Who wins the Tour 2017?

[Põhja Konn]

On form alone, Porte should be the out-and-out favourite, but there are question marks over his ability to sustain such a high level throughout three weeks. He kind of did that last year, but could ride his own race back then, without being targeted, attacked and forced out of his comfort zone.

Froome was below his usual level at the Dauphine, but it could have been part of the plan with Tour-Vuelta double attempt in mind. Thing that make careful, is that he showed no signs of improvement during the Dauphine (like was the case 2 years ago). His performance was surprisingly consistent with what he showed in spring, while based on previous couple of years, a significant improvement was to be expected. Question marks are definetely in the air, but even below his best, Froome is extremely difficult to beat, and has to as big a favourite as Porte.

So,

Porte, Froome - big favourites
Quintana, Contador, Aru - dark horses
The others - also rans.

It is quite likely that at least one from the last group ends up on the podium. Lot of uncertainty about everyone this time around, but I wait until PdBF, before getting my hopes up. If Froome fails to dominate there, then I may start believing in more open and unpredictable Tour.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I can't say that the gap between Valverde and Contador has been big this year. Furthermore, all were on Spanish soil, where Valverde traditionally excells at, and Contador may have been more affected by fatigue due to PN in Cata and PV.

This is all true, but I think it's the direction of the gap that is more telling. Contador has gone from a way, way better stage racer than Valverde in the early part of his career. Then the three or so years post ban he wasn't as good as before, but was still a noticeably better than stage racer than Valverde. The last two years the gap has become very close between them - almost levelled. And, in the last five months, Valverde has edged ahead in terms of performances and results.

The same has happened with Porte. So to finish above them in the Tour, Contador will have to arrest and then turn around quite a long term trend in form. Which is not impossible, but is certainly a big ask - as well as holding off the likes of Aru and Bardet if he wants to finish on the podium.

Every time they were in the same gt and both finished a gt, valverde only beat contador in le tour 2015...

Well, they've only finished the same GT twice since the 2015 Giro, so that kind of supports the point that the gap between Valverde and Contador as stage racers - which was once huge - is now almost non-existant. Or, based on this year, even in Valverde's favour. Of course, Valverde has also ridden and finished 5 GTs, and finished on the podium of the biggest one in that time, while Contador has finished just 2 in that period (no podiums), which I guess gives Valverde the edge even in recent GTs.

 

[Cookster15]

If there is one thing I hope for in this Tour other than Porte winning it would be that 34 year old Contador stays on his bike and beats 37 year old Valverde.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

And how many gt's did valverde and porte win?

Zero. The only riders in this race who have won one in the last two years are Froome, Quintana and Aru. Which is obviously why Froome and Quintana are among the favourites. Aru still needs to prove his form. Of the rest, Porte and Valverde have clearly been the strongest stage racers, which puts them among the favourites; then followed by the guys who often place well in stage races like Thomas, Spilak and Contador.

And Contador.

Well, his win is over two years ago now. That's the time period we're looking at - post his 2015 Giro win. That's 2 whole years now where he's been fairly underwhelming in stage races. It's quite a long period of time, and again suggests his par performance in this field would be about 5th. Of course he has chances to do better in the Tour, but it would take a reasonable turn around in form, or crashes, to do so.

In that period he's finished second at Paris-Nice twice (both times by less than 5 seconds), finished second at Catalunya twice, won Pais Vasco and finished second the following year. I wouldn't call that underwhelming, in fact last year he was similar to 2014 in terms of results.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

And how many gt's did valverde and porte win?

Zero. The only riders in this race who have won one in the last two years are Froome, Quintana and Aru. Which is obviously why Froome and Quintana are among the favourites. Aru still needs to prove his form. Of the rest, Porte and Valverde have clearly been the strongest stage racers, which puts them among the favourites; then followed by the guys who often place well in stage races like Thomas, Spilak and Contador.

And Contador.

Well, his win is over two years ago now. That's the time period we're looking at - post his 2015 Giro win. That's 2 whole years now where he's been fairly underwhelming in stage races. It's quite a long period of time, and again suggests his par performance in this field would be about 5th. Of course he has chances to do better in the Tour, but it would take a reasonable turn around in form, or crashes, to do so.

