good old days he's still a candidate, and he knows that winning one more TdF would be huge. The good thing about him is that he'll be willing to play all or nothing, which might make the Tour more interesting than last year.

5. Romain Bardet: It will be hard to equal his second place from last year, but the capricious course contains several stages that could benefit his attacking style. I like his attitude and his sense of initiative, but I still have the feeling that he's one level beneath the big boys.

6. Fabio Aru: Last year was quite disappointing and he's had health problems this year, but maybe he found his shape back just in time. However the opposition here will be harder than at the national championship.

7. Alejandro Valverde: He keeps saying his only goal is to work for Quintana - by being high in the GC himself, which reminds me of Hinault in '86. Unfortunately you can't win the Tour by just taking the uphill sprints.

8. Jakob Fuglsang: Sometimes he looks like a champion, but he has yet to confirm that in a GT. Keeping two irons in the fire might be the right strategy for Astana.

9. Daniel Martin: He's not afraid to attack and he has shown a good form in the Dauphiné. He outsider status gives him a certain freedom.

10. Thibaut Pinot: After a decent Giro he might focus on a stage win and the polka dots, but this doesn't exclude a top 10 place.

11. Esteban Chaves: He didn't race much this year, but he's usually at his best in the third week of a GT. I would like to see him do well, but I'm not sure about his shape.

12. Robert Gesink: After a lot of bad luck he has come back. He's currently low profile, but his shape is fine. He might make the top 10 again, or go stage hunting like in the Vuelta.

13. Andrew Talansky: After his fifth place in the Vuelta a decent result should be possible.

14. Warren Barguil: France's third guy, candidate for the top 10.

15. Louis Meintjes: Good shape, but he has his limlitations.

16. Rafal Majka: He'd better focus on a stage win or the polka dots.

17. Simon Yates: I doubt whether he can equal his brother's performance of last year.

18. Pierre Rolland: Will probably ride for a stage win and the polka dots.

19. Sergio Henao: Team Sky has at least four riders who could finish high if they rode for themselves.

20. Bauke Mollema: He will have to work for Contador, but might still think of his own place.

 

[wirral]

Has anyone been able to download the rules of the Tour this year. Last year there was a link on the official site but there isn't one this year.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

But i'm still not convinced Porte will have a bad day while in shape. I mean, most of the GT's he has ridden, he rode as a domestique. Last year, even though how conservatively the race was ridden, he rode quite consistently.

I agree. I don't think it's a given that Porte will have a bad day this year. But equally, I'm not sure that last year provides enough evidence to say that he is now unlikely to have bad day, because last year the mountains were raced so conservatively. The only rider who could have cracked the Sky train (Quintana) was in terrible form, so it just ended up as a procession of climbs ridden just below threshold the whole way.

I think another danger for Porte may be that he is vulnerable on descents as well, and we know riders like Froome, Bardet and Valverde will certainly attack him there given half the chance. So, even without a day, it could be very complicated for him to defend a lead.

I feel the issue with Porte will be his mental strength. Too often in the past, its led him to panic mistakes (thing wheel change Giro) or meltdowns. Here he is going in to the Tour, arguably in career best form but with a dirty great big target on his back.

With his "they were all a bunch of big meanies ganging up on me" whine post Dauphine; he's just given them clear evidence that he can be "got at" and let's not think that every other team won't hesitate to apply the blowtorch to his belly when/wherever possible.

Does he have all the physical attributes to win a GT and specifically this upcoming Tour ?? I have very little doubt; what I very much doubt is his intelligence and race smarts .... and more importance his composure under pressure.

 

[infeXio]

Re:

Has anyone been able to download the rules of the Tour this year. Last year there was a link on the official site but there isn't one this year.

This was posted earlier in the thread. I haven't downloaded it myself, but I assume you might find atleast some of what you're looking for. It was uploaded by ammattipyöräily on twitter;

https://drive.google.com/uc?id=0B2ePVIhF7aPxQTVoMHp3ZVJhNUk&export=download

Here you find the official roadbook.

 

[wirral]

Re: Re:

Has anyone been able to download the rules of the Tour this year. Last year there was a link on the official site but there isn't one this year.

This was posted earlier in the thread. I haven't downloaded it myself, but I assume you might find atleast some of what you're looking for. It was uploaded by ammattipyöräily on twitter;

https://drive.google.com/uc?id=0B2ePVIhF7aPxQTVoMHp3ZVJhNUk&export=download

Here you find the official roadbook.

Great. Still works. Downloaded all 119 pages.

 

[latino]

Re: Re:

Also, Sagan is coming back for his 6th green jersey, the parcours is perfect for him this year
The sprinters are going to get some headaches because of him.

He's sprinter too.

I mean against the pure sprinters.
Kittel, Greipel, Cavendish, etc
The ones that can't climb

Sagan is more of a puncheur / classics specialist who also sprints pretty well.

 

[Squire]

Re:

It's a bold prediction, but I say one of these twenty is going to win Le Tour:

1. Chris Froome: Another deadly boring Tour dominated by him and his blue train is very well possible. However he hasn't looked that impressive lately and Wout Poels will be missed, so he's not as overwhelmingly the favorite as last year.

2. Richie Porte: He has a history of dominating one-week races and subsequently disappointing in GTs. On the other hand he has proven last year that he can be consistent over three weeks, so if he can maintain his form he can finish high.

