Why Cadel Evans will not gain enough time on Andy Schleck in the TT.

[BYOP88]

who knows what is going to happen, Andy might drop his chain again like in tour of swiss

But I'm sure the ASO, would force all riders on the road to stop, until he'd sorted it out.

 

[cineteq]

and here is why evans will gain enough time on andy schleck

1) evans is a superior time trial specialist
2) a mountain course might have suited andy better. But on hills, evans is at least his equal if not better. (fleche wallone anyone?). A hilly tt course therefore suits evans just as much, if not more, than schleck
3) evans did the itt before in the dauphine. Andy schleck admitted he hasn't ridden it and didn't even do a recon of it!(!!!!)
4) andy schleck gave a lot of energy in 2 monster flights the past two days. I think he gave more energy than evans there
5) the yellow jersey can give you wings but it can also paralyze you and make you block.
6) and btw, it's 43 km

+100000000000

 

[mr. tibbs]

I suspect we'll see a different Andy tomorrow, a new man. He'll be swollen up with the strength of the yellow jersey, seemingly 20 pounds heavier than he looked today. His light hair will take on the dark tint of his wrath, and he will destroy the ITT, winning the stage and the Tour.

Cancellara, on the other hand, will look like an emaciated shell of his former self. The Alps were just too hard on his body. He'll have lost a dozen kilos and all form struggling up the mountains with Martin, and the rainbow skinsuit will hang in drapes and folds on his withered frame, flapping sadly in the breeze. He'll finish two minutes down, well off the pace of his surging captain.

 

[BullsFan22]

I think either way, everyone is in for a surprise. I think Evans will beat Schleck by over two minutes. This whole cyclingnews forum is pretty funny. There are hardly any riders that everyone seems to respect, or heck, even most people. Everyone is a fanboy of somebody and if it's not their rider, they hate every other rider with a passion. I think cycling is the winner this time around, no matter the outcome. We have seen (apart from the nasty, dangerous crashes during the first week and a half) some exciting, beautiful racing where everyone is racing with their hearts, and not being calculating, smug and robot-like (think Gunderson). This could be Cadel's greatest chance (ok, so he's had a quite a few good chances to win a GT), but I think he is a worthy winner. So to is Schleck, and I think if the current top three is the one we see on the podium, then that would be fair. We saw some gutsy racing from all three of them, and there is perhaps hope of a clean(er) peloton. We should enjoy these times, because they seem to be changing for the better.

 

[davestoller]

The times in Dauphine were hovering close to 1 hour. Not short.

Rain tomorrow.

On paper, Evans wins.

But as Max Testa said: Andy Shchleck did notmimpress in TT at TDSuisse.
But the rider we see here is a different man.

Evans tt'd back solo on stage to Galibier and today after mechanical other side of Galibier. He is much much stronger. He should win.
But a minutes is a big ask.

 

[VeloGirl]

Yeah. On the decline. 6 Grand Tours in 5 years and a top 10 placement in this tour - after winning one of the hardest Giro's on record 5 weeks prior and riding on a bum knee.

Personally, I look forward to watching Andy and Contador battle it out in the mountains for years to come. I hope neither one dominates every year, but rather it goes back and forth between a group of riders.

Andy has a lot of growing up to do.
And having a goal of 1st and 2nd on the podium for him and his brother - when neither have ever won a grand tour? Seriously? How about setting a goal of just 1 of them winning a grand tour first.

 

[Phlakaton]

AS asking why Evans didnt pull today... that sums up how this guy thinks.

Evans puts 1:30 into AS tomorrow. Takes Yellow.

 

[BYOP88]

AS asking why Evans didnt pull today... that sums up how this guy thinks.

Evans puts 1:30 into AS tomorrow. Takes Yellow.

Let's hope so.

 

[veganrob]

With the end of the tour drawing near and with the mountain stages weeding out the so called pretenders, and the previous champion Alberto Contador, a new era begins. This is an era where Andy Schleck will dominate the tour.

Most people believe Cadel Evans can make up the time, but the reality is that Cadel is racing for second. Here is the secret as to why:

First reason is because as Andy Schleck put it, the Maillot Jaune is said to "Give you wings." Vockler demonstrated this throughout the mountain stages, raising his ability to another level. It is certainly reasonable to believe that Andy could do the same.

