Who wins the Tour 2017?

[WildspokeJoe]

Re: Re:

Every year there is a list of 7 to 10 riders 'who can win the Tour' but in the end, it's really only 2 or 3. Although it's super hard to bet against Froome and his stout SKY team, I selected Porte.

He's had an excellent lead up to the Tour with his only misstep being not winning the Dauphine outright. Porte knows what it takes to win and he's hungry. His team is as strong as Froome's and they are 100% riding for him.

Eh? are you having a laugh?

They just released the team. I was wrong. Sky's team is head and shoulders above BMC.

Damiano Caruso (Ita), Alessandro De Marchi (Ita), Stefan Küng (Swi), Amaël Moinard (Fra), Richie Porte (Aus), Nicolas Roche (Irl), Michael Schär (Swi), Greg Van Avermaet (Bel), Danilo Wyss (Swi).

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Every year there is a list of 7 to 10 riders 'who can win the Tour' but in the end, it's really only 2 or 3. Although it's super hard to bet against Froome and his stout SKY team, I selected Porte.

He's had an excellent lead up to the Tour with his only misstep being not winning the Dauphine outright. Porte knows what it takes to win and he's hungry. His team is as strong as Froome's and they are 100% riding for him.

Eh? are you having a laugh?

They just released the team. I was wrong. Sky's team is head and shoulders above BMC.

Damiano Caruso (Ita), Alessandro De Marchi (Ita), Stefan Küng (Swi), Amaël Moinard (Fra), Richie Porte (Aus), Nicolas Roche (Irl), Michael Schär (Swi), Greg Van Avermaet (Bel), Danilo Wyss (Swi).

Sky's team is amazing. Embarrassment of riches.

 

[latino]

Sky will dominate, and Froome will win with a few minutes to spare, I don't doubt that.
Contador, Quintana and Porte will not be allowed to attack, and even if they do, they won't go very far.
The Sky train will pull them back in.

I'm more interested in the battles for the remaining places, and for the best climbs.
Valverde, Chaves, Aru, Landa, Majka, Pinot, and Bardet.
Even more so with the wildcards Fuglsang, Buchman, Dan Martin and Pierre Roland.
I think those battles will be much more interesting.

Also, Sagan is coming back for his 6th green jersey, the parcours is perfect for him this year
The sprinters are going to get some headaches because of him.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

Save the quote for after the Tour.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

Yep. The two guys who have dominated most decent stage races going this season between them. If Contador is going to finish ahead of them, he has to reverse the respective form curves of the last two seasons. Obviously not impossible, but not probable either.

 

[Cookster15]

I hope for Porte but this is tough to pick.

IF Porte stays on his bike, IF Porte hasn't peaked too early. IF Porte can defend in the mountains. That's a of of IFs.

I think Froome has he least number of IFs so he deserves favouritism and that is who I voted for.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

Oops...I read Valverde and Bardet. No I agree that Porte could get the better of AC. Valverde....don't think so. What he did earlier in the year won't mean anything for July.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

Oops...I read Valverde and Bardet. No I agree that Porte could get the better of AC. Valverde....don't think so. What he did earlier in the year won't mean anything for July.

You may well be right. Especially if Valverde ends up working for Quintana - and of course, he is still prone to the odd bad day in GTs. But, it would still be a recent turn around in form for Contador to outride him. All the evidence this year suggests Valverde is the better climber and better time triallist, and of course a better hunter of bonus seconds.

Anyway, the point was that 4th/5th is kind of par for Contador based on his form for two years now and would be a decent, solid result for him. To finish on the lower steps of the podium he'd have to get the better of at least two of Froome, Quintana, Porte and Valverde - which would be a pretty impressive achievement and turn around in form (unless, of course, crashes rear their head again).

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But Contador is the better rider in gt's.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But Contador is the better rider in gt's.

He hasn't been in the last two years, since the 2015 Giro.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But Contador is the better rider in gt's.

Is he tho?

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

Yep. The two guys who have dominated most decent stage races going this season between them. If Contador is going to finish ahead of them, he has to reverse the respective form curves of the last two seasons. Obviously not impossible, but not probable either.

But you said in the last 2 years...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.

Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:

Yep. The two guys who have dominated most decent stage races going this season between them. If Contador is going to finish ahead of them, he has to reverse the respective form curves of the last two seasons. Obviously not impossible, but not probable either.

But you said in the last 2 years...

