Who wins the Tour 2017?

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

**** bookies have birdsong as 5th favourite, wtf?

Its standard. Not necessarily because he is the 5th best rider, because Dauphine showed his ceiling was relatively high and therefore giving him an outside shot.

And let me say it again: He won it differently than Talansky, by following Porte and striking on the last day. Talansky didnt have a chance to stay with Contador in 14.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

**** bookies have birdsong as 5th favourite, wtf?

Its standard. Not necessarily because he is the 5th best rider, because Dauphine showed his ceiling was relatively high and therefore giving him an outside shot.

And let me say it again: He won it differently than Talansky, by following Porte and striking on the last day. Talansky didnt have a chance to stay with Contador in 14.

Yep you are definitely right. Fuglsang won because he was, along with Porte, the strongest climber in Dauphiné. As a consequence, I think his odds are absolutely fine. Talansky won even though he was not the best climber of the race as evident on Col du Béal and on Finhaut Emosson. I don't remember how Talansky's Tour-odds were after he won the Dauphiné, but I'm guessing they were still somewhat high because his win was more circumstantial.

 

[sir fly]

Chaves

Froome, Quintana, Porte, Contador
Bardet, Valverde, Aru, Martin, Fuglsang, Yates.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re: Re:

Dan Martin will win the Tour ...... if
1) The race is changed into a series of one-day races over semi-mountainous courses with the overall determined by points.

That actually wasn't far off the truth last year, in that the top 10 were fairly equally matched in the mountains, so in practise riders were racing for a few seconds gain in the last km plus bonus seconds at the line. Martin's problem was attacking too far out - any time he went from 3-4km out he went backwards and any time he Valverde'd it in the closing few hundred metres he moved up. That ignores the time trials of course.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

**** bookies have birdsong as 5th favourite, wtf?

Its standard. Not necessarily because he is the 5th best rider, because Dauphine showed his ceiling was relatively high and therefore giving him an outside shot.

And let me say it again: He won it differently than Talansky, by following Porte and striking on the last day. Talansky didnt have a chance to stay with Contador in 14.

Yep you are definitely right. Fuglsang won because he was, along with Porte, the strongest climber in Dauphiné. As a consequence, I think his odds are absolutely fine. Talansky won even though he was not the best climber of the race as evident on Col du Béal and on Finhaut Emosson. I don't remember how Talansky's Tour-odds were after he won the Dauphiné, but I'm guessing they were still somewhat high because his win was more circumstantial.

Somewhat high, but only because Contador and Froome where top favourites, Nibali an outsider, Valv a pseudo outsider and everyone else... yeah, look at the TdF results. The level was very low.

 

[HelloDolly]

Contador ...I have never seen a man so happy to be so sh** at the Dauphine

Either he has some brilliant reverse psychology plan thingy going on where he rides under the radar and everyone ignores him and thinks he is done but he comes out and blows them all away

Or else he has lost the plot big time

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

Contador ...I have never seen a man so happy to be so sh** at the Dauphine

Either he has some brilliant reverse psychology plan thingy going on where he rides under the radar and everyone ignores him and thinks he is done but he comes out and blows them all away

Or else he has lost the plot big time

There's a good chance that Contador has hone batsh*t insane in the past few years and we just assume it's mind games

 

[DanielSong39]

Betfair odds:

Froome +180
Porte +230
Quintana +740
Contador +2100
Aru +2350
Fuglsang +2700
Bardet +3900
Valverde +5900

All other cyclists at +10000 or higher

So that gives you an idea of what to expect.

 

[DanielSong39]

Percentage wise:

Froome 35%
Porte 30%
Field (all others) 35%

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

after nibs spontaneously finding 50 extra watts in three weeks between dauphine and tour and taking the big one with a 10 minutes margin, we'd better never say plain 'no'. porte was million times said 'huh, porte, are you fricking serious? he'll never ever... even top 10 in a gt' before and he's a clear #2 a few years later on. so I wouldn't write dan martin off completely. I don't share some people referring to the second gt strategy for nairo. Anyway, last year he managed to beat the post-tour froome (equal terms). post-giro chaves, and injured contador in the vuelta. fresh sky, porte, contador and bardet is a diffrerent story. though, his odds, about 8:1, seem the most profitable to me.

Froome went to the Olympics.
Contador won the Vuelta for Quintana.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

It's this year or never. It would have been heresy of me not voting for the Don.

Thing is, he keeps saying he's working for Nairo.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

I voted Froome, partly because he has the best team around him and Porte has less strengths than him.

If someone vote Pinot, you can be sure he has Lino Ventura as avatar.

...and sure enough it was .