3. Nairo Quintana: The theory is that he should be better in his second GT. I hope for him the theory is right. The Alpine stages should suit him, especially the finish on the Izoard. He needs to be at least a minute ahead before the final time trial.

4. Alberto Contador: If he can reach the shape of his good old days he's still a candidate, and he knows that winning one more TdF would be huge. The good thing about him is that he'll be willing to play all or nothing, which might make the Tour more interesting than last year.

5. Romain Bardet: It will be hard to equal his second place from last year, but the capricious course contains several stages that could benefit his attacking style. I like his attitude and his sense of initiative, but I still have the feeling that he's one level beneath the big boys.

6. Fabio Aru: Last year was quite disappointing and he's had health problems this year, but maybe he found his shape back just in time. However the opposition here will be harder than at the national championship.

7. Alejandro Valverde: He keeps saying his only goal is to work for Quintana - by being high in the GC himself, which reminds me of Hinault in '86. Unfortunately you can't win the Tour by just taking the uphill sprints.

8. Jakob Fuglsang: Sometimes he looks like a champion, but he has yet to confirm that in a GT. Keeping two irons in the fire might be the right strategy for Astana.

9. Daniel Martin: He's not afraid to attack and he has shown a good form in the Dauphiné. He outsider status gives him a certain freedom.

10. Thibaut Pinot: After a decent Giro he might focus on a stage win and the polka dots, but this doesn't exclude a top 10 place.

11. Esteban Chaves: He didn't race much this year, but he's usually at his best in the third week of a GT. I would like to see him do well, but I'm not sure about his shape.

12. Robert Gesink: After a lot of bad luck he has come back. He's currently low profile, but his shape is fine. He might make the top 10 again, or go stage hunting like in the Vuelta.

13. Andrew Talansky: After his fifth place in the Vuelta a decent result should be possible.

14. Warren Barguil: France's third guy, candidate for the top 10.

15. Louis Meintjes: Good shape, but he has his limlitations.

16. Rafal Majka: He'd better focus on a stage win or the polka dots.

17. Simon Yates: I doubt whether he can equal his brother's performance of last year.

18. Pierre Rolland: Will probably ride for a stage win and the polka dots.

19. Sergio Henao: Team Sky has at least four riders who could finish high if they rode for themselves.

20. Bauke Mollema: He will have to work for Contador, but might still think of his own place.

Good post, this. I'd have put Landa in for Henao, and Latour for Barguil. I think Barguil just doesn't have it. Good rider, but doesn't seem to be cut out for GT success.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink is really going stage hunting (actually entire LottoNL are). Although I wouldn't be surprised if Roglic or Bennett end in the fringe of the top 10

 

[Escarabajo]

Where is the Betancur option!

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

It's a bold prediction, but I say one of these twenty is going to win Le Tour:
(Long post shortened)

Ya think?

Yeah, you're probably right.

 

[klintE]

Re:

14. Warren Barguil: France's third guy, candidate for the top 10.

16. Rafal Majka: He'd better focus on a stage win or the polka dots.

I love this reviews from guys who say what to do or how to ride for Majka. One of users on this forum has perfect answer to this in his signature
Anyway...
Barguil AIR was never in top10 in GT.
Maybe wasn't allowed, so I'm wiling to give him a chance
So do I for Rafal Majka who has definitely better record; he was on the podium in Vuelta'15 and 5th, 6th and 7th in Giro d'Italia.
He also has limitations - like bad TT-ing or lack of explosiveness, but still he is in top 10 climbers in the world easily, and has 6W/kg or higher.
Tour is special, not only this year, not only for watchers; for riders too
And he has his dream and even if he won't be able to solve the task he won't regret. Because he may say: at least I tried.
This year course obviously not suit him, his team is not from the top, but still it's a Race. Anything can happen

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

It's a bold prediction, but I say one of these twenty is going to win Le Tour:
(Long post shortened)

Ya think?

Yeah, you're probably right.

If Landa, Thomas or Uran wins the Tour my reputation is screwed.

14. Warren Barguil: France's third guy, candidate for the top 10.

16. Rafal Majka: He'd better focus on a stage win or the polka dots.

I love this reviews from guys who say what to do or how to ride for Majka. One of users on this forum has perfect answer to this in his signature
Anyway...
Barguil AIR was never in top10 in GT.
Maybe wasn't allowed, so I'm wiling to give him a chance

I wasn't trying to tell Majka what to do, I just think he's better as a stage hunter than as a GC rider.

Barguil is only 25, seems to have GC potential. Last year he faded away, but we'll see what he can do this year.

 

[DanielSong39]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

In most years you would feel safe only listing four or five riders, but I feel that this year, the outsiders have more of a realistic chance.

Just has a bit of an '06 vibe about it. So now all we need is an OP style revelation later this week that implicates Sky (and thus from their past Porte). And since they will already be in Germany, I can see Astana making a trip this weekend to Freiburg

 

[The Hegelian]

Order of likelihood according to betting odds:

1. Chris Froome
2. Richie Porte
3. Nairo Quintana
4. Fabio Aru
5. Alberto Contador
6. Jacob Fuglsang
7. Romain Bardet
8. Alejandro Valverde
9. Esteban Chaves

Everyone else is 100-1 or higher. I feel very safe in saying that the winner will be one of the nine.

Agree, but what about a smoky from outside that 9 for a podium?

There's always one surprise top five type performance. i.e. A.Yates last year.

I'll go with Louis Mienjtes - looked like he's stepped up a notch in the Dauphine. And maybe D.Martin.