In that period he's finished second at Paris-Nice twice (both times by less than 5 seconds), finished second at Catalunya twice, won Pais Vasco and finished second the following year. I wouldn't call that underwhelming, in fact last year he was similar to 2014 in terms of results.

Yeah, it's certainly not a bad record. But it's not great for a rider used to winning those races. The fact is he's been beaten by riders like Henao, Thomas and Valverde, who he used to swat aside with ease in previous years. That is a bit underwhelming for someone of Contador's status - someone who earlier in his career was undoubtedly one of the best stage racers of his generation.

The trend for him since the 2015 Giro suggests decline in the last two years - I don't think there's any doubt about that. He hasn't even won a non-TT stage at world tour level for absolutely ages. While Porte and (somewhat improbably) Valverde seem to be improving as stage racers to the point where they have overtaken Contador this year in terms of results and dominance.

The point is that Contador is only the 4th or 5th best stage racer at the Tour in terms of results and performances in the last two years. So, 4th or 5th is a par performance for him and would be a decent achievement. All the talk of him winning I think is putting unfair expectations on him - and even 3rd place would be a very good result at this stage in his career.

 

[Ruby United]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But you're a blind fanboy... so I don't take your opinion too serious. Dfa was talking in the last 2 years

Let's not get personal. As I always point out in any debate, argue against the argument not the person arguing.
Isn't that the point of a debate?

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

I just hope that at the end of his career we don't look back at 2014 and wonder what could have been.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: Re:

I just hope that at the end of his career we don't look back at 2014 and wonder what could have been.

If Contador hadn't crashed maybe he finishes second in the Tour, 3 or 4 minutes behind.

He did win the Vuelta so it was still a good year.

At this point I'm starting to wonder whether Aru and Fuglsang have a better chance of winning the Tour. Aru was marked for superstardom not too long ago and Fuglsang always had the goods to be a GC contender; he was just marked for the (super) domestique role.

 

[Ruby United]

Re: Re:

I just hope that at the end of his career we don't look back at 2014 and wonder what could have been.

If Contador hadn't crashed maybe he finishes second in the Tour, 3 or 4 minutes behind.

He did win the Vuelta so it was still a good year.

At this point I'm starting to wonder whether Aru and Fuglsang have a better chance of winning the Tour. Aru was marked for superstardom not too long ago and Fuglsang always had the goods to be a GC contender; he was just marked for the (super) domestique role.

No ways, sorry. About as likely as McGregor beating Mayweather.
It aint gonna happen.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But you're a blind fanboy... so I don't take your opinion too serious. Dfa was talking in the last 2 years

Great argument. What does that make some others on this forum then, I wonder..

You changed your signature, which stated that you are a Nairo and Don Alejandro fanboy IIRC . Being a fanboy is not wrong as long as you stay somewhat objective (somewhat ) and give all the riders their due. You do that consistently. I like you Valv.piti. What I'm afraid will happen for your two favorites is that by the time Movistar realizes that Quintana can't win, Valverde will have buried himself as a dom and be too far to be a factor. This design is so perfect for him. Quintana won't be 100%, the Giro took its toll, I'm afraid. Valverde is the most consistent rider in the World. He will ITT well, outsprint for time bonuses, he can do anything. He's probably better than he's ever been. On an explosive finish, he's the best. I agree that Valverde is better than Contador: it wasn't the case a decade ago, or five years ago. But right now, I would bet my dolar on Alejandro.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Have you departed already?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I have a feeling of a Richie Porte upset

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

And a kiss from one of his fan boys here too please

 

[Pennino]

With all due respect to all opinions of yours, since when is form shown in week long stage races decisive for someone's result in a GT? I don't get it. How often have we seen some promising riding in a first MTF to fade out completely later in the Tour (or whichever GT)? So 32yo Porte suddenly belongs to the Big 3 all though he's never achieved something decent in a GT. That's a interesting point of view, but please don't make fools of yourself by continuously stating that like a stone hard fact.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