Well yeah. In fact, they've both won more stage races in the last five months than Contador has won in the last two years.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But you're a blind fanboy... so I don't take your opinion too serious. Dfa was talking in the last 2 years

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But you're a blind fanboy... so I don't take your opinion too serious. Dfa was talking in the last 2 years

Great argument. What does that make some others on this forum then, I wonder..

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.[/quote]
Valverde and porte? :surprised: :surprised:[/quote]
Yep. The two guys who have dominated most decent stage races going this season between them. If Contador is going to finish ahead of them, he has to reverse the respective form curves of the last two seasons. Obviously not impossible, but not probable either.[/quote]
But you said in the last 2 years...[/quote]
Well yeah. In fact, they've both won more stage races in the last five months than Contador has won in the last two years.[/quote]
And how many gt's did valverde and porte win?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

And how many gt's did valverde and porte win?

Zero. The only riders in this race who have won one in the last two years are Froome, Quintana and Aru. Which is obviously why Froome and Quintana are among the favourites. Aru still needs to prove his form. Of the rest, Porte and Valverde have clearly been the strongest stage racers, which puts them among the favourites; then followed by the guys who often place well in stage races like Thomas, Spilak and Contador.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

And how many gt's did valverde and porte win?

Zero. The only riders in this race who have won one in the last two years are Froome, Quintana and Aru. Which is obviously why Froome and Quintana are among the favourites. Aru still needs to prove his form. Of the rest, Porte and Valverde have clearly been the strongest stage racers, which puts them among the favourites; then followed by the guys who often place well in stage races like Thomas, Spilak and Contador.

And Contador.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But Contador is the better rider in gt's.

Is he tho?

Well Contador has won 7 gt's, Valverde 1. Ofc Valverde generally was a weaker climber compared to Contador when Contador won all these races, which is why Contador hasn't only won more gt's but also more one week races, so I get what you mean. Nevertheless I think Contador's improvement from one week races to gt's has always been bigger.

 

[Red Rick]

I can't say that the gap between Valverde and Contador has been big this year. Furthermore, all were on Spanish soil, where Valverde traditionally excells at, and Contador may have been more affected by fatigue due to PN in Cata and PV.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

And how many gt's did valverde and porte win?

Zero. The only riders in this race who have won one in the last two years are Froome, Quintana and Aru. Which is obviously why Froome and Quintana are among the favourites. Aru still needs to prove his form. Of the rest, Porte and Valverde have clearly been the strongest stage racers, which puts them among the favourites; then followed by the guys who often place well in stage races like Thomas, Spilak and Contador.

And Contador.

Well, his win is over two years ago now. That's the time period we're looking at - post his 2015 Giro win. That's 2 whole years now where he's been fairly underwhelming in stage races. It's quite a long period of time, and again suggests his par performance in this field would be about 5th. Of course he has chances to do better in the Tour, but it would take a reasonable turn around in form, or crashes, to do so.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I can't say that the gap between Valverde and Contador has been big this year. Furthermore, all were on Spanish soil, where Valverde traditionally excells at, and Contador may have been more affected by fatigue due to PN in Cata and PV.

This is all true, but I think it's the direction of the gap that is more telling. Contador has gone from a way, way better stage racer than Valverde in the early part of his career. Then the three or so years post ban he wasn't as good as before, but was still a noticeably better than stage racer than Valverde. The last two years the gap has become very close between them - almost levelled. And, in the last five months, Valverde has edged ahead in terms of performances and results.

The same has happened with Porte. So to finish above them in the Tour, Contador will have to arrest and then turn around quite a long term trend in form. Which is not impossible, but is certainly a big ask - as well as holding off the likes of Aru and Bardet if he wants to finish on the podium.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

I can't say that the gap between Valverde and Contador has been big this year. Furthermore, all were on Spanish soil, where Valverde traditionally excells at, and Contador may have been more affected by fatigue due to PN in Cata and PV.

This is all true, but I think it's the direction of the gap that is more telling. Contador has gone from a way, way better stage racer than Valverde in the early part of his career. Then the three or so years post ban he wasn't as good as before, but was still a noticeably better than stage racer than Valverde. The last two years the gap has become very close between them - almost levelled. And, in the last five months, Valverde has edged ahead in terms of performances and results.

The same has happened with Porte. So to finish above them in the Tour, Contador will have to arrest and then turn around quite a long term trend in form. Which is not impossible, but is certainly a big ask - as well as holding off the likes of Aru and Bardet if he wants to finish on the podium.

Every time they were in the same gt and both finished a gt, valverde only beat contador in le tour 2015...