Who wins the Tour 2017?

[Laplaz]

The more i look at the route, the more i think its taylor-made for Aru.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

Good luck, I tried, but failed
Another chance next weekend

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Well as I said, Im going to Dussedorf for the only purpose of supporting the best rider since Hinault, Alejandro Don Valverde Belmonte. See you in Germany suckers.

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

Good luck, I tried, but failed
Another chance next weekend

DO IT!

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Regarding Porte. Bad luck cost him a podium. His form is better this year. I'm sure he will be very disappointed if he doesn't podium this year. The current betting odds tell the story.

 

[latino]

Re: Re:

...
Didn't he ride well in the Tour last year ? Why is calling Porte the winner any worse than calling Contador the winner ? Most people acknowledge Froome is the one to beat but can Porte be written off completely ?

Simply because Contador has won the Tour twice, the Giro twice, the Vuelta 3 times and when he didn't win, he finished in the podium or at least top 5 in most GTs (when he didn't crash).
His favoritism is backed up by his results.

Porte won bupkis apart from the Paris-Nice, zero GTs, best place in a GT was 7th in the 2010 Giro.
He has a lot of potential yes, but no results yet.
He needs a podium or at least a top 5 in a GT to be considered a favorite.

 

[phil-i-am]

Well, he did top 5 in TDF last year. Barring bad lack he's likely to beat Contador in GC.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Well, he did top 5 in TDF last year. Barring bad lack he's likely to beat Contador in GC.

Bad luck can happen to anyone, but Porte is clearly a more complete rider than Bertie right now. He should beat him.

 

[Bolder]

I went with Super Fabio. I took it as "who do you WANT to win the TdF."

If I had money on it, given that Froome would probably be even odds, Porte maybe 3-2 and Quintana, 4-2, I'd go with Porte. He's due.

Edit to add that in many ways, a Valverde win at age 37 would be way more shocking than a Porte win, an Aru win or even a Contador win (I happen to think he's already crested his hill, maybe not exactly "over the hill" but I'm not sure he can win a 3-week tour this year).

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I went with Super Fabio. I took it as "who do you WANT to win the TdF."

If I had money on it, given that Froome would probably be even odds, Porte maybe 3-2 and Quintana, 4-2, I'd go with Porte. He's due.

The latest odds are a bit surprising I think. Froome slightly over evens, Porte 7/4 and then Quintana at 13/2. Followed by the also-rans all at way over 10/1. So the bookies seem to think it is a probably two horse race with one dangerous outsider. Either that, or Anglos bet a lot more on their own riders than other nationalities!

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

I went with Super Fabio. I took it as "who do you WANT to win the TdF."

If I had money on it, given that Froome would probably be even odds, Porte maybe 3-2 and Quintana, 4-2, I'd go with Porte. He's due.

The latest odds are a bit surprising I think. Froome slightly over evens, Porte 7/4 and then Quintana at 13/2. Followed by the also-rans all at way over 10/1. So the bookies seem to think it is a probably two horse race with one dangerous outsider. Either that, or Anglos bet a lot more on their own riders than other nationalities!

I was too lazy to check the odds, but I think Quintana might be cheap at 13-2, so I'll go with him but hedge with Porte. 7-4 is a really boring way to make money!

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

...
Didn't he ride well in the Tour last year ? Why is calling Porte the winner any worse than calling Contador the winner ? Most people acknowledge Froome is the one to beat but can Porte be written off completely ?

Simply because Contador has won the Tour twice, the Giro twice, the Vuelta 3 times and when he didn't win, he finished in the podium or at least top 5 in most GTs (when he didn't crash).
His favoritism is backed up by his results.

Porte won bupkis apart from the Paris-Nice, zero GTs, best place in a GT was 7th in the 2010 Giro.
He has a lot of potential yes, but no results yet.
He needs a podium or at least a top 5 in a GT to be considered a favorite.

The past is the past. Contador has not made the Tour podium since 2010 for a variety of reasons and some bad luck. Porte also had some bad luck last year but of course that must be different. Contador is nowhere near the rider he was. Porte is showing career best form while Contador seems to be in training mode depending on who you believe. Wasn't Porte in the top five last year ? I would be surprised if Porte finished behind Contador this year. Contador can't be written off as lots of incidents can happen in a three week race but nothing Contador has done this year convinces me he can win the race or maybe not even podium. Contador has had a great career but there is much more doubt about him than there used to be.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

...
Didn't he ride well in the Tour last year ? Why is calling Porte the winner any worse than calling Contador the winner ? Most people acknowledge Froome is the one to beat but can Porte be written off completely ?

Simply because Contador has won the Tour twice, the Giro twice, the Vuelta 3 times and when he didn't win, he finished in the podium or at least top 5 in most GTs (when he didn't crash).
His favoritism is backed up by his results.

Porte won bupkis apart from the Paris-Nice, zero GTs, best place in a GT was 7th in the 2010 Giro.
He has a lot of potential yes, but no results yet.
He needs a podium or at least a top 5 in a GT to be considered a favorite.