I don't think that Tibopino will win: FDJ's lineup (I'm assuming) is all for Demare to get a stage or two.

Porte's bad luck can't go on forever. After the "Dumoulin will have a bad day" that never happened, I think that LRP will win. 45%. Her knows Sky and Froome inside and out. No small advantage. Froome second 35%, until you beat the champ. he's the champ. Quintana third 10%, all the Giro guys are weak these days, you can't go from spent to winning this against Porte and Froome with so little time. Contador 4th, 5%, past his prime. I would like him to win and give great entertainment, no way. Aru 5th, 5%: been there done that, not at the TdF though. The rest is Majka, Bardet...for 6th.

Or Pinot wins the yellow on PDBF, pounds Sky into submission, outsprint Sagan for time bonuses...mot his plan, not going to happen. Still. Thibaut gets my vote. I have my #1 fanboy spot to defend .

EDIT: Valverde the joker.

 

[MovistarRider]

What I hope: Nairo or Alejandro
What I think: Porte
What I fear: Froome

 

[The Hegelian]

In some ways I think Froome is actually more of a favourite this year than in years past - despite his form looking less sharp.

This is because in years past, he has always faced challengers with serious GT winning pedigree. But I think Contador is done. Quintana has a huge Giro question mark. Nibali is not there.

I think his two biggest threats are Porte and Bardet - both of whom have come of age, but are still fundamentally pretenders to the throne. And historically, pretenders usually have to go very close to winning before they actually do win. One of the two will get very close, and then learn what it takes to go all the way.

There's no way Valverde has a tdf win in his legs. Maybe Aru is a serious contender - looked good at the Dauphine - but you never know with Aru.

 

[Escarabajo]

I think this is the year when everyone has a big question mark. So by elimination and selecting the most probable among all questionable riders I pick Froome.

 

[Katabatic]

When the field is more level, team strength plays a bigger factor. And Froome has by far the strongest team. He's the favorite until someone proves they can knock him off the top perch.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Voted Contador, though that is probably wishful thinking.

Not sure why Valverde isn't rated a better chance. I really think he can beat Quintana. He's fresher, in great form over the season, and the course really suits him. There are not that many HIGH mountains.

Aru is also a pretty big threat.

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

Bardet (more hope).

I've changed my mind. Majka will win. Why is he not an option?

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

after nibs spontaneously finding 50 extra watts in three weeks between dauphine and tour and taking the big one with a 10 minutes margin, we'd better never say plain 'no'. porte was million times said 'huh, porte, are you fricking serious? he'll never ever... even top 10 in a gt' before and he's a clear #2 a few years later on. so I wouldn't write dan martin off completely. I don't share some people referring to the second gt strategy for nairo. Anyway, last year he managed to beat the post-tour froome (equal terms). post-giro chaves, and injured contador in the vuelta. fresh sky, porte, contador and bardet is a diffrerent story. though, his odds, about 8:1, seem the most profitable to me.

Froome went to the Olympics.
Contador won the Vuelta for Quintana.

I'm not arguing and froome was a tiny bit stronger than quintana induvidually in the vuelta from my perspective, but still quintana won the overall mainly by virtue of huge effort made by movistar and saxo-Tinkov on the stage to formigal. furthermore, froome also takes his tours owing to his teammates, so it's even scenarios.

 

[jens_attacks]

Alberto contador velasco will win this bike race.

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

Alberto contador velasco will win this bike race.

Or the other Berto - Rigoberto Uran Uran, aka Rigoberto Uran Uran Uran aka Rigoberto Dagoberto Uran Neptun Pluto.

P.S. would you believe there are people whose surname is Planet? Great

Edit: Contador will probably crash more than once, unfrotunately breaking both of his legs or spine to half just to show up in great form for La Vuelta where he'll place second or third overall. Not that I wish him any harm.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Yes, I should have included Fuglsang instead of Martin. I just picked Aru as the leader of Astana, and Fuglsang never crossed my mind.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

I have three contenders for the win: Bardet, Froome and Porte, They better win or I'm going to have to mow my buddies lawn the entire summer

 

[Simurgh]

Hope is that Alberto takes it, but I voted Porte, since I am not sure whether Contador still has it. And Froome hasn't looked invincible at all this year.

 

[latino]

Re:

Not sure why Valverde isn't rated a better chance. I really think he can beat Quintana. He's fresher, in great form over the season, and the course really suits him. There are not that many HIGH mountains.

Just because of the 2nd GT theory for Quintana.
If it's true, then Quintana will be at peak form in the Tour.
Valverde is still the joker though.
Maybe we'll see Movistar playing smart for a change.