Second reason is team radios. Andy will always know the time gap between him and Evans as he will be the last one to go in the time trial. Being last has a huge advantage.

Lastly, the profile of the time trial stage actually favors Andy since it is hilly. And with the enormous effort that Cadel has put in the mountain stages, you wonder if he has enough left in the tank to pull out a solid performance.

I admire Cadel Evans, he has had a great tour. But there are just too many variables going against him. Fact is, Cadel knows he needed yellow to have a real shot at winning the tour. But the reality is he'll be racing for second place in the time trial.

You're new to the sport right.

 

[Dermie]

Cadel wins (I hope)

Shrecks father (ex pro racer) says, & he should know his boy by now. But maybe he is stu*****.

Unfortunately, his father Johnny described the situation a little differently. "I don't think it's possible," he told reporters on the finish line. "Cadel Evans is one of the best time triallists in the world, and he already knows the time trial well from the Dauphine. But I still have hope, and I know that the last week of the Tour also means different parameters. Both Fränk and Andy are strong in the last week, and perhaps Cadel will have a bad day."

Evans finished sixth, at 1:20 adrift of then-stage winner Tony Martin (HTC-Highroad) on the exact same course of the race against the clock in the Dauphine one month ago.

Schleck, whose last race before the Tour was the Tour de Suisse, conceded that he had never ridden the Grenoble course and only knew it from television footage. "But I know a little bit what it's like from talking to the guys who did it in the Dauphine," he said. "Everybody tells me it's a course that suits me well, so I believe them... and I hope to show a great performance tomorrow."

 

[BillytheKid]

The times in Dauphine were hovering close to 1 hour. Not short.

Rain tomorrow.

On paper, Evans wins.

But as Max Testa said: Andy Shchleck did notmimpress in TT at TDSuisse.
But the rider we see here is a different man.

Evans tt'd back solo on stage to Galibier and today after mechanical other side of Galibier. He is much much stronger. He should win.
But a minutes is a big ask.

Evans also rode this same course in the Dauphine. Andy not. That is also a big plus for Cadel. It's possible, should be, but....

 

[sportzchick]

I suspect we'll see a different Andy tomorrow, a new man. He'll be swollen up with the strength of the yellow jersey, seemingly 20 pounds heavier than he looked today. His light hair will take on the dark tint of his wrath, and he will destroy the ITT, winning the stage and the Tour.

Cancellara, on the other hand, will look like an emaciated shell of his former self. The Alps were just too hard on his body. He'll have lost a dozen kilos and all form struggling up the mountains with Martin, and the rainbow skinsuit will hang in drapes and folds on his withered frame, flapping sadly in the breeze. He'll finish two minutes down, well off the pace of his surging captain.

you can argue that Cadel is a different man as well - in mind just as much as his racing.

The road suits him, if its rainy the conditions will worry Andy more than cadel and hes ridden it before, improved out of sight mentally...

its there for Cadel if he's good enough

 

[StyrbjornSterki]

Evans would have to be struck by a meteor or drop dead from a heart attack not to win.
ASchleck is the new Poulidor, always the bridesmaid, never the GC.

 

[hughmoore]

I posted this last night before went to bed, but given Cadel will follow Frank in the ITT, there is incentive to catch Frank and pass him on the road.

Three minute head start should be wiped out within 42km, if he passess on the road Frank, surely he will have enough time on Andy.

Would be a great statement also.


Hugh

 

[pitchnduel]

I suspect we'll see a different Andy tomorrow, a new man. He'll be swollen up with the strength of the yellow jersey, seemingly 20 pounds heavier than he looked today. His light hair will take on the dark tint of his wrath, and he will destroy the ITT, winning the stage and the Tour.

Cancellara, on the other hand, will look like an emaciated shell of his former self. The Alps were just too hard on his body. He'll have lost a dozen kilos and all form struggling up the mountains with Martin, and the rainbow skinsuit will hang in drapes and folds on his withered frame, flapping sadly in the breeze. He'll finish two minutes down, well off the pace of his surging captain.

I get it...very funny. Maybe Fabian will at least let Andy borrow his "extra special" bike circa the 2010 Classics...

