When you're in the trees, it's hard to see the forest. I admit I'm not in the trees, and I am looking at the forest.Krebs cycle said:You are getting caught up in history though. At least I am talking about what IS known. Using the past as your example, you are projecting speculation into the future but unless you are a biochemist or a pharmacist or something similar then you don't really have much of an idea about what you are talking about. You don't seem to have much of an idea about the major issues in doping at present nor where the development of detection methods is at, nor what the likely future direction will take.
You are talking about hypotheical new PEDs that currently do not exist as if they are going to get invented in secret without anyone else knowing about it and then falling into the hands of professional cyclists. Times have changed. Anti-doping agencies have been aware of future directions for a long time and at least one international anti-doping consortium is actively involved in working with industry to develop detection methods in concert with new products that could potentially be performance enhacing. This consortium has only existed for about 6yrs now and is already responsible for the introduction of the bio-passport system.
Be a pessimist if you like, this attitude is part of the problem itself. People need to have hope that cycling can be cleaned up.
and as for this comment "I contend it would be pretty flat line for the entire 100 years, and very close to the 100% mark." i contend you are pretty much talking rubbish here because you have little idea about what is happening except from a lay persons viewpoint.
But, technically speaking, I've got two words for ya: genetic engineering.
Human creativity and problem-solving knows no bounds.
You see me as a pessimist? I'm just being realistic. Anti-doping is an important part of the process of keeping doping from getting too out of control, but it's doomed folly to see it as "making progress" towards cleaning up the sport, as if cycling will be more clean in 2010, 2015, 2025 or 2050 than it was in 1950, 1975, 1999 or 2009...