With all due respect to all opinions of yours, since when is form shown in week long stage races decisive for someone's result in a GT? I don't get it. How often have we seen some promising riding in a first MTF to fade out completely later in the Tour (or whichever GT)? So 32yo Porte suddenly belongs to the Big 3 all though he's never achieved something decent in a GT. That's a interesting point of view, but please don't make fools of yourself by continuously stating that like a stone hard fact.

there's nothing decisive, but it's clearly quite indicative when it comes to riders who historically fight out for the win in any one week races they participate. yes, porte hasn't podiumed a gt thus far and quite likely will never do, however he obviously has the potential, probably the biggest potential amongst riders who have never been grand tour podium finishers. Potential is already more than enough to rate him as second or third favourite. porte failing miserably won't be surprising as he has a track record of getting screwed up in grand tours, but him winning the tour will hardly surprise too many people either, given the level he is delivering this season.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

With all due respect to all opinions of yours, since when is form shown in week long stage races decisive for someone's result in a GT? I don't get it. How often have we seen some promising riding in a first MTF to fade out completely later in the Tour (or whichever GT)? So 32yo Porte suddenly belongs to the Big 3 all though he's never achieved something decent in a GT. That's a interesting point of view, but please don't make fools of yourself by continuously stating that like a stone hard fact.

there's nothing decisive, but it's clearly quite indicative when it comes to riders who historically fight out for the win in any one week races they participate. yes, porte hasn't podiumed a gt thus far and quite likely will never do, however he obviously has the potential, probably the biggest potential amongst riders who have never been grand tour podium finishers. Potential is already more than enough to rate him as second or third favourite. porte failing miserably won't be surprising as he has a track record of getting screwed up in grand tours, but him winning the tour will hardly surprise too many people either, given the level he is delivering this season.

Nicely put. Porte is basically like a wildcard for the race. We know he has the potential to take enough time in the mountains to win, but also his history and questionable recovery makes him really unreliable. Other big riders though, like Valverde, Quintana and Contador are much more consistent; the years when they do very well in stage races, they do well in GTs. When they don't do well in stage races, they tend not to perform well in GTs.

 

[Rollthedice]

Christopher "Dawg" Froome.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Christopher "Dawg" Froome.

Can someone explain me, please, why is Froome called "dawg"?

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

With all due respect to all opinions of yours, since when is form shown in week long stage races decisive for someone's result in a GT? I don't get it. How often have we seen some promising riding in a first MTF to fade out completely later in the Tour (or whichever GT)? So 32yo Porte suddenly belongs to the Big 3 all though he's never achieved something decent in a GT. That's a interesting point of view, but please don't make fools of yourself by continuously stating that like a stone hard fact.

Didn't he ride well in the Tour last year ? Why is calling Porte the winner any worse than calling Contador the winner ? Most people acknowledge Froome is the one to beat but can Porte be written off completely ?

 

[phil-i-am]

Born and raised in Kenya. Whatttuppp dawgg?!

GC will be tight. One weaker day can end you hopes for top places. Froomey is obvious favourite, but I can see Porte giving him a hard time. Aru to step up and bring his A game.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

I'll try to take a few photos and yell a few spanish words, you know, vamos and venga, but I can't promise a kiss for the fan girls! If I get the chance, however....

Im also surprised that my drunk, halfway trolling statement on Valverde didn't get picked on more. That must mean people agree. Lmao.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

I'll try to take a few photos and yell a few spanish words, you know, vamos and venga, but I can't promise a kiss for the fan girls! If I get the chance, however....

Im also surprised that my drunk, halfway trolling statement on Valverde didn't get picked on more. That must mean people agree. Lmao.

TBF if you we disputed your Valverde statement by saying another rider, then we would sound like fanboys as well

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Christopher "Dawg" Froome.

Can someone explain me, please, why is Froome called "dawg"?

Actually it comes from Michelle Cound who coined the nickname ‘Froome dog’ for his loyalty to Wiggins. Sounds better though than "murungaru".