 

[ricross11]

Should be a close one...Tour will be decided by 10-15 seconds perhaps.

 

[its like that]

lmao please sticky this thread after the Time Trial

 

[Lukemac]

I dont know much but heres what I do know.

After three weeks the TDF has never been more exciting.
Evans can pull the time out of AS if it goes his way.
I'll be glues to the TV late into the night tonight again.
Mondays a rest day at work.

Luke

 

[MarcusSommers]

AS mentality throughout tdf is "i dont want to lose"
CE is "i want to win"

CE will win by 10 seconds...

 

[dlwssonic]

AS mentality throughout tdf is "i dont want to lose"
CE is "i want to win"

CE will win by 10 seconds...

well said!

 

[2wheels]

The best comparison I can find is last year's final ITT. Andy and Contador had both ridden hard for three weeks, and Contador is a really good time triallist. That TT was about 50 KM, as I recall, and Andy lost less than a minute.

This TT is 8km shorter. That, plus the fact that he'll have time splits, plus my belief that Andy's just reaching a form peak and is a pretty good recuperator, make me think he has a slight advantage. Evans couldn't go with Conta this morning-- but Andy could, all the way up the Galibier. That's pretty impressive recuperation considering what Schleck had done the day before.

 

[Ferminal]

The best comparison I can find is last year's final ITT. Andy and Contador had both ridden hard for three weeks, and Contador is a really good time triallist. That TT was about 50 KM, as I recall, and Andy lost less than a minute.

That is probably the "worst" comparison.

Suggesting that Andy losing less than a minute to Contador means he will beat Evans is silly, when Contador produced his worst TT in a long time, and Andy finished in 40th place or something like that.

If Andy can only manage 40th, he will lose 1'30" to Evans, who will top10.

Put it another way, using the 2010 example, if Evans rides as well as Lancaster, Flecha, Kern, Roux, Fuglsang, Lang, Turgot, Siutsou, Maaskant, CAS, Morabito, Muravyev etc etc etc, he wins the GC.

 

[Franklin]

I suspect we'll see a different Andy tomorrow, a new man. He'll be swollen up with the strength of the yellow jersey, seemingly 20 pounds heavier than he looked today. His light hair will take on the dark tint of his wrath, and he will destroy the ITT, winning the stage and the Tour.

Cancellara, on the other hand, will look like an emaciated shell of his former self. The Alps were just too hard on his body. He'll have lost a dozen kilos and all form struggling up the mountains with Martin, and the rainbow skinsuit will hang in drapes and folds on his withered frame, flapping sadly in the breeze. He'll finish two minutes down, well off the pace of his surging captain.

LMAO... I assume they will be wearing a helmet like this:

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'm one of the few that likes both riders for the most part. I also see Andy winning a Tour in the future, as I see no indication the ASO will go back to the Mig years with 100km plus total TT distances. And with Contador likely on extended vacation...

If I were a betting man, I'd bet Cadel gains about 1:15 or so tomorrow on Andy. The old Cadel would take more than that, but he doesn't TT the way he did a few years ago, but he still knows how and has to be considered a superior time trialist, without question. I think it's a wash as to who the course favors more. I also think it's a wash between who is more tired. Both are. Andy will be inspired by the maillot jaune, but Cadel has to be inspired knowing this is his best, and probably last chance to win the Tour, or any GT for that manner. He's also been very mentally strong this Tour, better than any time in his career I believe.

Admit it. You watch the Tour on Versus and can't get enough of Bob Roll.

Post of the Tour!

 

[Cerberus]

That is probably the "worst" comparison.

Suggesting that Andy losing less than a minute to Contador means he will beat Evans is silly, when Contador produced his worst TT in a long time, and Andy finished in 40th place or something like that.

If Andy can only manage 40th, he will lose 1'30" to Evans, who will top10.

Put it another way, using the 2010 example, if Evans rides as well as Lancaster, Flecha, Kern, Roux, Fuglsang, Lang, Turgot, Siutsou, Maaskant, CAS, Morabito, Muravyev etc etc etc, he wins the GC.

Did you watch the TT last year? The wind changed so most of the people you mention "beating" Andy in the TT last year did so because of the wind or at least beat him by a larger margin because of the wind.