RownhamHill said:
H'mmm. I don't think the point is that only Sky are doing these things. I think the point is, especially with regards to Wiggins, that he is doing these things now - and he wasn't doing them before. Hence it's interesting to see what he's changed in the last four years, and whether those things could help explain an improvement in performance.
By your own logic, Wiggins was significantly 'behind the 8-ball from the get go' in 2008 ('overweight' (relatively speaking), not training at altitude, racing loads on the track etc). So by extension, if he then starts doing all the passe things that everyone else is already doing (regardless of whether that includes dope), then - by your definition - you would expect to see an improvement in his performance, wouldn't you?
This is the thing that baffles me about your argument. It may well be that one of the things to improve performance that Wiggins has started doing in the last four years is drugs (although when exactly? in 2009? 2011? This year?), but regardless of that why shouldn't all the other changes/improvements had had an effect? What is it - other than your own confirmation bias - that leaves you so eager to dismiss anything other than the argument you believe in?
What is it, other than your own inability to read my entire post, that missed the fact that I pointed out Brad came 4th in 2009, partly because he was already doing those marginal gain things. Something I have pointed out 3 times in the last day in this thread.
4th.
That is not possible unless a rider is doing the things you seem to think Wiggins wasn't doing before (the argument being before Sky).
How do I know he was doing those things at Garmin? Coz JV rode with Postal. He knows about recon and cadence and training camps and altitude. And it showed. Wiggins. TdF. 4th.
Krebs is talking about Brad's time with Sky. Doing those things with Sky. And going from 4th to a dominating 2012, not just 1st at the Tour, but 1st at too many races in a row.
It goes like this, if I can paint a picture.
A = train but not specifically for the tour
B = train for the tour
C = all those little things like cadence, less racing, training camps, altitude work, losing weight etc.
Brad pre-2009:
2008
Training: A
Result: meh
Brad @ Garmin
2009
Training: B+C
Result: 70th Giro + 4th Tour de France.
Brad joins Sky
2010
Training: B+C-less racing (harder Giro?)
Result: 40th Giro + meh Tour de France.
Tim Kerrison joins Sky
2011
Training: B+C
Result: 3rd at Vuelta (I said previously, comparable to 4th @ Tour), but Froome puts 30 seconds into him in the TT.
2012
Training: B+C
Result: dominate the living snot out of 5 races in a row, including walking away with the Tour de France and Olympic TT gold medal, and putting 1:20 into Froome in the final TdF TT.
Even if in 2012 he is doing other little things (C') that he did not do in 2009, they don't add 5-7%. He is doing the same thing in training and preparation as 2009, but the result is remarkably different. Not marginally. But order of magnitude different.
I believe what I am saying agrees with Krebs in that those things (C) make a difference and you must do them to get anywhere in stage racing. I am disagreeing that they make a bigger difference at Sky than they did at Garmin or that Sky added enough extra marginal gains (C') to make that 5-7% difference. I am disagreeing that Kerrison coming on board makes any difference to anything. That's my best explanation.