1 Chris Froome (GBR) A yellow jersey. Team Sky 89h 04' 48"
2 Romain Bardet (FRA) AG2R La Mondiale + 4' 05"
3 Nairo Quintana (COL) A white jersey with a yellow background on the number bib. Movistar Team + 4' 21
4 Adam Yates (GBR) A white jersey. Orica–BikeExchange + 4' 42"
5 Richie Porte (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 5' 17"

And that was with a bad mechanical and a crash. Really, he could easily have been 2nd last year.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

I'm here. Form an orderly queue.

 

[latino]

Re: Re:

...
Didn't he ride well in the Tour last year ? Why is calling Porte the winner any worse than calling Contador the winner ? Most people acknowledge Froome is the one to beat but can Porte be written off completely ?

Simply because Contador has won the Tour twice, the Giro twice, the Vuelta 3 times and when he didn't win, he finished in the podium or at least top 5 in most GTs (when he didn't crash).
His favoritism is backed up by his results.

Porte won bupkis apart from the Paris-Nice, zero GTs, best place in a GT was 7th in the 2010 Giro.
He has a lot of potential yes, but no results yet.
He needs a podium or at least a top 5 in a GT to be considered a favorite.

1 Chris Froome (GBR) A yellow jersey. Team Sky 89h 04' 48"
2 Romain Bardet (FRA) AG2R La Mondiale + 4' 05"
3 Nairo Quintana (COL) A white jersey with a yellow background on the number bib. Movistar Team + 4' 21
4 Adam Yates (GBR) A white jersey. Orica–BikeExchange + 4' 42"
5 Richie Porte (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 5' 17"

And that was with a bad mechanical and a crash. Really, he could easily have been 2nd last year.

True, don't know how I missed that

Still, I don't think he's ready to win the Tour, especially with the BMC lineup this year.

 

[RedheadDane]

1 Chris Froome (GBR) A yellow jersey. Team Sky 89h 04' 48"
2 Romain Bardet (FRA) AG2R La Mondiale + 4' 05"
3 Nairo Quintana (COL) A white jersey with a yellow background on the number bib. Movistar Team + 4' 21
4 Adam Yates (GBR) A white jersey. Orica–BikeExchange + 4' 42"
5 Richie Porte (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 5' 17"

Is this what happens if you copy-paste off Wikipedia? :lol:

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

1 Chris Froome (GBR) A yellow jersey. Team Sky 89h 04' 48"
2 Romain Bardet (FRA) AG2R La Mondiale + 4' 05"
3 Nairo Quintana (COL) A white jersey with a yellow background on the number bib. Movistar Team + 4' 21
4 Adam Yates (GBR) A white jersey. Orica–BikeExchange + 4' 42"
5 Richie Porte (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 5' 17"

Is this what happens if you copy-paste off Wikipedia? :lol:

yes it is!!

 

[portugal11]

Any news about cav?

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

1 Chris Froome (GBR) A yellow jersey. Team Sky 89h 04' 48"
2 Romain Bardet (FRA) AG2R La Mondiale + 4' 05"
3 Nairo Quintana (COL) A white jersey with a yellow background on the number bib. Movistar Team + 4' 21
4 Adam Yates (GBR) A white jersey. Orica–BikeExchange + 4' 42"
5 Richie Porte (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 5' 17"

Is this what happens if you copy-paste off Wikipedia? :lol:

yes it is!!

I was really confused about how Quintana managed to get white last year... :lol:

Any news about cav?

The latest news I've read is that... he still doesn't know.
Yeah, useful. I know...

 

[staubsauger]

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I agree. I think contador will destroy porte in the third week because he is very agressive and he smells riders weaknesses

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Porte eventually took more benefits from a super-conservative ridden race than his misfortunes cost him. He might be up there after two weeks. But there ain't no chance he lasts in the top 10 if the race is on day in day out. He's gonna crack completely at some point in that case. I believe this year we gonna see some firepower. Porte might finish in the top 15. Half an hour down.

This has been my theory as well - although I have to say I'm beginning to doubt it slightly given Porte's form this season. But it's definitely true that last year's race was pretty unusual and unrepresentative of how the mountains are normally ridden in the Tour - not punishing riders for having the bad day in the way that most editions would do.

I agree. I think contador will destroy porte in the third week because he is very agressive and he smells riders weaknesses

Maybe the old Contador not the current one. Some people talk about Contador like it is 2009 still.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Give AC a kiss for all his fan girls here.

I'm here. Form an orderly queue.

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

Also, Sagan is coming back for his 6th green jersey, the parcours is perfect for him this year
The sprinters are going to get some headaches because of him.

He's sprinter too.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

Valverde is 3 for 3 in stage races against Contador so far, including several stage victories and the Ardennes-double. If Valverde doesn't devote himself to Quintana I seriously can't see Contador finish ahead of Valverde, but lets see.

But you're a blind fanboy... so I don't take your opinion too serious. Dfa was talking in the last 2 years

Great argument. What does that make some others on this forum then, I wonder..

Well it's your kind of argument, at least at the past it was.